Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Topeka, KS

789 
WWUS53 KTOP 010658
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
158 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

KSC111-010707-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0151.000000T0000Z-140901T0715Z/
LYON-
158 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LYON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE 
WARNED AREA

LAT...LON 3804 9597 3822 9591 3839 9582 3833 9551
      3804 9552
TIME...MOT...LOC 0657Z 273DEG 43KT 3833 9557 3802 9576

$$

KSC031-010715-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0151.000000T0000Z-140901T0715Z/
COFFEY-
158 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COFFEY COUNTY
UNTIL 215 AM CDT...

AT 155 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM WAVERLY TO 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GRIDLEY...AND MOVING
EAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LE ROY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 9597 3822 9591 3839 9582 3833 9551
      3804 9552
TIME...MOT...LOC 0657Z 273DEG 43KT 3833 9557 3802 9576

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

GARGAN

046 
WWUS53 KTOP 010707
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
207 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

KSC031-010716-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0151.000000T0000Z-140901T0715Z/
COFFEY-
207 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR COFFEY COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
215 AM CDT...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY.  HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

IN ADDITION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT.

LAT...LON 3804 9597 3822 9591 3839 9582 3833 9551
      3804 9552
TIME...MOT...LOC 0706Z 273DEG 43KT 3832 9543 3801 9562

$$

GARGAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1241 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The midnight through 3 AM period will continue to see at least some
low end potential for marginally severe hail, and perhaps localized
damaging wind gusts in the strongest storms able to downburst and
transport momentum to the surface through the inversion (refer to
recent SPC mesoscale discussion for more details).

Aside from severe potential, the potential for flash flooding is
increasing and could see additional warnings needed during the
overnight hours. The outflow from the complex of storms has pushed
into southern Kansas and stretched west-to-east while the upper
trough and overall storm motion remains east southeast nearly
parallel to the effective boundary. Moisture transport is very
impressive into and over the frontal zone into central and east
central Kansas while precipitable water values are running 2 to 2.2
inches according to RAP analysis. Dual-pol signatures have at times
indicated very heavy rainfall rates to around 2" per hour with the
heaviest activity and spotters have reported 15-20 minute periods
with 1 to 1.5 inches of rain. The orientation of the front and storm
motion suggests training of individual convective updrafts over the
same areas from southern Dickinson through Morris, Lyon, Coffey,
Anderson, southern Osage and southern Franklin counties. Dual-pol
rain estimates as of midnight range from 4" in southern Dickinson
county to 2.5" in Lyon county to 2" in Osage/Franklin counties.
Given current trends and expectations, could end up seeing a broad
swatch of 2 to 5" with locally 6+ inches possible.

There are some indications that the rear edge of the convection is
beginning to forward propagate toward the southeast which may help
put a slightly faster end to the very heavy rain, but should
continue to see development in advance of the upper trough axis and
north of the outflow which could persist even behind any forward
propagating segments. This heavy precip is also falling across the
parts of the area that have been driest as of late, and can handle
more water. However, the torrential rates alone will produce
substantial runoff and may be sufficient for flash flooding even in
the dry conditions.

&&

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Elevated activity has weakened and exited with good insolation in
recent hours in weak subsidence allowing for a quick increase in
winds and temps. 19Z surface observations suggest cold front from
south central Nebraska to the SW corner of Kansas with some CU
development on the north end. Recent water vapor imagery shows
main upper wave pushing through southern Wyoming with convection
in NC Colorado well behind the front.

Overall setup continues to support a rather wet next 12-18 hours
with cold front coming into northern and western areas overnight and
upper trough following, with low level jet ramping up to around
60kts. Nearby 12Z observed precipitable water values were at to just
above normal and continued advection of deeper moisture to the south
will pump these values up.

Still having some question on the early hours of the event. With
surface low pressure in far SE Colorado, convergence along the front
is not great, and the main upper trough well behind will not boost
convergence until perhaps the daytime hours of Labor Day. Various
higher resolution models are delayed with the convective initiation
until around 23-0Z and could occur well into the CWA. Dewpoint
depressions should remain in the 25-40F range for somewhat high
cloud bases, but increasing low level wind fields will support
strong low level helicity. Again, with the trough lagging, mid level
winds are somewhat low to support a long-lived supercell, and wind
and hail continue to the be the main severe weather concerns with ML
CAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg and downdraft CAPE around 1200 J/kg currently
analyzed. The high-res models are also similar with a secondary
impulse of convection moving through in the late evening to
overnight hours, perhaps via a sustained MCS from the current NC
Colorado storms. This could track over northern areas again and
bring an increased flooding concern, but with recent rains spotty at
best, am not confident enough for a Watch. Convection should overall
slowly clear from northwest to central areas overnight.

Cold front still appears to sag south into southern areas for the
afternoon hours of Labor Day. This again is not a clear-cut forecast
with convective activity possibly affecting the location of the
effective front. If at least some insolation can occur, cooling mid
levels behind the upper trough should allow for moderate instability
to again develop along and ahead of the effective front with plenty
of shear to support severe storms. This time, upper winds will be
stronger but weaker near the surface.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For Monday night and Tuesday, have continued chances for precip as
the expected outflow boundary from tonight's convection gets hung
up across southeast and south central KS. In general would anticipate
POPs diminishing and becoming increasingly confined to far
southern portions of the forecast area with time through the day
Tuesday as the upper forcing moves east of the area and the low
level jet veers to the southwest decreasing convergence along the
front.

