Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
637 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

Currently monitoring visible satellite this afternoon where multiple
boundaries are positioned across the region. A weak boundary was
tracking southeast through the CWA while a stronger area of outflow
winds was pushing southward into southern NE and far northern KS. A
weak warm front resided near the KS/NE border while the stronger
cold front was located over southern SD. Remnant cloud cover from
this morning's showers were finally exiting east central KS,
allowing temps to quickly rise into the 90s, as heat indices
approach the low 100s. Dewpoints continue to mix down into the low
and middle 60s. On the water vapor in the mid levels, two vorticity
maxima were noted over northern NE and a stronger wave dropping southeast
from North Dakota.

Late this afternoon, surface CAPE near 3000 J/KG while effective
shear increases between 30 and 50 kts is supportive of strong to severe
convection. Main limiting factor for surface based convection is the
capping inversion holding across much of the area as seen on the 19Z
KTOP RAOB. Latest 4-KM WRF, HRRR, and RUC keep convection at bay
until after 00Z but could not entirely rule out a few updrafts
developing along the leading outflow boundary or warm front in
vicinity of KS/NE border. If a storm develops, it will be capable of
large hail and damaging winds.

Highest chances for severe convection reside after 00Z as scattered
storms along the reinforcing cold front and upper trough shift south
and east across Nebraska, northeast Kansas, and northern Missouri. the
progressive nature of the system, in addition to stout forward
propagating Corfidi vectors approaching 55 to 60 kts signal damaging
winds to be the primary hazards with this evening's storms. Large
hail is also possible. Locally heavy rainfall will depend on the
speed of the line and any training convection that occurs towards
central KS along the boundary. Tornado potential is low in far
northern KS where the frontal boundary and weak low level shear
maximizes near 15 kts. Likely precip chances were focused over
northern, northeast, and east central areas based on the position of
the upper trough axis as the main line of storms quickly shifts
southeast overnight.

Guidance is on track to clear precip through by Tuesday mid morning
as skies become mostly sunny during the afternoon. A cooler and stable
airmass in the system's wake will only bring temps to the 80s for
highs. Northerly winds increase between 10 and 15 mph sustained.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

Wed/Thurs...Should have a cool night Tuesday night as skies clear
and cooler airmass with lower dewpoints slides southward into the
forecast area. Strong sunshine and deeper mixing on Wednesday
should return high temperatures back into the middle 80s east to
upper 80s west. Still some consensus that front retreats back
northeast overnight Wednesday night into Thursday and brings a
chance for storms as it does so, although coverage may be shut
down quickly as warm temps and cap return aloft by the late
afternoon Thursday. Eastern counties may be able to stay a few
degrees cooler depending on how fast clouds and precip chances
diminish.

As upper flow becomes slightly northwest into Thursday night,
passing wave still progged to generate an MCS mainly north of our
area then sliding east. Kept slight chances as some models slide
this boundary into our forecast area. Some discrepancies in the
extended as EC lays this boundary over the area through the
weekend while GFS is farther north and a warmer drier solution.
The GFS ensembles favor the warmer pattern and have left the
extended as such.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

VFR conditions are expected outside of convective activity. Line
of TSRA expected to move through the terminals in the 04Z-07Z time
period. Wind gusts to 45kts or higher are possible and have
included in a tempo group for now. VSBYS in TSRA to become mvfr to
briefly ifr with stronger storms. Expect vsbys to improve after
09Z and convective activity to be moving south of the terminals by
10Z. Winds will shift to the north and northeast behind the front.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
332 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-082045-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
332 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND MAY IMPACT PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN KANSAS BY EARLY EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WOULD BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

LATER THIS EVENING...A COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 75.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN
ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70...BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
946 PM CDT MON JUL 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0943 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NNE BREMEN            39.95N 96.75W
07/07/2014  M42 MPH          MARSHALL           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED WIND GUST OF 42MPH WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
            THUNDER/LIGHTNING

&&

BDRAKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1002 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

KSZ026-039-040-055-080330-
DOUGLAS-JEFFERSON-OSAGE-SHAWNEE-
1002 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN SHAWNEE...NORTHEASTERN
OSAGE...SOUTHERN JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES...

THROUGH 1030 PM CDT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT
35 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SHAWNEE...NORTHEASTERN OSAGE...
SOUTHERN JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE LECOMPTON...EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL TOPEKA...
BERRYTON...WILLIAMSTOWN...LAWRENCE AIRPORT...RICHLAND...LAWRENCE...
CLINTON LAKE...CLINTON...OVERBROOK...LONE STAR AND EUDORA.

MOTORISTS ALONG THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 169 AND 205
COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM.

&&

LAT...LON 3893 9511 3877 9558 3898 9593 3913 9555
      3935 9517 3897 9518 3898 9516 3897 9513
      3898 9511 3896 9509 3898 9509 3899 9507
      3898 9505 3896 9505
TIME...MOT...LOC 0302Z 299DEG 29KT 3926 9515 3907 9545
          3894 9581

HENNECKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1004 PM CDT MON JUL 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0951 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 SSW BAILEYVILLE       39.79N 96.21W
07/07/2014  E65 MPH          NEMAHA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1007 PM CDT MON JUL 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0948 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 WNW CLYDE             39.61N 97.44W
07/07/2014  E45 MPH          CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED WIND 40-45MPH

&&

BDRAKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1008 PM CDT MON JUL 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0948 PM     HAIL             WNW CLYDE               39.59N 97.40W
07/07/2014  E0.88 INCH       CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BDRAKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1012 PM CDT MON JUL 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1001 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 E OLSBURG             39.43N 96.52W
07/07/2014  E70 MPH          POTTAWATOMIE       KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            70 MPH WINDS AND MANY SMALL TREE BRANCHES LITTERING THE
            ROAD NEAR THE JUNCTION OF KANSAS HIGHWAYS 16 AND 13.

&&

JW