Alert archive / Michigan / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2014

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 321

June 18, 201418 counties in Indiana; 22 counties in Michigan; 11 counties in Ohio

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jun 18, 2014, 1:55 PM EDT for 18 counties in Indiana; 22 counties in Michigan; 11 counties in Ohio. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 18, 2014, 1:55 PM EDT (17:55 UTC)
Expired: Jun 18, 2014, 7:38 PM EDT
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 1.5 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

All 51 counties

Adams County, IN, Allen County, IN, DeKalb County, IN, Elkhart County, IN, Fulton County, IN, Huntington County, IN, Kosciusko County, IN, LaGrange County, IN, Marshall County, IN, Miami County, IN, Noble County, IN, Pulaski County, IN, Saint Joseph County, IN, Starke County, IN, Steuben County, IN, Wabash County, IN, Wells County, IN, Whitley County, IN, Barry County, MI, Branch County, MI, Calhoun County, MI, Cass County, MI, Clinton County, MI, Eaton County, MI, Genesee County, MI, Hillsdale County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Kalamazoo County, MI, Lapeer County, MI, Lenawee County, MI, Livingston County, MI, Macomb County, MI, Monroe County, MI, Oakland County, MI, Saint Clair County, MI, Saint Joseph County, MI, Shiawassee County, MI, Washtenaw County, MI, Wayne County, MI, Allen County, OH, Defiance County, OH, Fulton County, OH, Hancock County, OH, Henry County, OH, Lucas County, OH, Paulding County, OH, Putnam County, OH, Van Wert County, OH, Williams County, OH, Wood County, OH

The radar

The Detroit radar (KDTX), 84 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 10%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 2%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 10%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 70%

Warnings issued inside it

16 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 18, 2:06 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Clinton	39 min
Jun 18, 2:19 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Marshall	41 min
Jun 18, 2:32 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Shiawassee	58 min
Jun 18, 2:36 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Lenawee	54 min
Jun 18, 2:38 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Elkhart, Kosciusko, LaGrange, Noble	52 min
Jun 18, 2:47 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Kosciusko, Noble, Whitley	43 min
Jun 18, 2:59 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Livingston	61 min
Jun 18, 3:14 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Genesee	61 min
Jun 18, 3:30 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Lenawee, Monroe	75 min
Jun 18, 3:45 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CLE	Lucas, Ottawa, Wood	60 min
Jun 18, 3:46 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Washtenaw	59 min
Jun 18, 3:56 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	DeKalb, Steuben	49 min
Jun 18, 4:04 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Allen	41 min
Jun 18, 4:37 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Macomb, Saint Clair	53 min
Jun 18, 4:44 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CLE	Lucas, Wood	61 min
Jun 18, 5:45 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CLE	Hancock, Sandusky, Seneca, Wyandot	45 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 5.9 hours before the alert went out and 88 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 8 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -321 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 754 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 69 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -189 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -135 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 17, 11:13 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Lake, Porter	6 hr
Jun 18, 11:32 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allen, DeKalb, Elkhart, Kosciusko, LaGrange, LaPorte and 6 more	118 min
Jun 18, 3:56 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Blackford, Boone, Brown, Carroll, Clay, Clinton and 23 more	94 min
Jun 18, 4:32 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Blackford, Delaware, Jay, Randolph, Union, Wayne	88 min
Jun 18, 4:43 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Allen, DeKalb, Grant, Huntington, Miami and 3 more	2 hr
Jun 18, 6:30 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bartholomew, Dearborn, Decatur, Fayette, Franklin, Henry and 6 more	60 min
Jun 18, 7:00 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Dearborn, Fayette, Franklin, Ohio, Ripley, Switzerland and 2 more	5 hr
Jun 17, 11:36 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Iron	84 min
Jun 18, 1:59 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allegan, Barry, Ionia, Isabella, Kent, Lake and 10 more	91 min
Jun 18, 4:55 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Ashland, Ashtabula, Crawford, Cuyahoga, Erie, Geauga and 19 more	4 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Michigan, 2014 Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Indiana, 2014 Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Ohio, 2014 Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.