Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
346 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION WHILE LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS SETS UP TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA CONTINUING THE
SYNOPTIC EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT FURTHER SOUTH WE WILL STILL
SEE PLENTY FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTO THIS
EVENING THEN WIND DOWN OVER LAND. ON SATURDAY THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING
THE BAY/SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP LEADING TO THE INITIAL CONVECTION
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MORE DEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
STEERING FLOW WILL BE TOWARD THE THE WEST NORTHWEST ALBEIT KIND OF
WEAK SO THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE AROUND THE
INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR WHERE THE HIGHEST LIKELY POPS WILL BE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE 70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST...AND DAYTIME HIGHS
ON SATURDAY CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SE STATES THROUGH
TUESDAY. THEN AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE FL STRAITS AND CUBA
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA KEEPING AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW IN PLACE WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
FORMING ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. A POCKET OF DRY
AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES
THE REGION LOWERING POPS TO 30 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WITH THE MOISTURE
RETURNING BRINGING POPS BACK UP TO 40 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS AND IN THE 70S...EXCEPT
NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT COULD SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AS DAYTIME HEATING GETS
UNDERWAY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
PRODUCING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3
FEET OR LESS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
WILL SET UP ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON SHIFTING WINDS TO
ONSHORE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER
SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF THESE STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
SEE RAIN DURING THE PREVIOUS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  92  78  93 /  40  60  30  50
FMY  76  94  76  93 /  40  50  20  50
GIF  75  94  75  93 /  40  50  20  50
SRQ  76  93  76  93 /  40  60  30  50
BKV  73  93  73  93 /  40  60  30  50
SPG  81  92  80  92 /  40  60  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
MID TERM/LONG TERM...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
503 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-292000-
SUMTER-PINELLAS-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DESOTO-COASTAL LEVY-
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL PASCO-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-
INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
INLAND SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
503 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CAUSING MINOR
FLOODING...AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

HUBBARD

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
419 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FLZ052-292045-
POLK-
419 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN POLK COUNTY...

AT 419 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF LOUGHMAN TO LAKE HAMILTON TO HIGHLAND PARK...OR ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MGM STUDIOS TO HAINES CITY
TO LAKE WALES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH...THAT WILL AFFECT HAINES
CITY...CYPRESS GARDENS...LAKE WALES AND LAKE WALES MUNICIPAL
AIRPORT...THROUGH 445 PM EDT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 4 BETWEEN EXITS 55 AND 58.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW
SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. WHEN DRIVING THROUGH HEAVY
RAIN...SLOW DOWN. ALWAYS LEAVE A SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN YOU AND OTHER
VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 2771 8166 2833 8174 2836 8171 2834 8165
      2827 8164 2826 8155 2821 8152 2815 8152
      2815 8146 2810 8144 2808 8134 2801 8139
      2795 8133 2786 8128
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 220DEG 10KT 2832 8164 2807 8155
          2790 8151

RAG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
425 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FLZ165-265-292115-
INLAND LEE-COASTAL LEE-
425 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LEE COUNTY...

AT 425 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
AIRPORT...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF BONITA SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHWEST
AT 20 MPH...THAT WILL AFFECT ESTERO...SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
AIRPORT...GATEWAY AND FORT MYERS VILLAS...THROUGH 515 PM EDT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN EXITS 116 AND 143.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW
SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. WHEN DRIVING THROUGH HEAVY
RAIN...SLOW DOWN. ALWAYS LEAVE A SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN YOU AND OTHER
VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 2632 8185 2640 8189 2647 8198 2647 8202
      2645 8201 2641 8208 2649 8220 2659 8223
      2660 8220 2651 8217 2648 8212 2660 8214
      2662 8217 2677 8187 2676 8156 2642 8156
      2641 8165 2631 8166
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 133DEG 16KT 2645 8168

RAG