Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Topeka, KS

568 
WWUS53 KTOP 080126
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
826 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

KSC029-080136-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0093.000000T0000Z-140708T0200Z/
CLOUD-
826 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CLOUD COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM. 

LAT...LON 3931 9738 3931 9737 3937 9737 3936 9703
      3903 9710 3910 9741
TIME...MOT...LOC 0126Z 277DEG 23KT 3920 9734

$$

KSC027-041-143-080200-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0093.000000T0000Z-140708T0200Z/
OTTAWA-CLAY-DICKINSON-
826 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
DICKINSON...SOUTHERN CLAY AND NORTHEASTERN OTTAWA COUNTIES UNTIL 900
PM CDT...

AT 825 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LONGFORD...AND
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LONGFORD...MANCHESTER AND IDANA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3931 9738 3931 9737 3937 9737 3936 9703
      3903 9710 3910 9741
TIME...MOT...LOC 0126Z 277DEG 23KT 3920 9734

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

HENNECKE

414 
WWUS53 KTOP 080133
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
833 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

KSC041-143-080143-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0093.000000T0000Z-140708T0200Z/
OTTAWA-DICKINSON-
833 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN DICKINSON AND
NORTHEASTERN OTTAWA COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED ACROSS THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3937 9725 3936 9703 3914 9708 3913 9735
TIME...MOT...LOC 0133Z 277DEG 23KT 3919 9728

$$

KSC027-080200-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0093.000000T0000Z-140708T0200Z/
CLAY-
833 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN CLAY
COUNTY UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

AT 830 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LONGFORD...AND
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. AT 828 PM SPOTTERS REPORTED 
QUARTER SIZE HAIL 2 MILES SOUTH OF CLAY CENTER 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN CLAY COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3937 9725 3936 9703 3914 9708 3913 9735
TIME...MOT...LOC 0133Z 277DEG 23KT 3919 9728

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

HENNECKE

541 
WWUS53 KTOP 080147
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
847 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

KSC027-080200-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0093.000000T0000Z-140708T0200Z/
CLAY-
847 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL CLAY
COUNTY UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

AT 845 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF
WAKEFIELD...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN CLAY COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3914 9721 3937 9716 3936 9703 3914 9708
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 273DEG 26KT 3924 9713

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

HENNECKE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
637 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

Currently monitoring visible satellite this afternoon where multiple
boundaries are positioned across the region. A weak boundary was
tracking southeast through the CWA while a stronger area of outflow
winds was pushing southward into southern NE and far northern KS. A
weak warm front resided near the KS/NE border while the stronger
cold front was located over southern SD. Remnant cloud cover from
this morning's showers were finally exiting east central KS,
allowing temps to quickly rise into the 90s, as heat indices
approach the low 100s. Dewpoints continue to mix down into the low
and middle 60s. On the water vapor in the mid levels, two vorticity
maxima were noted over northern NE and a stronger wave dropping southeast
from North Dakota.

Late this afternoon, surface CAPE near 3000 J/KG while effective
shear increases between 30 and 50 kts is supportive of strong to severe
convection. Main limiting factor for surface based convection is the
capping inversion holding across much of the area as seen on the 19Z
KTOP RAOB. Latest 4-KM WRF, HRRR, and RUC keep convection at bay
until after 00Z but could not entirely rule out a few updrafts
developing along the leading outflow boundary or warm front in
vicinity of KS/NE border. If a storm develops, it will be capable of
large hail and damaging winds.

Highest chances for severe convection reside after 00Z as scattered
storms along the reinforcing cold front and upper trough shift south
and east across Nebraska, northeast Kansas, and northern Missouri. the
progressive nature of the system, in addition to stout forward
propagating Corfidi vectors approaching 55 to 60 kts signal damaging
winds to be the primary hazards with this evening's storms. Large
hail is also possible. Locally heavy rainfall will depend on the
speed of the line and any training convection that occurs towards
central KS along the boundary. Tornado potential is low in far
northern KS where the frontal boundary and weak low level shear
maximizes near 15 kts. Likely precip chances were focused over
northern, northeast, and east central areas based on the position of
the upper trough axis as the main line of storms quickly shifts
southeast overnight.

Guidance is on track to clear precip through by Tuesday mid morning
as skies become mostly sunny during the afternoon. A cooler and stable
airmass in the system's wake will only bring temps to the 80s for
highs. Northerly winds increase between 10 and 15 mph sustained.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

Wed/Thurs...Should have a cool night Tuesday night as skies clear
and cooler airmass with lower dewpoints slides southward into the
forecast area. Strong sunshine and deeper mixing on Wednesday
should return high temperatures back into the middle 80s east to
upper 80s west. Still some consensus that front retreats back
northeast overnight Wednesday night into Thursday and brings a
chance for storms as it does so, although coverage may be shut
down quickly as warm temps and cap return aloft by the late
afternoon Thursday. Eastern counties may be able to stay a few
degrees cooler depending on how fast clouds and precip chances
diminish.

As upper flow becomes slightly northwest into Thursday night,
passing wave still progged to generate an MCS mainly north of our
area then sliding east. Kept slight chances as some models slide
this boundary into our forecast area. Some discrepancies in the
extended as EC lays this boundary over the area through the
weekend while GFS is farther north and a warmer drier solution.
The GFS ensembles favor the warmer pattern and have left the
extended as such.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

VFR conditions are expected outside of convective activity. Line
of TSRA expected to move through the terminals in the 04Z-07Z time
period. Wind gusts to 45kts or higher are possible and have
included in a tempo group for now. VSBYS in TSRA to become mvfr to
briefly ifr with stronger storms. Expect vsbys to improve after
09Z and convective activity to be moving south of the terminals by
10Z. Winds will shift to the north and northeast behind the front.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
332 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-082045-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
332 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND MAY IMPACT PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN KANSAS BY EARLY EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WOULD BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

LATER THIS EVENING...A COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 75.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN
ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70...BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS EVENING.