Alert archive / Virginia / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2014

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418

July 14, 20148 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 14, 2014, 1:24 PM EDT for 8 states. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 14, 2014, 1:24 PM EDT (17:24 UTC)
Expired: Jul 14, 2014, 9:00 PM EDT
In force: 8 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 1.5 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

All 118 counties

Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, CT, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, CT, Kent County, DE, New Castle County, DE, Sussex County, DE, Allegany County, MD, Anne Arundel County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, Calvert County, MD, Caroline County, MD, Carroll County, MD, Cecil County, MD, Charles County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Frederick County, MD, Harford County, MD, Howard County, MD, Kent County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Washington County, MD, Atlantic County, NJ, Bergen County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Cape May County, NJ, Cumberland County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Ocean County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Bronx County, NY, Kings County, NY, Nassau County, NY, New York County, NY, Orange County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Queens County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Westchester County, NY, Adams County, PA, Bedford County, PA, Berks County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Chester County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Fulton County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Perry County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, York County, PA, Albemarle County, VA, Arlington County, VA, Augusta County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Charlottesville, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Harrisonburg, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, City of Staunton, VA, City of Waynesboro, VA, City of Winchester, VA, Clarke County, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Frederick County, VA, Greene County, VA, Highland County, VA, King George County, VA, Loudoun County, VA, Madison County, VA, Nelson County, VA, Orange County, VA, Page County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Rockingham County, VA, Shenandoah County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Warren County, VA, Berkeley County, WV, Grant County, WV, Hampshire County, WV, Hardy County, WV, Jefferson County, WV, Mineral County, WV, Morgan County, WV, Pendleton County, WV

The radar

The Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 135 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 2%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 60%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 10%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 50%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 80%

Warnings issued inside it

32 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 14, 2:45 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Dauphin, Lebanon, Perry	45 min
Jul 14, 2:57 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Fauquier, Rappahannock, Warren	33 min
Jul 14, 3:10 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Culpeper, Fauquier, Rappahannock	35 min
Jul 14, 3:31 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Culpeper, Fauquier, Rappahannock	29 min
Jul 14, 3:43 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PHI	Bucks, Montgomery	62 min
Jul 14, 3:47 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Fairfax, Fauquier, Loudoun, Prince William, City of Fairfax, City of Manassas and 1 more	43 min
Jul 14, 4:12 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PHI	Monmouth, Ocean	63 min
Jul 14, 4:28 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	PHI	Monmouth, Ocean	4 hr
Jul 14, 4:30 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OKX	Bergen, Passaic	32 min
Jul 14, 4:48 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Baltimore, Harford	42 min
Jul 14, 4:57 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Washington	33 min
Jul 14, 5:26 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Anne Arundel, Prince George's	49 min
Jul 14, 5:30 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	LWX	Baltimore	30 min
Jul 14, 5:31 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	PHI	Bucks, Lehigh, Northampton	3 hr
Jul 14, 5:55 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	LWX	Baltimore, Harford	35 min
Jul 14, 6:15 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	PHI	Hunterdon, Morris, Sussex, Warren	4 hr
Jul 14, 6:28 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PHI	Caroline, Cecil, Kent, Queen Anne's	62 min
Jul 14, 6:29 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	OKX	Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic	2 hr
Jul 14, 6:35 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	OKX	Rockland, Westchester	3 hr
Jul 14, 6:51 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Calvert, Saint Mary's	24 min
Jul 14, 6:51 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	CTP	Lancaster, York	3 hr
Jul 14, 7:03 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PHI	Kent, New Castle	42 min
Jul 14, 7:16 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PHI	Caroline, Queen Anne's, Talbot	74 min
Jul 14, 7:29 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PHI	New Castle	46 min
Jul 14, 7:37 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	OKX	Greater Bridgeport Planning Region	2 hr
Jul 14, 7:49 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PHI	Kent, Sussex	51 min
Jul 14, 7:53 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PHI	Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Salem	67 min
Jul 14, 8:19 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	PHI	Burlington, Camden, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth and 1 more	4 hr
Jul 14, 8:19 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	PHI	Burlington	26 min
Jul 14, 8:33 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	OKX	Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region	3 hr
Jul 14, 8:36 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PHI	Burlington, Monmouth, Ocean	54 min
Jul 14, 8:43 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	PHI	Burlington, Monmouth, Ocean	4 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Phillips Aaf/Abe, MD (KAPG), launched 12:00Z, 5.4 hours before the alert went out and 68 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 483 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -85 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 844 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 15 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 51 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 125 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 13, 8:46 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC		89 min
Jul 14, 4:39 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC		96 min
Jul 14, 6:59 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC		61 min
Jul 14, 1:06 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Kent, New Castle	84 min
Jul 14, 4:42 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allegany, Broome, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Chemung and 15 more	93 min
Jul 14, 12:50 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Bland, Botetourt, Campbell and 29 more	85 min
Jul 14, 1:10 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Lee, Scott, Wise, City of Norton	2 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Virginia, 2014 Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New Jersey, 2014 Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Pennsylvania, 2014 Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.