Severe Thunderstorm Warning 277, NWS Des Moines, IA

267 
WWUS53 KDMX 010048
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
748 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

IAC009-025-027-073-077-010115-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0277.000000T0000Z-140901T0115Z/
CARROLL IA-AUDUBON IA-CALHOUN IA-GUTHRIE IA-GREENE IA-
748 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR CARROLL...AUDUBON...SOUTHEASTERN CALHOUN...GUTHRIE AND GREENE
COUNTIES...

AT 747 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR CARROLL TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF COON RAPIDS TO 4
MILES SOUTHWEST OF AUDUBON...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...AT 745 PM...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED SEVERAL TREE 
LIMBS DOWN IN MANNING.  

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE 
         TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE 
         HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CARROLL...JEFFERSON...AUDUBON...GUTHRIE CENTER...MANNING...COON
RAPIDS...GLIDDEN...PANORA...LAKE PANORAMA...EXIRA...GRAND JUNCTION...
ADAIR...ELK HORN...SCRANTON...BAYARD...CASEY...CHURDAN...TEMPLETON...
KIMBALLTON AND BAGLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMAIN ALERT FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO! TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY
FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU SPOT A TORNADO GO AT ONCE INTO THE
BASEMENT OR SMALL CENTRAL ROOM IN A STURDY STRUCTURE.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHWEST IOWA.A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM
CDT MONDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHWEST IOWA.

LAT...LON 4191 9509 4221 9493 4221 9486 4222 9486
      4223 9440 4221 9439 4221 9423 4186 9427
      4186 9428 4179 9428 4150 9451 4151 9504
      4160 9504 4160 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 0047Z 280DEG 43KT 4209 9482 4193 9482 4179 9487 4169
9502

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

PODRAZIK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
710 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. WARM ADVECTION BASED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER WESTERN IOWA WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK OVER CENTRAL IOWA AND HAS LED TO SFC
BASED CAPPING THROUGH THE AREA. THE SFC INSTABILITY IS MUCH STRONGER
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS AND THIS SHOULD BE THE
AREA FOR SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT. STORMS MAY BE INITIALLY
SUPERCELLULAR OVER THAT REGION BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
MORE LINEAR THREAT AS THE SYSTEM ADVANCES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
IOWA. STILL POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THUS THE REASON FOR
THE INCLUSION OF A FEW WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE CURRENT TORNADO
WATCH. THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND POOLING OF MOISTURE OCCURS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY WILL ARRIVE
THIS EVENING WILL HELP STORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT.
STORMS INITIALLY SHOULD BE MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE INSTABILITY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS. DEVELOPING
COLD POOLS AND THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO ANOTHER ISSUE OVERNIGHT. CURRENT PWAT VALUES
ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE AND GENERALLY UNDER 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER
SHOULD HAVE POOLING OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ARRIVES AND
WILL PUSH VALUES TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND WILL HELP LEAD TO FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR WARM RAIN PROCESSES. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE AREA WHERE THE LOWEST FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES EXIST IN ADDITION TO THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE BETWEEN 00-09Z WITH THE DES MOINES
METRO THREAT BETWEEN 03-07Z.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE STRETCHED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY MONDAY MORNING. SOME LINGERING STORMS OR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THETA E
ADVECTION IN PLACE. SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR ALONG WITH ENERGY
ALOFT TO SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. COULD SEE
SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH THIS ENERGY AS WELL...BUT MAJORITY OF
PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH/EAST OF THE CWA. STILL SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY AROUND WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...AND WEAK
BOUNDARY SO HAVE KEPT SOME SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH
ALOFT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRIEFLY.

RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT ALOFT LIFTING
NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASE OFF THE GULF. COULD SEE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH
THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEWPOINTS PUSH INTO 70S
WEDNESDAY...WITH HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL
WAVE TO PUSH EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL US LATE
IN THE WEEK. SFC LOW TO TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE CWA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TO THE STATE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO THE WEEKEND. EXTENDED RANGE TRYING TO BRING A WEAK SYSTEM
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT LOOKS LIKE MAIN TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST FOR NOW. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT WARMING TEMPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH A COOL OFF TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...01/00Z
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN WILL OBVIOUSLY BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND
ASSOCIATED CATEGORY DEGRADATION. STORMS SHOULD BE QUITE ACTIVE
THIS EVENING WITH PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
DETAILS ON HOW LOW INDIVIDUAL STORMS GO HAVE LITTLE PREDICTABILITY
SO STARTED WITH IFR BUT CERTAINLY COULD GO LOWER. EXPECT
THIS CONVECTION TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING FOLLOWED
BY MORE TRANQUIL VFR CONDITIONS INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CONCERNS FOR FLOODING CONTINUE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. CURRENT PROFILES REMAIN QUITE DRY BELOW 700 MB HOWEVER
MOISTURE ADVECTION LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT SHOULD HELP
PUSH PWAT VALUES TO NEAR 1.6 INCHES OVER A NARROW CORRIDOR BY THIS
EVENING. RECENT RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
COUNTIES...HAVE PRODUCED NEAR SATURATED GROUND ENOUGH TO LOWER
THE THREE HOUR FFG VALUES TO NEAR 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE AS A
RESULT OF HIGH RUNOFF RATES. A WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH
RAINFALL WITH SPOTTY THREE INCH AMOUNTS IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
GIVEN THE LOW FFG VALUES...LOCAL FLASH FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR HEADLINES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-
BOONE-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-DECATUR-GREENE-GUTHRIE-
MADISON-POLK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN.

&&

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL
HYDROLOGY...MS AUG 14/DONAVON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
407 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

IAZ044>048-057>059-070>073-081>083-092>094-011000-
CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-CASS-
ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-
407 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...WITH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME
STORMS PRODUCING RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

IAZ060-011000-
POLK-
407 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...WITH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME
STORMS PRODUCING RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-049-050-061-062-074-075-
084>086-095>097-011000-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-MARSHALL-TAMA-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-MARION-MAHASKA-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-
DAVIS-
407 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...WITH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME
STORMS PRODUCING RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

MJB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
656 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             DOW CITY                41.93N 95.49W
08/31/2014  E1.00 INCH       CRAWFORD           IA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF 1" HAIL RELAYED BY
            SHERIFF'S OFFICE

&&