River Flood Warning 20, NWS Tallahassee, FL

820 
WGUS82 KTAE 261130
FLSTAE
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
730 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
GEORGIA...
 
  WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER NEAR QUITMAN (US 84) AFFECTING BROOKS AND 
  LOWNDES COUNTIES

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST 
FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT 
LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU 
SEE FLOOD WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN.

FOR GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND 
CLICK ON YOUR STATE. SELECT RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT 
CONDITIONS AND CLICK ON YOUR RIVER POINT.

&&

GAC027-185-261200-
/O.CAN.KTAE.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-140326T1130Z/
/QUTG1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.140324T1515Z.140325T2117Z.NO/
730 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE WITHLACOOCHEE
RIVER NEAR QUITMAN (US 84).
* AT  7:00 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET. 

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
946 AM EDT Tue Mar 25 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Forecast on track today for a cool sunny day across the area. 12Z
surface analysis shows a weak pressure gradient over the area with
high pressure to our northwest that will approach the area today,
continuing to advect cold and drier air into the region. A weak
surface trough can be seen in the wind shift across the Florida Big
Bend and localized areas of low pressure in central Georgia and
north-central South Carolina. In our area the trough stretches from
east of Apalachicola and Tallahassee to Thomasville and Fitzgerald.
At mid and upper levels, a highly amplified trough lies over the
eastern CONUS, with the jet stream and the subtropical jet
converging over the eastern Gulf states. Increased divergence on the
downstream half of the trough will help deepen the surface low over
the Carolinas today as it moves offshore, deepening the pressure
gradient. This will make for a gusty day, with gusts to around 30-35
MPH this afternoon. With the cold air moving in, maximum
temperatures will stay in the low 60s in southeast Alabama and parts
of southwest Georgia to low 70s in the eastern Big Bend, despite
mostly sunny skies.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Wednesday] VFR cigs will prevail through the period
with northwest winds gusting to 20-26 knots today. Winds will
decrease after sunset and should generally stay around 10 knots or
less through the rest of the period, although occasional gusts to
around 15 knots will still be possible overnight.

&&

.Prev Discussion [430 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
The system developing off the FL coast is destined to bomb in
rather spectacular fashion as it races northeastward well off the
Eastern Seaboard. In the wake of the low, strong high pressure
will build southeast to the Tennessee Valley by Wednesday morning.
This airmass is of modified arctic origin and will bring
unseasonably cold temperatures to the Gulf Coast. The high
position is not ideal for efficient radiational cooling, but we
should see enough cold advection to bring temps down to around
freezing by dawn Wednesday across our northern zones. The coldest
areas in Coffee County may see the required 2-hr durations for a
warning, but most areas are expected to only just touch freezing.
Because of the marginal nature of this event, we plan to leave the
freeze watch in place after coordination with WFO JAX and let the
day shift make the final call after they get a look at one more
suite of guidance. People that have sensitive plants and are
concerned about freezing temps should not wait for the warning to
begin taking protective actions. A few spots could even see some
frost, which would be another concern, but the current thinking is
that will see just enough wind to prevent frost formation in most
areas, and particularly in wooded and urban areas, which are also
less likely to see freezing temps. Daytime highs on Wednesday will
only reach the upper 50s in AL and GA and lower 60s in FL. This is
below normal even for January and some 13-15 degrees below seasonal
levels.

The surface high will build east and move off the NC coast by
Thursday afternoon. This will swing low level winds around to
onshore which will allow temps to moderate. Min temps will mainly be
in the upper 30s inland Wednesday night. We cannot rule out some
patchy frost over the Suwannee Valley early Thursday morning where
some mid 30s will be possible. After that, afternoon temps will
recover nicely to the upper 60s and lower 70s. We will also maintain
a slight chance for showers on Thursday for the southern zones.

.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
We'll transition out of an unseasonably cool and dry pattern into
a wet pattern with more seasonable temperatures through the
extended range forecast. A frontal system will enter the Tri-State
region on Friday, and not completely clear out until sometime on
Sunday when conditions will begin to dry out once again.

.Marine...
Deepening low pressure off the Southeast U.S. coast will combine
with strong high pressure building into the Mississippi and
Tennessee Valleys to produce a strengthening pressure gradient
across the Northeast Gulf of Mexico today. Winds will increase to
small craft advisory levels and remain elevated through the night.
Conditions will briefly subside below headline criteria Wednesday
afternoon before increasing to cautionary or marginal advisory
levels Wednesday night into Friday. This time the winds will be
onshore ahead of our next frontal system which will reach or cross
the waters on Saturday.

.Fire Weather...
Dry air should begin arriving today, and in particular this
afternoon. Although forecast models are a little inconsistent in how
low to drop dew points, the most likely scenario creates widespread
minimum RH of around 23-25%. RH values that low put red flag
criteria in play in all of our zones today. Details follow.

 * For Alabama: we should see a combination of RH below 25% and winds
   of 20 mph. Therefore, a Red Flag Warning will be issued for today.

 * For Georgia: it appears likely that we will see RH reach 25% in
   combination with winds of at least 15 mph. The questionable part
   of the criteria for today will be 10-hr fuel moisture. Yesterday,
   these levels dropped to around 7% in the mid-late afternoon near
   the northern part of our forecast area at Americus, and were
   slightly higher (8%) at Camilla. Based on dry, windy, and sunny
   weather today and a forecast for 6% fuel moisture at Americus
   from the GA Forestry Commission - we expect that northern parts
   of our area may reach red flag criteria. However, the values are
   likely to be higher at Camilla and Adel. Therefore the RFW area
   that has been issued for SW GA was placed further north and
   coordinated with WFO FFC.

 * For Florida: forecast ERC values are not sufficiently high to
   warrant a Red Flag Warning for any combination of criteria.

By tomorrow, winds will diminish, which makes it unlikely that red
flag conditions will occur Wednesday in our GA or FL zones. However,
long durations of low RH may occur in SE Alabama so a Fire Weather
Watch was posted for those areas.

.Hydrology...
Most rivers across the region have crested and are slowly receding
with only a few points still above flood stage. The Ochlockonee at
Havana and Aucilla at Lamont will fall below flood stage later
today. The Withlacoochee near Quitman doesn't have far to go either.
The Lower Withlacoochee and Suwannee Rivers continue to rise and
will likely continue to do so through the weekend. However, the
chance of flooding is low.

For the latest river stages and forecasts, please visit:

water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  34  62  39  71 /  10   0   0   0  20
Panama City   67  39  60  47  68 /  10   0   0  10  20
Dothan        63  32  60  41  70 /   0   0   0   0  10
Albany        64  31  59  39  70 /   0   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      71  32  61  38  73 /  10   0   0   0  10
Cross City    72  34  62  36  72 /  10   0   0   0  20
Apalachicola  69  38  60  46  67 /  10   0   0   0  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for
     Holmes-Inland Walton.

GA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for
     Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Dougherty-
     Early-Irwin-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Terrell-
     Tift-Turner-Worth.

     Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for Ben Hill-Calhoun-Clay-Dougherty-Early-Lee-
     Quitman-Randolph-Terrell-Turner-Worth.

AL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...WOOL