Severe Thunderstorm Warning 184, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
912 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

After another hot day across the area, we will continue to be warm
and humid tonight. Most convection around the CWA should dissipate by
04z except for extreme NW portions or the forecast region near and
NW of Dothan. Raised PoPs for this area as some of our CAM models do
show convection reaching these areas just after 02z from an outflow
boundary originating near central AL/MS. Still uncertain if convection
will make it to areas near Tallahassee, but added 20 PoPs until 06z
to areas west of TLH to account for this scenario. Subsequent
updates will be made to PoPs if necessary. Temperatures will be
warmer than average and most of the CWA should stay near the mid
70s, with upper 70s to low 80s along the coast.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Friday]...

Expect VFR conditions through the evening at most terminals. Some
haze from nearby wildfires and controlled burns may briefly
bring ECP,DHN, and TLH down to VFR VIS. Keeping a close eye on some
thunderstorms that have developed to the NW of our CWA. We will be
monitoring these storms closely as there is some potential they
will impact our western terminals overnight.

&&

.Prev Discussion [329 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
Another very hot day is in store for Thursday, but drier air will
be pushing into the region from the north during the afternoon and
evening hours. Therefore will not issue a heat advisory although
will see some indices close to 105. Tropical Storm Arthur will
continue to move northeast through the period to a position off of
the Carolina coasts Thursday and skirting the Outer Banks Thursday
night. This will keep our region in low-level northwest flow
resulting in offshore winds suppressing the seabreeze, allowing
temperatures to approach triple digits again. A weak surface
trough trailing from Arthur will lie across the area with rain
chances south of I-10 in the 15-20% range.

The other issue of note is the very dry air that will be advected
into the southeast U.S. as Arthur skirts the east coast and strong
high pressure moves into the Great Lakes and Midwest regions.
This drier air will begin to move into our AL and GA counties late
Thursday afternoon with a secondary drier push on Friday across
the entire area. The result will be much lower dewpoints, even in
the mid and upper 50s, and cooler overnight lows in the mid to
upper 60s Saturday morning. This will also limit convection on
Friday to just low chances along the coast.

.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
High pressure will build through the period increasing heights in
the southeast U.S. and bringing onshore, moist flow across the
region beginning Monday. The weekend will be drier than normal
with isolated to scattered convection generally south of I-10. As
moisture increases with the return flow, PoPs will gradually ramp
up to a typical 40-50% early in the week. Temperatures will be
close to seasonal normals with overnight lows in the lower 70s and
daytime highs in the mid 90s.

.Marine...
Light west to southwesterly winds will prevail over the coastal
waters through the end of the week. Wind speeds should remain below
headline criteria with seas generally below 3 feet.

.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are unlikely for the next several days,
although some lower RH values are possible Friday afternoon as
some drier air moves in from the north.

.Hydrology...
High pressure in place will keep local weather hot and dry today and
tomorrow, with scattered sea breeze storms pinned along the coast.
More widespread rain chances will return over the weekend, but
rainfall totals are expected to remain low. With low rainfall totals
forecast and area rivers at normal to low levels, no flooding is
forecast over the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   74 100  70  97  66 /  30  10  10  10  10
Panama City   79  98  77  93  74 /  30  10  10  10  10
Dothan        74 100  69  95  69 /  30  10  10   0  10
Albany        74 100  68  95  68 /  20  10  10   0  10
Valdosta      73 100  69  95  65 /  30  10  10  10  10
Cross City    74  97  74  95  69 /  30  20  10  20  10
Apalachicola  77  97  75  92  72 /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN/DOBBS
SHORT TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
LONGTERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
AVIATION...GOULD/WALSH
MARINE...HOLLINGSWORTH
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WOOL