Alert archive / Florida / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2014

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Tallahassee, FL

January 11, 2014Lafayette County, Madison County, Taylor County, Florida

NWS Tallahassee, FL issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jan 11, 2014, 2:43 PM EST for Lafayette County, Madison County, Taylor County, Florida. It was in force for 47 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jan 11, 2014, 2:43 PM EST (19:43 UTC)
Expired: Jan 11, 2014, 3:30 PM EST
In force: 47 min
Issued by: NWS Tallahassee, FL
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Lafayette County, FL, Madison County, FL, Taylor County, FL

The radar

The Tallahassee radar (KTLH), 93 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jan 11, 2:45 PM EST	TSTM WND DMG	2 Ene Madison, FL	TREE DOWN ON YELLOW PINE AVE
Jan 11, 3:20 PM EST	TSTM WND DMG	6 Wnw Mayo, FL	TREE DOWN ON COUNTY ROAD 534

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 2 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 2 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jan 11, 11:04 AM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Tallahassee Rgnl, FL (KTLH), launched 12:00Z, 7.7 hours before the alert went out and 91 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 15 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -123 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 578 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 195 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 206 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

027 
WUUS52 KTAE 111943
SVRTAE
FLC067-079-123-112030-
/O.NEW.KTAE.SV.W.0014.140111T1943Z-140111T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
243 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
  MADISON COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MADISON...
  TAYLOR COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PERRY...

* UNTIL 330 PM EST

* AT 236 PM EST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE 
  THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF   
  60 TO 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 17 MILES WEST OF MADISON...OR 
  NEAR SIRMANS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  GREENVILLE...TOWNSEND...SAN PEDRO JUNCTION...BUCKVILLE...
  HOPEWELL...DAY...HAMBURG...MAYO JUNCTION...CHANCEY...CHERRY LAKE...
  LEE...HANSON AND PINETTA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

&&

LAT...LON 2983 8314 2983 8332 2968 8340 2974 8352
      2984 8363 2988 8365 2993 8373 3011 8392
      3050 8366 3063 8357 3061 8326 3039 8320
      3027 8324 3018 8324 3017 8323
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 239DEG 47KT 3041 8362

$$

17-GOULD

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tallahassee, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jan 11, 9:14 AM EST, 5 hours 29 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 11, 9:14 AM EST, 5 hours 29 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
914 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2014

...Slight Risk of Severe Storms Continues...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
The 12z KTAE sounding reveals a stable layer from the surface up to
around 1300 ft. Although we have seen some impressive velocities at
low levels this morning on the area radars, winds are not completely
mixing down, likely due to this shallow stable layer. Peak gust
we have seen measured so far has been 33 knots at Apalachicola.
Nevertheless, as pre-frontal convection to the west organizes and
moves towards the area later today, there remains a slight risk of
severe storms if the stable layer seen in the TAE sounding can
erode. There also may be less of a stable layer across the western
half of the area, and several reports of straight line wind damage
have been received up in central Alabama. In fact, we have
recently seen velocities greater than 55 knots dip below a
thousand feet on EVX radar with convection moving ashore near the
Walton/Bay county line. Low level shear is very strong with 0-1 km
shear recently up to 50 knots on the EVX VAD wind profile.
Hodographs are rather straight though, so we think the main threat
would be damaging winds with the tornado threat remaining low
locally.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12z Sunday] Rain and thunderstorms will move from west to
east across the area today. Conditions should return to VFR at
DHN/ECP around 20z and finally VLD around 23z with west to northwest
winds up to 15 knots.

&&

.Prev Discussions [355 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
The upper level pattern will remain progressive across the region
with one trough exiting east of the area tonight and another
reaching the Lower Mississippi Valley by Tuesday evening. The cold
front should exit southeast of the Lower Suwannee by 02-03z. We have
included slight to low chance PoPs roughly along and east of the
Aucilla and Withlacoochee Rivers. High pressure will then build east
along the Gulf Coast on Sunday clearing skies. Temperatures will be
cooler behind the front, but remain a few degrees above normal with
morning lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s and afternoon highs
generally in the mid 60s. The high will move off the Southeast U.S.
coast on Monday with return flow returning increasing moisture off
the Gulf of Mexico. High temps will reach the upper 60s in most
areas with lower 70s in the eastern FL Big Bend. As the next frontal
system approaches, rain chances will return to the forecast with
likely PoPs far west and chance PoPs elsewhere. With so little time
between fronts, we do expect sufficient instability to become
established to mention thunder anywhere except over the marine area
on Monday at this time.

.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
Very little change from our previous fcst over the extended period,
as the mean trough will remain entrenched over the eastern half of
the U.S. throughout the period. This will allow a series of
shortwaves to dig southeastward into our region and reinforce the
main trough, which should result in a lengthy period of below
climo (but not extreme) temps beginning on Tuesday. While the
first in this series of shortwaves will be very active with
numerous showers and thunderstorms ending by Tuesday morning, the
remaining ones are expected to be dry, and only serve to reinforce
the cool to potentially cold temperatures, especially as indicated
by the ECMWF.

