Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Tallahassee, FL

725 
WWUS52 KTAE 032137
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
537 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

FLC065-079-123-032200-
/O.CON.KTAE.SV.W.0185.000000T0000Z-140703T2200Z/
MADISON FL-JEFFERSON FL-TAYLOR FL-
537 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL TAYLOR...EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON AND SOUTHWESTERN
MADISON COUNTIES...

AT 534 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
SIRMANS...OR 17 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MONTICELLO...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO EBB

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

&&

LAT...LON 3042 8378 3044 8366 3026 8364 3028 8377
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 266DEG 12KT 3035 8368

$$

17-GOULD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
243 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
18Z local radar imagery shows convection starting to kick off in NE
FL and SE GA and is expected to reach our CWA later this afternoon.
With a surface front bisecting our forecast area roughly from ECP to
FZG and Hurricane Arthur off to our northeast, convection this
afternoon and evening should be confined in the south-central GA
and FL Big Bend region. Highs today will be in the upper 90s with
heat indices in the 100-104 range. Lows tonight will be slightly
cooler than what we've been seeing lately, cooling to the upper
60s to around 70.

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
The same long wave trough that is pulling Arthur up the U.S. eastern
seaboard helped push a cold front well into the Deep south today.
The low level dry air push will also be somewhat aided by large
scale circulation around the hurricane. This is one of the few
scenarios where we actually can get a frontal passage in mid
summer. The front will push all the way to the Southeast FL Big
Bend by 12Z Friday with noticeably drier air moving in behind it.
As with most summer frontal passages, daytime temperatures will
remain hot, but not as hot as we have seen most of this week. Most
areas will reach the lower to mid 90s. However, dew points will
drop into the mid 50s north to lower 60s across most of our FL
zones. The Southeast Big Bend counties will see mid to upper 60s
dew points. Afternoon heat indices will therefore be at or below
actual temps for areas north of a VLD-TLH-ECP line. Convection
will be largely suppressed with low to slight chance PoPs limited
to Dixie County and adjacent areas.

We will have perfect weather for viewing fire works over most of the
region with show time temps generally around 80 and virtually NIL
rain chances. Overnight lows will drop into the 60s. On Saturday,
the front will be pretty much washed out, but a remnant surface
trough will drift back over the area with low level moisture
increasing over our eastern zones. Isolated to scattered convection
will be possible across South Central GA and the Big Bend from TLH
eastward. A few of these may linger into the evening hours.

.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
Weak surface low pressure over AL will pull additional moisture in
from the east and we will see another east to west PoP gradient.
PoPs will range from around 50 over the eastern FL Big Bend to
around 20 across the northwestern third of the forecast area. A
gradual return to typical July weather will occur during the work
week with the subtropical ridge axis south of the area at first and
then drifting slowly north. Scattered convection will develop each
afternoon. Min temps will be near climo with max temps a couple of
degrees above normal.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible around TLH and
VLD this afternoon. As a cold front crosses the region, winds will
become NW and periodically gust to 15-20 knots this afternoon,
particularly at DHN and ABY. Winds will also gust at TLH and VLD
with scattered thunderstorms.

&&

.Marine...
With a weak pattern over the waters typical of summer, winds will be
light through the period, generally 10 knots or less. Seas will be
low as well outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Drier air will move in tomorrow behind a frontal passage and remain
in place through the weekend. Friday, relative humidity values in SE
AL will drop below 30 percent and coincide with 20 ft winds around
10 MPH and KBDI values around 600. A fire weather watch is in effect
for our SE AL counties. Elsewhere, red flag criteria will not be met.

&&

.Hydrology...
With river levels running at or below base flows and no widespread
heavy rain expected, flooding concerns are at a minimum.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   71  95  66  96  69 /  40   0  10  20  10
Panama City   76  93  72  93  73 /  10   0   0  10  10
Dothan        70  93  66  95  69 /  10   0   0  10  10
Albany        69  94  66  95  71 /  10   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      70  95  66  97  70 /  40  10  10  30  20
Cross City    75  93  69  94  71 /  40  30  10  30  20
Apalachicola  76  91  71  92  71 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...WOOL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
132 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0134 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CRAWFORDVILLE           30.18N 84.37W
07/03/2014                   WAKULLA            FL   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN AT BLOXHAM CUTOFF ROAD AND SAM SMITH CIRCLE.
            TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

WESTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
134 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0134 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CRAWFORDVILLE           30.18N 84.37W
07/03/2014                   WAKULLA            FL   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE ACROSS ROAD AT SHADEVILLE ROAD AND SPRING CREEK
            HIGHWAY. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

WESTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
135 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0211 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MONTICELLO              30.54N 83.87W
07/03/2014                   JEFFERSON          FL   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON AUCILLA HIGHWAY. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

WESTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
421 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0414 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SW VALDOSTA             30.85N 83.28W
07/03/2014                   LOWNDES            GA   911 CALL CENTER

            THREE REPORTS ALL CLOSE TO VLD AIRPORT AT 348 PM EDT. 1.
            POWERLINE DOWN 2700 MADISON HIGHWAY. 2.TREES DOWN ON
            HOUSE ON COPELAND MILLS STREET. 3.TREE DOWN ON HOUSE ON
            RACETRACK ROAD.

&&

BLOCK