Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
914 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2014

...Slight Risk of Severe Storms Continues...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
The 12z KTAE sounding reveals a stable layer from the surface up to
around 1300 ft. Although we have seen some impressive velocities at
low levels this morning on the area radars, winds are not completely
mixing down, likely due to this shallow stable layer. Peak gust
we have seen measured so far has been 33 knots at Apalachicola.
Nevertheless, as pre-frontal convection to the west organizes and
moves towards the area later today, there remains a slight risk of
severe storms if the stable layer seen in the TAE sounding can
erode. There also may be less of a stable layer across the western
half of the area, and several reports of straight line wind damage
have been received up in central Alabama. In fact, we have
recently seen velocities greater than 55 knots dip below a
thousand feet on EVX radar with convection moving ashore near the
Walton/Bay county line. Low level shear is very strong with 0-1 km
shear recently up to 50 knots on the EVX VAD wind profile.
Hodographs are rather straight though, so we think the main threat
would be damaging winds with the tornado threat remaining low
locally.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12z Sunday] Rain and thunderstorms will move from west to
east across the area today. Conditions should return to VFR at
DHN/ECP around 20z and finally VLD around 23z with west to northwest
winds up to 15 knots.

&&

.Prev Discussions [355 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
The upper level pattern will remain progressive across the region
with one trough exiting east of the area tonight and another
reaching the Lower Mississippi Valley by Tuesday evening. The cold
front should exit southeast of the Lower Suwannee by 02-03z. We have
included slight to low chance PoPs roughly along and east of the
Aucilla and Withlacoochee Rivers. High pressure will then build east
along the Gulf Coast on Sunday clearing skies. Temperatures will be
cooler behind the front, but remain a few degrees above normal with
morning lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s and afternoon highs
generally in the mid 60s. The high will move off the Southeast U.S.
coast on Monday with return flow returning increasing moisture off
the Gulf of Mexico. High temps will reach the upper 60s in most
areas with lower 70s in the eastern FL Big Bend. As the next frontal
system approaches, rain chances will return to the forecast with
likely PoPs far west and chance PoPs elsewhere. With so little time
between fronts, we do expect sufficient instability to become
established to mention thunder anywhere except over the marine area
on Monday at this time.

.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
Very little change from our previous fcst over the extended period,
as the mean trough will remain entrenched over the eastern half of
the U.S. throughout the period. This will allow a series of
shortwaves to dig southeastward into our region and reinforce the
main trough, which should result in a lengthy period of below
climo (but not extreme) temps beginning on Tuesday. While the
first in this series of shortwaves will be very active with
numerous showers and thunderstorms ending by Tuesday morning, the
remaining ones are expected to be dry, and only serve to reinforce
the cool to potentially cold temperatures, especially as indicated
by the ECMWF.

.Marine...
Sea fog is expected to continue over the cooler shelf waters east
of Apalachicola through the morning and possibly into the
afternoon. Southerly winds will increase today ahead of an
approaching cold front. At this time, we expect winds and seas to
peak mainly at cautionary levels, although a brief period of
marginal advisory conditions cannot be ruled out. Winds will shift
to the west behind the front which will enter the western waters
this morning an exit east of the area this evening. Winds will
then become northwest overnight possibly reaching cautionary
levels once again. High pressure will build east Sunday through
Monday with winds becoming light and veering to onshore by Sunday
night. The next front will cross the waters Monday night into
Tuesday morning. Winds will once again reach cautionary to
marginal advisory criteria ahead of and behind this boundary. A
third front will sweep quickly across the waters Tuesday night.
Seas and offshore winds behind this front are likely to reach
advisory levels.

.Fire Weather...
After a wet day today, much drier conditions are expected on Sunday
in the wake of a cold front but red flag conditions are not expected.
Rain returns to the region on Monday.

.Hydrology...
Rainfall totals with today's frontal system will generally range
from about an inch and a half in Walton County to 3/4 of an inch in
Dixie with most areas in between around an inch. Another system on
Monday and Monday night is expected to produce roughly a half to 3/4
of an inch. While these events should cause minor rises on some area
rivers, flooding is not expected at this time.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   76  42  65  40  69 /  90  10   0   0  40
Panama City   75  46  64  48  67 / 100   0   0   0  60
Dothan        73  41  63  43  67 / 100   0   0   0  50
Albany        75  41  64  40  67 / 100  10   0   0  40
Valdosta      77  44  64  40  69 / 100  20   0   0  30
Cross City    77  46  67  38  72 / 100  30   0   0  30
Apalachicola  75  46  62  47  66 /  90  10   0   0  50

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
     FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...WOOL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1127 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1059 AM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NE OZARK              31.51N 85.58W
01/11/2014                   DALE               AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN

&&

CJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1146 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     WATER SPOUT      5 SW GULF LAGOON BEACH  30.11N 85.85W
01/11/2014                   GMZ750             FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

CJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1237 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CARYVILLE               30.77N 85.81W
01/11/2014                   WASHINGTON         FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TIN ROOF BLOWN OFF TRAILER OR TRAILER ADDITION.

&&

FOURNIER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1252 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 PM     TSTM WND DMG     W BLOUNTSTOWN           30.44N 85.05W
01/11/2014                   CALHOUN            FL   911 CALL CENTER

            LOTS OF TREES DOWN REPORTED BY CALHOUN COUNTY DISPATCH.

&&

JSE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
114 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0111 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WSW QUINCY            30.56N 84.63W
01/11/2014                   GADSDEN            FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE DOWN ACROSS BEN BOSTICK ROAD BLOCKING TRAFFIC.

&&

JIM.BOLDEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
117 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DALKEITH                30.01N 85.15W
01/11/2014                   GULF               FL   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN NEAR COUNTY ROAD 381

&&

DVD