Flash Flood Warning 55, NWS Tallahassee, FL

051 
WGUS72 KTAE 241440
FFSTAE

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
840 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

FLC013-039-063-077-GAC087-253-241450-
/O.CAN.KTAE.FF.W.0055.000000T0000Z-141224T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DECATUR GA-SEMINOLE GA-CALHOUN FL-JACKSON FL-GADSDEN FL-LIBERTY FL-
840 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR NORTH CENTRAL
LIBERTY AND NORTHWESTERN GADSDEN COUNTIES IN FLORIDA...AND
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON AND EASTERN CALHOUN COUNTIES IN THE PANHANDLE OF
FLORIDA...AND SOUTHEASTERN SEMINOLE AND SOUTHWESTERN DECATUR COUNTIES
IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...

LAT...LON 3085 8478 3076 8463 3029 8513 3039 8527

$$

11-MOORE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
510 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

In the mid and upper levels, there is a deep trough over the MS
River Valley. At the sfc, there is a cold front near LA/MS border
that will continue moving eastward. There is warm moist air in place
with dewpoints in the lower 70s for much of the area. Isolated
severe storms will continue overnight and into the morning hours.
Strong wind shear (0-6km around 60kts) will aid in the development
of storms. Isolated tornadoes remain a possibility with 0-1km shear
in excess of 40kts. The cold front will move through during the
afternoon hours today. Rain and thunderstorms will continue to move
through the area until the cold front passes. Three to ten inches
of rain fell over the region yesterday. One to two inches of additional
rain is likely through today. Winds will be gusty and southerly
ahead of the front and gusty and westerly behind the front. Lows
tonight will be in the lower 60s and highs tomorrow will be in the
upper 60s for western portions of the CWA and in the lower 70s
elsewhere.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

The strong, highly amplified northern stream trough will begin to
lift northeast rapidly tonight as a slug of +PVA punches into the
back of trough forcing the entire, large anomaly into the fast
southwesterly upper-level flow. At this time, the front and
associated convection will be mostly through the southeast Big
Bend of Florida. However, due to the rather significant vertical
tilt to this system there will still be plenty of moisture and
forcing aloft to generate some light rain across portions of south
Georgia and north Florida to begin the evening hours. This will
primarily be confined to locations east of the Apalachicola river
in Florida and east of Albany in Georgia. By midnight all showers
should have come to an end. Overnight lows tonight will range from
the upper 30s across southeast Alabama and our extreme western
Panhandle counties, to around 50 degrees near Cross City.

The remainder of the short term period will feature much welcomed,
drier conditions. Highs on Thursday will be around 60 degrees for
most locations, except the middle 60s will be more common across
the southeast Big Bend of Florida. Thursday night, lows will fall
into the middle and upper 30s area-wide, with mid 40s along the
coast. Friday, high temperatures will warm to above seasonal
averages. Highs will range from the middle 60s across southeast
Alabama to the lower 70s across the southeast Big Bend.

.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

The Tri-State region will reside under deep layer southwesterly
flow between a central/western CONUS trough and a ridge centered
over the Florida Straits. This will result a somewhat wet pattern
across the northwestern half of the forecast area, and dry to the
southeast. The best chance for rain will be over the weekend when
a shortwave results in some weak cyclogenesis along the northern
Gulf coast. Afternoon highs and overnight lows will remain above
average through the period, especially over the southeastern half
of the area.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday]

IFR ceilings and visibilities will prevail (with brief
improvements to MVFR occasionally) with widespread showers and
thunderstorms at all terminals throughout most of the TAF period.
A cold front will move through during the afternoon hours bringing
an end to the rain with conditions improving to VFR. Winds will
be gusty ahead and behind the front. Some storms may be severe.

&&

.Marine...

Strong southerly winds with gusts to near gale force will continue
ahead of a cold front this afternoon. Behind the front, winds will
turn westerly around 20 knots. By tonight winds will fall to below
advisory levels, though seas won't fall to below headline levels
until some time Thursday afternoon.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected for the next
several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

At most, another 1 to 3 inches will fall ahead of a passing cold
front today. However, the damage is done across area rivers from
yesterdays rain. Most area rivers show sharp rises, though due to
the antecedent low flows many will not reach flood stage. There
are some exceptions though, most notably the Shoal River,
especially near Mossy Head which is sky-rocketing towards minor
flood stage. Over the longer term, the Ochlockonee river appears
to have been hit hardest and is forecast to reach moderate flood
stage by the weekend. Other honorable mentions are the Kinchafoonee
creek, Withlacoochee, St. Marks, and Apalachicola rivers which
are all forecast to reach minor flood stage. A period of dry
weather is expected to finish out the week, followed by the
possibility for only light QPF going through this weekend into
next week. Thus, no further agitation to the rivers is forecast.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   71  45  60  37  67 / 100  30   0   0   0
Panama City   69  46  59  45  66 / 100  10   0   0  10
Dothan        68  39  58  38  63 / 100  10   0   0  10
Albany        70  41  59  36  65 / 100  30   0   0   0
Valdosta      72  46  61  37  67 / 100  30   0   0   0
Cross City    74  51  64  37  71 / 100  60   0   0   0
Apalachicola  71  49  59  45  64 / 100  20   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for Calhoun-Central
     Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal
     Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-
     Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-
     Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-
     Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South
     Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Thursday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
331 AM EST WED DEC 24 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 AM     FLASH FLOOD      DE FUNIAK SPRINGS       30.72N 86.12W
12/24/2014                   WALTON             FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A 10 FOOT SWATH OF WATER WAS COMPLETELY COVERING THE
            SOUTHBOUND LANE OF US HWY 83 SOUTH.

&&

GOULD