Alert archive / Iowa / Tornado Watches in 2014

Tornado Watch 482

August 31, 201431 counties in Iowa; 8 counties in Missouri; Nemaha County, Richardson County, Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Aug 31, 2014, 7:12 PM CDT for 31 counties in Iowa; 8 counties in Missouri; Nemaha County, Richardson County, Nebraska. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 31, 2014, 7:12 PM CDT (00:12 UTC)
Expired
Sep 1, 2014, 12:47 AM CDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
65 kt
All 41 counties

Adair County, IA, Adams County, IA, Audubon County, IA, Boone County, IA, Calhoun County, IA, Carroll County, IA, Cass County, IA, Clarke County, IA, Dallas County, IA, Decatur County, IA, Fremont County, IA, Greene County, IA, Grundy County, IA, Guthrie County, IA, Hamilton County, IA, Hardin County, IA, Jasper County, IA, Lucas County, IA, Madison County, IA, Marion County, IA, Marshall County, IA, Montgomery County, IA, Page County, IA, Polk County, IA, Ringgold County, IA, Story County, IA, Taylor County, IA, Union County, IA, Warren County, IA, Wayne County, IA, Webster County, IA, Andrew County, MO, Atchison County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Holt County, MO, Mercer County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Worth County, MO, Nemaha County, NE, Richardson County, NE

The radar

The Des Moines radar (KDMX), 56 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
50%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
30%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

21 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 31, 7:29 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXCalhoun, Pocahontas, Sac, Webster46 min
Aug 31, 7:33 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXAudubon, Calhoun, Carroll, Greene, Guthrie42 min
Aug 31, 7:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXHumboldt, Kossuth, Palo Alto, Pocahontas, Webster46 min
Aug 31, 7:47 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXFremont, Mills28 min
Aug 31, 8:02 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXAudubon, Boone, Carroll, Dallas, Greene, Guthrie58 min
Aug 31, 8:03 PM CDTTornado WarningOAXFremont27 min
Aug 31, 8:06 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXBoone, Calhoun, Carroll, Greene, Hamilton, Webster54 min
Aug 31, 8:08 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXHancock, Humboldt, Kossuth, Webster, Wright52 min
Aug 31, 8:19 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXFremont, Page26 min
Aug 31, 8:27 PM CDTTornado WarningDMXCalhoun, Hamilton, Webster33 min
Aug 31, 8:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOAXPage31 min
Aug 31, 8:46 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXBoone, Dallas, Polk, Story59 min
Aug 31, 8:48 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXBoone, Story57 min
Aug 31, 9:07 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXAndrew, Buchanan, Clinton, DeKalb, Gentry, Holt53 min
Aug 31, 9:12 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXBlack Hawk, Bremer, Butler, Franklin, Grundy, Hardin and 1 more48 min
Aug 31, 9:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXMarshall, Tama60 min
Aug 31, 9:46 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXDallas, Polk44 min
Aug 31, 9:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXBlack Hawk, Bremer, Butler, Grundy, Tama50 min
Aug 31, 10:09 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXJasper, Mahaska, Marion, Warren51 min
Aug 31, 10:10 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningDMXDallas, Polk6 hr
Aug 31, 10:54 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningDMXClarke, Lucas, Madison, Marion, Warren6 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 00:00Z, 0.2 hours before the alert went out and 170 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Omaha, NE at 00:00Z on 2014-09-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1500 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Omaha, NE at 00:00Z on 2014-09-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 115 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1500 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-36 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1054 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
25 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
115 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
294 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.7
Supercell composite
6.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

475 
WWUS20 KWNS 010015
SEL2  
SPC WW 010015
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-010700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 482
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
715 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA
  NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
  EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 715 PM
  UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
    MPH POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
    INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTH OF DES MOINES
IOWA TO 40 MILES EAST OF FALLS CITY NEBRASKA.  FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 479...WW 480...WW 481...

DISCUSSION...MESSY MIX OF SUPERCELLS...MULTICELLS AND QUASI-LINEAR
TSTM SEGMENTS SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY W-E ACROSS WW AREA THIS
EVENING...OFFERING SOME RISK FOR EACH SEVERE HAZARD.  RELATIVELY
MAXIMIZED TORNADO POTENTIAL...WHETHER FROM SUPERCELLS OR QLCS
CIRCULATIONS...WOULD BE OVER PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL IA...NEAR AND N OF
OLD OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING BOUNDARY -- WHERE RELATIVELY BACKED
FLOW...RELATED HODOGRAPH ENHANCEMENT...RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE...AND LOW LCL ARE EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS BENEATH
STRENGTHENING LLJ.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.


...EDWARDS

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 31, 9:09 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Appanoose, Benton, Black Hawk, Bremer, Buchanan and 39 more96 min
Aug 31, 9:45 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllamakee, Appanoose, Benton, Black Hawk, Buchanan, Cedar and 27 more4 hr
Aug 31, 8:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdair, Bates, Buchanan, Caldwell, Carroll, Cass and 23 more8 hr
Aug 31, 9:39 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBuchanan, Caldwell, Carroll, Cass, Chariton, Clay and 11 more96 min
Sep 1, 3:51 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarry, Barton, Benton, Camden, Cedar, Christian and 34 more2 hr
Sep 1, 5:57 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAudrain, Barry, Barton, Bates, Benton, Boone and 49 more8 hr
Sep 1, 2:47 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBox Butte, Cherry, Dawes, Keya Paha, Sheridan, Sioux88 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Iowa, 2014Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2014Tornado Watches in Nebraska, 2014Every tornado watch in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.