Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Great Falls, MT

177 
WWUS55 KTFX 151922
SVSTFX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
122 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2014

MTC049-151945-
/O.CON.KTFX.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-140815T1945Z/
LEWIS AND CLARK MT-
122 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL LEWIS
AND CLARK COUNTY UNTIL 145 PM MDT...

AT 118 PM MDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES WEST OF WOLF CREEK TO 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WOLF CREEK...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WOLF CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4724 11212 4695 11193 4662 11231 4699 11246
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 218DEG 17KT 4705 11222 4687 11215

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

313 
WWUS55 KTFX 151938
SVSTFX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
138 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2014

MTC049-151948-
/O.EXP.KTFX.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-140815T1945Z/
LEWIS AND CLARK MT-
138 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL LEWIS AND CLARK COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 145 PM MDT...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY.  HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 4724 11212 4695 11193 4662 11231 4699 11246
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 218DEG 17KT 4711 11215 4693 11208

$$

WARANAUSKAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1207 AM MDT Fri Aug 15 2014

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

.UPDATE...

Two bands of light showers over north central MT are weakening.
Have raised POPs slightly through 18Z to account for one of these
bands over the Hill/Blaine county line. Drier air seen on WV is
circulating into southwest MT and will keep most areas dry until
late afternoon. Short term models suggest a subtle lobe of
vorticity presently over NE Oregon will rotate through north
central MT late this afternoon and early evening. Additionally,
models indicate convergence along a weak surface boundary crossing
the Continental divide around 00Z this evening. Expect a line of
thunderstorms to form along this boundary and advance across north
central Montana from around 00-06Z. Forecast soundings at CTB
provide around 1200 J/kg CAPE prior to thunderstorm development, so
heavy rain is possible with PW around 1.1 inches. Weak shear and a
tall- skinny CAPE profile do not support any more than a minimal
hail threat. Confidence in training or slow moving thunderstorms is
not high enough to warrant a Flash Flood watch with FF guidance of
1.2 to 2 inches over the forecast area. However, rainfall rates will
have to be monitored carefully this evening as precipitation
develops and ponding or street flooding possible. Inhere ted
forecast package already represents categorical POPS for our NW
zones this evening, so have not made any changes. PAN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1755Z.
Upper-level low pressure system that was stationary over Washington/
Oregon now beginning to come east toward western Montana.
Increasing moisture and instability ahead of the low is already
generating scattered thunderstorms just west of the Continental
Divide, with storm coverage expected to expand into central Montana
this aftn.  Given the current analysis, have moved up the VCTS/TSRA
start times for KHLN/KCTB as conditions are destabilizing sooner
than earlier forecast.  Confidence for scattered storms west of KGTF
is high, but more marginal for storm coverage from KGTF eastward due
to several alternating bands of dry air and moisture.  However, will
keep mention of TSRA for remaining local terminals as several
forecast parameters have been trending toward more TSRA development
than past few days.  Storm activity should gradually dissipate from
west-to-east tonight.  Expect VFR conditions away from storms, but
MVFR and short-lived local IFR conditions possible close to any
stronger convective cells.
Waranauskas

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 AM MDT Fri Aug 15 2014/
Today through Sunday...With the main upper level low pressure
continuing to spin over the Pacific Northwest...scattered showers
and thunderstorms will continue to move through the region over
the next few days. The heaviest rain this morning will affect
areas between Choteau and Cut Bank. Up to a 0.50 is possible from
the heaviest showers. With more upper level energy moving through
North Central MT late this afternoon/evening...another round of
showers and thunderstorms will move through the area. The best
area for storms later today is mainly north of a Boulder to White
Sulphur Springs line. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over
the region on Saturday...as the upper level low slowly starts to
pull to our East. By Sunday...the upper level should be far enough
east that any showers/thunderstorms should be confined mainly to
areas northeast of Great Falls early in the day...but the storms
will spread back westward towards the Rockies by late in the day
as the airmass becomes unstable. Generally temperatures will be
seasonable over the next few days...with afternoon highs generally
in the lower to mid 80s across the region. Brusda