.Marine...
Sea fog is expected to continue over the cooler shelf waters east
of Apalachicola through the morning and possibly into the
afternoon. Southerly winds will increase today ahead of an
approaching cold front. At this time, we expect winds and seas to
peak mainly at cautionary levels, although a brief period of
marginal advisory conditions cannot be ruled out. Winds will shift
to the west behind the front which will enter the western waters
this morning an exit east of the area this evening. Winds will
then become northwest overnight possibly reaching cautionary
levels once again. High pressure will build east Sunday through
Monday with winds becoming light and veering to onshore by Sunday
night. The next front will cross the waters Monday night into
Tuesday morning. Winds will once again reach cautionary to
marginal advisory criteria ahead of and behind this boundary. A
third front will sweep quickly across the waters Tuesday night.
Seas and offshore winds behind this front are likely to reach
advisory levels.

.Fire Weather...
After a wet day today, much drier conditions are expected on Sunday
in the wake of a cold front but red flag conditions are not expected.
Rain returns to the region on Monday.

.Hydrology...
Rainfall totals with today's frontal system will generally range
from about an inch and a half in Walton County to 3/4 of an inch in
Dixie with most areas in between around an inch. Another system on
Monday and Monday night is expected to produce roughly a half to 3/4
of an inch. While these events should cause minor rises on some area
rivers, flooding is not expected at this time.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   76  42  65  40  69 /  90  10   0   0  40
Panama City   75  46  64  48  67 / 100   0   0   0  60
Dothan        73  41  63  43  67 / 100   0   0   0  50
Albany        75  41  64  40  67 / 100  10   0   0  40
Valdosta      77  44  64  40  69 / 100  20   0   0  30
Cross City    77  46  67  38  72 / 100  30   0   0  30
Apalachicola  75  46  62  47  66 /  90  10   0   0  50

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
     FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...WOOL

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jan 11, 1:54 PM EST, 49 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
154 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSW MACLAY STATE GARD 30.52N 84.26W
01/11/2014                   LEON               FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ON MACLAY ROAD. TFD ON THE
            SCENE.

&&

JSE

Local storm report, Jan 11, 1:55 PM EST, 48 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
155 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TALLAHASSEE             30.54N 84.32W
01/11/2014                   LEON               FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN MILLER LANDING AND BRILLPOINT ROADS.

&&

JSE

Local storm report, Jan 11, 2:06 PM EST, 37 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
206 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0149 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SSW WOODVILLE           30.31N 84.25W
01/11/2014                   LEON               FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN AT ELGIN ROAD AND BISMARK ROAD
            PER FHP.

&&

DVD

Local storm report, Jan 11, 2:23 PM EST, 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
223 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0144 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND ST GEORGE ISLAND        29.66N 84.86W
01/11/2014  M47 MPH          FRANKLIN           FL   MESONET

            47 MPH GUST MEASURED BY WXFLOW SITE XSTG ON ST GEORGE
            ISLAND

&&

DVD

Local storm report, Jan 11, 2:30 PM EST, 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
230 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NW NANKIN             30.71N 83.51W
01/11/2014                   BROOKS             GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON MADISON HWY

&&

JIM.BOLDEN

Local storm report, Jan 11, 2:37 PM EST, 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
237 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNE TALLAHASSEE       30.51N 84.25W
01/11/2014                   LEON               FL   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ON BOBBIN BROOK ROAD REPORTED BY PUBLIC

&&

DVD

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tallahassee, FL issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jan 11, 7:14 AM EST	Special Marine Warning	TAE		46 min
Jan 11, 7:19 AM EST	Special Marine Warning	TAE		56 min
Jan 11, 7:31 AM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Calhoun, Gulf, Liberty	29 min
Jan 11, 8:01 AM EST	Special Weather Statement	TAE	Gadsden, Liberty	44 min
Jan 11, 8:28 AM EST	Special Marine Warning	TAE		62 min
Jan 11, 8:49 AM EST	Special Marine Warning	TAE		41 min
Jan 11, 9:02 AM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Bay, Walton	28 min
Jan 11, 9:35 AM EST	Special Marine Warning	TAE		55 min
Jan 11, 10:07 AM EST	Tornado Warning	TAE	Bay	23 min
Jan 11, 10:43 AM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Holmes, Walton	47 min
Jan 11, 11:27 AM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Franklin, Liberty, Wakulla	48 min
Jan 11, 12:45 PM EST	Special Marine Warning	TAE		60 min
Jan 11, 12:50 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Calhoun, Gadsden, Gulf, Jackson, Leon, Liberty and 1 more	40 min
Jan 11, 12:59 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Franklin, Gulf, Liberty, Wakulla	46 min
Jan 11, 1:03 PM EST	Special Marine Warning	TAE		117 min
Jan 11, 1:22 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Franklin, Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, Liberty, Wakulla	38 min
Jan 11, 1:53 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Jefferson, Lafayette, Madison, Taylor	52 min
Jan 11, 2:13 PM EST	Special Marine Warning	TAE		2 hr
Jan 11, 3:24 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Dixie, Lafayette, Taylor	66 min
Jan 11, 4:10 PM EST	Special Marine Warning	TAE		35 min
Jan 11, 4:19 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Dixie	26 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Florida, 2014 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.