Severe Thunderstorm Warning 274, NWS Tallahassee, FL

732 
WWUS52 KTAE 141426
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1026 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

FLC037-045-077-129-141445-
/O.CON.KTAE.SV.W.0274.000000T0000Z-141014T1445Z/
GULF FL-FRANKLIN FL-WAKULLA FL-LIBERTY FL-
1026 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 AM
EDT/945 AM CDT/ FOR SOUTHERN LIBERTY...WESTERN WAKULLA...CENTRAL
FRANKLIN AND EAST CENTRAL GULF COUNTIES...

AT 1023 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OWENS
BRIDGE...OR 17 MILES NORTH OF EASTPOINT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO KERN...
MORGAN PLACE...WILMA...TWIN POLE...CENTRAL CITY...NIXON GARDEN...
JENSEN PLACE...VILAS...EAST CAMP...POPLAR CAMP...SANBORN...JEWEL FIRE
TOWER...LIBERTY...SOPCHOPPY...SMITH CREEK AND CLIO

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

&&

LAT...LON 2973 8492 2978 8489 2973 8497 2981 8511
      3037 8490 3015 8439 2975 8483 2973 8488
      2971 8488
TIME...MOT...LOC 1426Z 219DEG 42KT 3003 8487

$$

11-MOORE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
239 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2014

...ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A squall line moving into our westernmost zones at 06Z will
continue to sweep from west to east across the region today
bringing with it a threat for severe storms and heavy rainfall. A
tornado watch is in effect for all of our western zones including
portions of SW GA and the western Big Bend until 7 am EDT. This
watch will likely be extended eastward as the day progresses. By 9
am, the leading edge of the squall line should be near an Albany
to Tallahassee to Apalachicola line and east of our FA by early to
mid afternoon. The severe threat will end in the wake of the
squall line but rain chances won't end until the passage of the
cold front.

The main severe weather threat continues to be damaging straight
line winds, with a few isolated tornadoes possible. The flash flood
threat will come from the potential for training convection from
south to north out ahead of the main squall line over areas that
have already seen several inches of rain.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
The cold front should be near TLH by 00Z Wednesday and completely
east of the area by 06-08Z. Even at this short time range, there are
timing differences of a few hours among the models. Evening PoPs
will range from categorical over the southeast FL Big Bend counties
to chance over the rest of the Big Bend and Southwest GA. A much
drier and cooler air mass will settle in behind the front to bring
some classic October weather to the region for Wednesday and
Thursday. Afternoon highs will actually be a couple of degrees below
normal, around 80 in FL with upper 70s to the north. Overnight lows
Wednesday night will drop several degrees below normal ranging from
the mid 50s at the coast to the upper 40s across the normally cooler
areas west of an ABY to TLH line.

.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
Dry weather is expected through the period with high pressure in
the wake of the strong cold front on Tuesday. Temperatures will
be within a few degrees of average for this time of year.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Wednesday] Numerous showers and thunderstorms will
cross the area today ending from west to east from midday through
the early evening. MVFR conditions will be most common in
thunderstorms, but brief periods of IFR will also occur in the
heavier showers. Winds will also be quite gusty in storms. Strong
southerly winds will shift to the WNW behind a cold front during
the latter part of the period, with VFR conditions then
prevailing.

&&

.Marine...
Small craft advisory conditions will continue today, but end with
the passage of a cold front. Moderate west to northwest winds will
then persist below headline criteria through Thursday with lighter
winds arriving for Friday and Saturday as high pressure builds over
the waters.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will end from west to east
later today and this evening as a strong cold front pushes through.
A cooler and much drier airmass will settle into the area for the
remainder of the week but Red Flag conditions are not expected.

&&

.Hydrology...
Radar estimates and rain gages indicates that 1-2 inch rainfall
totals have been common from the western FL Big Bend west across the
FL Panhandle and north into Southeast AL. However, there have been a
few bands of higher amounts in the 5-7 inch range. These areas are
primed and any additional rainfall (which is expected) could very
well result in flash flooding. The most vulnerable counties are
southeast Walton, Washington, eastern Homes, western Jackson, Gulf,
western Franklin and southern Liberty. An additional 1-2 inches of
rainfall will be common across the area with locally higher amounts
up to 5 inches or so. The flash flood watch will remain in place.
While some of the flashier streams and creeks could see some sharp
rises, flooding of main stem rivers is not anticipated.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   83  55  80  50  80 /  90  40  10   0   0
Panama City   80  58  79  56  79 /  90  10   0   0   0
Dothan        80  52  77  49  78 /  80  10   0   0   0
Albany        80  54  78  50  79 /  90  30  10   0   0
Valdosta      82  58  79  50  79 /  90  70  10   0   0
Cross City    84  64  81  51  80 /  80  80  10   0   0
Apalachicola  82  58  78  55  79 / 100  20   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for Calhoun-Central
     Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Gadsden-
     Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Walton-
     Jackson-Liberty-South Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for Clay-Decatur-Early-
     Miller-Seminole.

AL...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
     FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...WOOL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
633 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 AM     TSTM WND DMG     PANAMA CITY BEACH       30.21N 85.85W
10/14/2014                   BAY                FL   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT. A SIGN AND TREE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN.

&&

08-LAMERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
704 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 AM     TSTM WND DMG     SANTA ROSA BEACH        30.39N 86.23W
10/14/2014                   WALTON             FL   911 CALL CENTER

            COUPLE OF TREES DOWN AROUND SANTA ROSA BEACH

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
739 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ENTERPRISE              31.31N 85.85W
10/14/2014                   COFFEE             AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN IN ENTERPRISE

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
801 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW GRACEVILLE        30.95N 85.54W
10/14/2014                   HOLMES             FL   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON JS JONES RD.

&&

WESTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
802 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE WAUSAU            30.63N 85.58W
10/14/2014                   WASHINGTON         FL   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN AT OLIE AND AMBUS ROADS.

&&

WESTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
804 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSW RIVERSIDE         30.47N 85.67W
10/14/2014                   WASHINGTON         FL   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN AT PINE RIDGE AND ROLLING PINES ROADS.

&&

WESTON