Sunday night through Friday...Models take an upper trough over
central Montana Sunday evening to eastern Montana Monday and into
the Dakotas Monday night. Still expect isolated to scattered showers
to affect the plains and adjoining mountains Sunday evening before
ending around midnight. Monday should be a mostly dry day as a weak
upper ridge develops over Idaho and western Montana. Then as has
been advertised an upper trough will be developing over the
northwest U.S. Models differ on the details of this development and
on weather disturbances embedded within the trough that will be
affecting the forecast area. In particular by Friday the GFS has an
upper trough over the Pacific Northwest. A disturbance ahead of the
upper trough develops into a closed low as it moves north through
western Montana Friday night. Associated with this the GFS has
precipitation amounts of a half-inch or more over the western
mountains. The ECMWF on the other hand has a more broad upper
trough. Due to model differences have gone with a general trend of
increasing the chances of precipitation from Tuesday into Thursday.
High temperatures from the upper 80s to low 90s Tuesday are expected
to cool to the low 60s to low 70s Friday. Blank

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  84  58  82  58 /  50  60  20  20
CTB  79  54  78  54 /  70  80  20  20
HLN  85  55  84  55 /  40  40  20  10
BZN  85  51  84  51 /  30  30  10  10
WEY  74  43  75  42 /  20  20  10  10
DLN  80  50  82  50 /  20  20  10  10
HVR  86  60  85  60 /  50  60  30  30
LWT  82  57  81  57 /  40  60  30  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1225 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2014

MTZ014-052-053-151915-
BROADWATER MT-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK MT-JEFFERSON MT-
1225 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LEWIS AND CLARK...
NORTHERN JEFFERSON AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN BROADWATER COUNTIES UNTIL
115 PM MDT...

AT 1218 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES WEST OF HELENA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   HELENA...
   EAST HELENA AND  MONTANA CITY...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4690 11172 4659 11166 4646 11219 4665 11231
TIME...MOT...LOC 1825Z 246DEG 26KT 4658 11211

WARANAUSKAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1240 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1238 PM     HAIL             8 WSW HELENA            46.55N 112.17W
08/15/2014  E1.75 INCH       LEWIS AND CLARK    MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN WITH STORM.

&&

JNS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1242 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2014

MTZ014-151930-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK MT-
1242 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LEWIS AND CLARK COUNTY
UNTIL 130 PM MDT...

AT 1236 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
TWO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ONE 19 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LINCOLN AND THE
OTHER 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARYSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK COUNTY...
  RURAL CENTRAL LEWIS AND CLARK COUNTY...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT FRIDAY
EVENING FOR WESTERN MONTANA.

LAT...LON 4710 11245 4693 11193 4668 11227 4684 11252
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 206DEG 14KT 4681 11235

WARANAUSKAS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1247 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2014

MTZ008-015-151930-
BEAVERHEAD MT-MADISON MT-
1247 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MADISON AND NORTHERN
BEAVERHEAD COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM MDT...

AT 1245 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DIVIDE...OR 24 MILES
NORTHWEST OF SHERIDAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL NORTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT FRIDAY
EVENING FOR WESTERN MONTANA.

LAT...LON 4575 11276 4569 11272 4567 11269 4564 11268
      4570 11255 4575 11253 4577 11250 4575 11247
      4575 11236 4546 11274 4557 11294
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 237DEG 30KT 4563 11261

SUK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1251 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1244 PM     HAIL             8 W HELENA              46.60N 112.19W
08/15/2014  E1.25 INCH       LEWIS AND CLARK    MT   PUBLIC

            HEAVY RAIN WITH STORM.

&&

JNS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1254 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2014

MTZ052-151945-
JEFFERSON MT-
1254 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY UNTIL
145 PM MDT...

AT 1252 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BUTTE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   BASIN...
   BOULDER...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT FRIDAY
EVENING FOR WESTERN MONTANA.

LAT...LON 4640 11227 4621 11193 4589 11241 4591 11243
      4597 11245 4602 11245 4605 11249 4609 11248
      4613 11253 4614 11253
TIME...MOT...LOC 1854Z 225DEG 24KT 4601 11249

SUK