Freeze Warning 5, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Coffee County, AL, Dale County, AL, Geneva County, AL, Henry County, AL, Houston County, AL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Walton County, FL, Baker County, GA, Ben Hill County, GA, Berrien County, GA, Brooks County, GA, Calhoun County, GA, Clay County, GA, Colquitt County, GA, Cook County, GA, Decatur County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Early County, GA, Grady County, GA, Irwin County, GA, Lanier County, GA, Lee County, GA, Lowndes County, GA, Miller County, GA, Mitchell County, GA, Quitman County, GA, Randolph County, GA, Seminole County, GA, Terrell County, GA, Thomas County, GA, Tift County, GA, Turner County, GA, Worth County, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
237 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2014

...Light freeze expected tomorrow morning in southeast Alabama
and southwest Georgia...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
A rapidly deepening low pressure system lies off the Atlantic coast
of the Carolinas and will continue to deepen as it slides northward
along the Atlantic coastline. To our west, an area of high pressure
with very cold, dry air will continue to head eastward into the
area, further enhancing the tightening pressure gradient. For our
area, this means a windy day and night with gusts of 30-35 MPH today
and 15-20 MPH overnight, starting to weaken further around midnight
from west to east as the deep low pressure system lifts northward.
Maximum temperatures are on track to stay in the low 60s in
southeast Alabama and parts of southwest Georgia to low 70s in the
eastern Big Bend, despite mostly sunny skies. With a very cold
airmass in place, lows will be unseasonably cold, dipping into the
low to mid 30s by the early morning hours. In southeast Alabama and
southwest Georgia, a light freeze is expected with temperatures
dipping 30-32 degrees for 2-3 hours.

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
The period begins with high pressure building over the Tennessee
River Valley moving toward the Atlantic Coast by Thursday. While
the winds will be lighter on Wednesday afternoon, the chilly and
dry airmass that was advected into the region on Tuesday will be
slow to warm. Despite full late March sunshine, highs will
struggle to get out of the lower 60s.

Wednesday night, high pressure will center just off the Mid
Alantic Coast with southeasterly flow developing by daybreak.
Advancing mid and upper level cloudiness will help limit minimum
temperatures to generally the mid and upper 30s.

Thursday is a transition day as the storm system taking shape
across the Central Plains begins to move eastward. The airmass
still won't have moistened enough to generate any shower activity
in the southerly flow ahead of the storm system. Temperatures
though will be much warmer, with highs in the low to mid 70s.

Conditions will deteriorate more quickly on Thursday night as
forcing increases ahead of the approaching storm system. Model
guidance seems to indicate one enhanced area of showers and
stronger storms just to the south of the Florida Panhandle late
Thursday night into early Friday morning, with lighter activity
spreading across the northern zones. For now, will show increasing
pops after midnight across the entire forecast area, with the
greatest chance across the Florida Panhandle and adjacent waters.

.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...
By Friday the upper level pattern is split with a shallow trough
over Iowa and a some additional energy over the GOM. As this energy
transitions eastward, showers and isolated thunderstorms will
develop over our CWA. As this impulse moves out on Sat, a much
deeper trough slides down from the northwest. At the surface, a cold
front with widespread shower activity will move into the area on
Saturday Afternoon. Conditions improve on Sunday, leading to a
tranquil end of the period with highs in the mid 70s and lows
ranging in the upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Wednesday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
period with northwest winds gusting to 20-30 knots today. Winds
will decrease after sunset and should generally stay around 10
knots or less through the rest of the period, although gusts to
around 15-20 knots will still be possible overnight.

&&

.Marine...
The pressure gradient will remain tight between a strong low
pressure system in the Western Atlantic and a high pressure area
over the Mid Mississippi River Valley. Advisory conditions are
expected into Wednesday afternoon until the high pressure area
builds close enough to the waters for winds to subside. This
period of lighter winds will be short lived as onshore winds
increase Thursday afternoon ahead of the next system. At least
cautionary level winds and unsettled conditions are anticipated
through the end of this week.

&&

.Fire Weather...
A very dry, cold airmass will cross our forecast area today and
tomorrow. Minimum relative humidity values today are in the low 20s
and will dip into the mid-teens tomorrow afternoon. 20 foot wind
speeds are high today, but will follow a decreasing pattern after
sunset tonight. Red flag warnings are out today in Alabama for a
combination of low relative humidities and high winds and in Georgia
for low relative humidities and fuel moisture and high winds.
Tomorrow, a red flag warning is in effect for Alabama for a 5 to 6
hour duration of relative humidities below 25 percent. In Florida,
although duration criteria will be met as well, ERC values are
expected to remain well below 37. In Georgia, wind will be below red
flag criteria. After Wednesday, relative humidity values will begin
to increase again, remaining above critical thresholds for the
remainder of the period.

&&

.Hydrology...
Only three rivers remain in flood stage. The Ochlockonee at Havana
is currently at 25.19 feet and will fall below flood stage by this
evening. The Aucilla at Lamont is currently at 54.22 feet and will
fall below flood stage by Wednesday evening. The Withlacoochee at
Quitman is also in flood stage and several other rivers remain in
action stage. The next chance for significant rainfall will be
Thursday night into Friday.

For the latest river stages and forecasts, please visit:

water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   33  61  36  71  57 /   0   0   0  10  40
Panama City   39  60  46  70  61 /   0   0   0  10  60
Dothan        32  61  39  72  57 /   0   0   0  10  40
Albany        31  60  37  72  56 /   0   0   0  10  30
Valdosta      32  61  36  72  55 /   0   0   0  10  30
Cross City    33  62  36  75  57 /   0   0   0  10  40
Apalachicola  37  59  44  68  62 /   0   0   0  10  60

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for Holmes-Inland
     Walton-Jackson.

GA...Freeze Warning from 5 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for Baker-Ben
     Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-
     Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-
     Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-
     Turner-Worth.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for Ben Hill-
     Calhoun-Clay-Dougherty-Early-Lee-Quitman-Randolph-Terrell-
     Turner-Worth.

AL...Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

     Red Flag Warning from Noon to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday from Destin to
     the Suwannee River out to 60 nautical miles.

&&

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...WALSH/GODSEY
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...WESTON