Alert archive / Oklahoma / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2014

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 528

October 12, 20146 counties in Kansas; 21 counties in Oklahoma; 16 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Oct 12, 2014, 3:48 PM CDT for 6 counties in Kansas; 21 counties in Oklahoma; 16 counties in Texas. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 12, 2014, 3:48 PM CDT (20:48 UTC)
Expired: Oct 12, 2014, 11:00 PM CDT
In force: 7 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 1.5 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

All 43 counties

Barber County, KS, Clark County, KS, Comanche County, KS, Harper County, KS, Meade County, KS, Seward County, KS, Alfalfa County, OK, Beaver County, OK, Beckham County, OK, Blaine County, OK, Caddo County, OK, Comanche County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Custer County, OK, Dewey County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Greer County, OK, Harmon County, OK, Harper County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Major County, OK, Roger Mills County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Washita County, OK, Woods County, OK, Woodward County, OK, Childress County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Donley County, TX, Foard County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Motley County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Wheeler County, TX, Wichita County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX

The radar

The Vance AFB radar (KVNX), 174 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 5%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 2%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 20%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 20%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 60%

Warnings issued inside it

20 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 12, 3:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Meade, Seward	55 min
Oct 12, 4:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Clark, Meade	66 min
Oct 12, 5:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Beckham	25 min
Oct 12, 7:06 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	AMA	Armstrong, Collingsworth, Donley, Gray, Hemphill, Roberts and 1 more	54 min
Oct 12, 7:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Custer, Washita	53 min
Oct 12, 7:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	AMA	Hemphill, Lipscomb, Ochiltree, Roberts	66 min
Oct 12, 7:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Barber, Comanche, Kiowa	44 min
Oct 12, 8:11 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Blaine, Caddo, Custer, Washita	49 min
Oct 12, 8:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Greer, Harmon, Kiowa	53 min
Oct 12, 8:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Greer, Harmon, Jackson	51 min
Oct 12, 8:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Greer, Jackson, Kiowa, Tillman	53 min
Oct 12, 8:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Custer, Greer, Kiowa, Washita	47 min
Oct 12, 9:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Comanche, Kiowa, Tillman	64 min
Oct 12, 9:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Baylor, Foard, Knox, Wilbarger	34 min
Oct 12, 9:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Kingfisher	40 min
Oct 12, 9:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Caddo, Kiowa, Washita	44 min
Oct 12, 9:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Cotton, Tillman	40 min
Oct 12, 10:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Tillman	30 min
Oct 12, 10:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Cotton, Grady and 2 more	68 min
Oct 12, 10:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Cotton, Jefferson, Stephens, Tillman	50 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 189 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1460 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 231 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 202 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 12, 3:09 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barber, Clark, Comanche, Meade, Seward	96 min
Oct 12, 5:51 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Chautauqua, Cowley, Elk, Labette, Montgomery	114 min
Oct 12, 6:37 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Comanche	53 min
Oct 12, 2:27 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cimarron, Texas	2 hr
Oct 12, 3:50 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Angelina, Austin, Colorado, Fort Bend, Grimes, Hardin and 15 more	85 min
Oct 12, 5:39 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Brown, Callahan, Coleman, Comanche, Concho, Eastland and 11 more	96 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Oklahoma, 2014 Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Texas, 2014 Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Kansas, 2014 Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.