Alert archive / North Carolina / Tornado Watches in 2014

Tornado Watch 554

November 17, 201426 counties in North Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 17, 2014, 10:26 AM EST for 26 counties in North Carolina. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Nov 17, 2014, 10:26 AM EST (15:26 UTC)
Expired: Nov 17, 2014, 5:53 PM EST
In force: 7 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 1 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

All 26 counties

Beaufort County, NC, Bertie County, NC, Brunswick County, NC, Camden County, NC, Carteret County, NC, Chowan County, NC, Craven County, NC, Currituck County, NC, Dare County, NC, Duplin County, NC, Gates County, NC, Greene County, NC, Hertford County, NC, Hyde County, NC, Jones County, NC, Lenoir County, NC, Martin County, NC, New Hanover County, NC, Onslow County, NC, Pamlico County, NC, Pasquotank County, NC, Pender County, NC, Perquimans County, NC, Pitt County, NC, Tyrrell County, NC, Washington County, NC

The radar

The Morehead City radar (KMHX), 73 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 20%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 10%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 20%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 60%

Warnings issued inside it

1 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 17, 11:42 AM EST	Tornado Warning	MHX	Beaufort, Hyde, Washington	33 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 12:00Z, 3.4 hours before the alert went out and 72 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 849 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 57 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 227 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 256 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

280 
WWUS20 KWNS 171531
SEL4  
SPC WW 171531
NCZ000-CWZ000-172300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 554
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
  COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1025 AM UNTIL
  600 PM EST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
JACKSONVILLE NORTH CAROLINA TO 45 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
ELIZABETH CITY NORTH CAROLINA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE
WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 553...

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS/TSTMS FORMING ALONG SSW/NNE CONFLUENCE ZONE
OVER SRN AND ERN NC MAY SOMEWHAT INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH
THROUGH EARLY AFTN AS SFC HEATING AND APPRECIABLE LOW-LVL MOISTURE
INFLOW OCCUR BENEATH GLANCING INFLUENCE OF FAST-MOVING TN VLY UPR
IMPULSE. COMBINATION OF 80 KT SWLY DEEP SHEAR...PW AOA 1.25
INCHES...AND LIKELY DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND
POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SVR HAIL BEFORE CONFLUENCE ZONE SHIFTS E OFF THE
CST LATER IN THE DAY.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.


...CORFIDI

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 17, 9:56 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Beaufort, Bladen, Brunswick, Carteret, Chowan, Columbus and 19 more	2 hr
Nov 17, 1:19 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Beaufort, Bertie, Camden, Carteret, Chowan, Craven and 17 more	116 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in North Carolina, 2014 Every tornado watch in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.