Tuesday night may be more interesting in terms of strong to
possibly severe thunderstorms. Most model guidance is pointing to
strong theta-e advection overnight with good isentropic upglide.
Additionally model forecast soundings have fairly steep mid level
lapse rates with potentially 1000 to 1500 J/km of elevated
instability. The NAM also shows around 30 KTS of effective bulk
shear, so it is not out of the question that there could be some
elevated storms capable of producing large hail. This activity may
linger into Wednesday morning. After that the forecast is
expecting a dry period through Thursday before models bring a
frontal system into the area Thursday night through Friday night.
Because of this boundary, have continued with some chance POPs for
Thursday night through Friday. By Saturday, both the GFS and ECMWF
build a surface ridge into the central plains with dryer air
advecting in. Because of this, have trended POPs down for Saturday
and kept Sunday dry.

Temps are expected to remain warm through Thursday until the
frontal system enters the region with chances for rain. The
warmest days look to be Wednesday and Thursday as 850 temps warm
to around 25C. Therefore have highs in the mid 90s with lows
around 70 to the lower 70s. Temps should trend cooler by the
weekend due to cold air advection behind the front. May see lows
in the 50s with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the 06z TAFs, widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will
persist through the overnight hours into Monday morning. Some models
are suggesting that areas of fog may develop before sunrise,
especially near KTOP/KFOE. There is still uncertainty with regards
to whether or not this will occur as winds may stay just high enough
to diminish this threat, but went ahead and added a TEMPO group at
this time and will continue to monitor the trends through the
overnight hours. Expect this precipitation to shift south of the TAF
sites during the morning hours with winds veering to the northwest
and eventually north-northeast with the frontal passage. There is a
chance for additional scattered thunderstorm develop late afternoon
into early evening. However, the TAF sites may be near the northern
edge of this precipitation development, so have only mentioned VCTS
at this time due to the uncertainty in the exact location of these
storms. Any storms that do develop near the TAF sites should shift
southward by mid to late evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Hennecke

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
343 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-012045-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
343 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...JUST WEST OF CONCORDIA...THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING. THE
STORMS WILL THEN QUICKLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS
THROUGH 10 PM. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MORE LIKELY TO MOVE
INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.

LARGE HAIL AS BIG AS GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
OF 60 TO 80 MPH ARE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.
IF STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE...THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. AS THE STORMS SPREAD EAST...THEY AREA EXPECTED TO
EVOLVE INTO A LINE OF STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING A
GREATER HAZARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.
THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SOUTH
OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STORMS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 35 DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE STORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND LINGER
THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHILE
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS IN THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING AND MAKE REPORTS TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA.

WOLTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1031 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 SE OLSBURG            39.39N 96.55W
08/31/2014  E60 MPH          POTTAWATOMIE       KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KSANDERS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1213 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

KSZ035-010545-
DICKINSON-
1213 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DICKINSON COUNTY...

THROUGH 1245 AM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST
AT 45 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN DICKINSON COUNTY. NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE HOPE AND HERINGTON.

&&

LAT...LON 3877 9693 3861 9693 3860 9701 3860 9737
      3861 9738 3879 9738
TIME...MOT...LOC 0512Z 289DEG 57KT 3874 9724 3832 9755

GARGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1226 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

KSZ037-010600-
MORRIS-
1226 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MORRIS COUNTY...

THROUGH 100 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 30 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MORRIS COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE
AFFECTED INCLUDE BURDICK...WILSEY...DUNLAP AND COUNCIL GROVE.

&&

LAT...LON 3875 9693 3865 9635 3852 9635 3852 9693
TIME...MOT...LOC 0526Z 277DEG 24KT 3858 9689

GARGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1228 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

KSZ054-058-010600-
COFFEY-LYON-
1228 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LYON AND NORTHWESTERN
COFFEY COUNTIES...

THROUGH 100 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 35 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LYON AND NORTHWESTERN COFFEY COUNTIES.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50
MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE EMPORIA...NEOSHO
RAPIDS AND HARTFORD.

MOTORISTS ALONG THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 117 AND 131
COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED. MOTORISTS ALONG INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 128 AND 148 COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

&&

LAT...LON 3824 9636 3829 9636 3846 9628 3847 9595
      3843 9595 3843 9586 3819 9586
TIME...MOT...LOC 0528Z 271DEG 30KT 3836 9621

GARGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1256 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

KSZ037-010630-
MORRIS-
1256 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MORRIS COUNTY...

THROUGH 130 AM CDT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT 45 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MORRIS COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO
PENNY SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE COUNCIL GROVE LAKE...COUNCIL
GROVE AND DUNLAP.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

&&

LAT...LON 3873 9685 3873 9635 3858 9635 3852 9636
      3852 9689
TIME...MOT...LOC 0556Z 290DEG 38KT 3864 9669 3812 9682

GARGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
133 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 AM     TSTM WND GST     EMPORIA AIRPORT         38.34N 96.20W
09/01/2014  M59 MPH          LYON               KS   ASOS

&&

BARJENBRUCH