Alert archive / Ohio / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014

Mesoscale Discussion 1069

June 18, 20144 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 18, 2014, 6:30 PM EDT for 4 states. It was in force for 60 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 18, 2014, 6:30 PM EDT (22:30 UTC)
Expired
Jun 18, 2014, 7:30 PM EDT
In force
60 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
40%
All 83 counties

Bartholomew County, IN, Dearborn County, IN, Decatur County, IN, Fayette County, IN, Franklin County, IN, Henry County, IN, Randolph County, IN, Ripley County, IN, Rush County, IN, Shelby County, IN, Union County, IN, Wayne County, IN, Ashland County, OH, Athens County, OH, Auglaize County, OH, Belmont County, OH, Butler County, OH, Carroll County, OH, Champaign County, OH, Clark County, OH, Clermont County, OH, Clinton County, OH, Columbiana County, OH, Coshocton County, OH, Crawford County, OH, Darke County, OH, Delaware County, OH, Fairfield County, OH, Fayette County, OH, Franklin County, OH, Greene County, OH, Guernsey County, OH, Hamilton County, OH, Hardin County, OH, Harrison County, OH, Highland County, OH, Hocking County, OH, Holmes County, OH, Huron County, OH, Jefferson County, OH, Knox County, OH, Licking County, OH, Logan County, OH, Madison County, OH, Mahoning County, OH, Marion County, OH, Medina County, OH, Miami County, OH, Monroe County, OH, Montgomery County, OH, Morgan County, OH, Morrow County, OH, Muskingum County, OH, Noble County, OH, Perry County, OH, Pickaway County, OH, Portage County, OH, Preble County, OH, Richland County, OH, Ross County, OH, Shelby County, OH, Stark County, OH, Summit County, OH, Trumbull County, OH, Tuscarawas County, OH, Union County, OH, Warren County, OH, Wayne County, OH, Wyandot County, OH, Allegheny County, PA, Armstrong County, PA, Beaver County, PA, Butler County, PA, Clarion County, PA, Jefferson County, PA, Lawrence County, PA, Mercer County, PA, Venango County, PA, Washington County, PA, Brooke County, WV, Hancock County, WV, Marshall County, WV, Ohio County, WV

The radar

The Cleveland radar (KCLE), 132 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 10.5 hours before the alert went out and 152 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2014-06-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1489 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2014-06-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -23 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1489 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-36 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1071 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
18 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-23 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-52 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

292 
ACUS11 KWNS 182231
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182230 
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-182330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1069
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0530 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN PA...CNTRL/SRN OH...SERN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 182230Z - 182330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR PRIMARILY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND S/EWD INTO THE LATE EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR
NEW WW ISSUANCE FROM SERN IND ENEWD INTO WRN PA WILL BE CONTINGENT
ON TRENDS FOR INCREASING COLD-POOL STRENGTH AND ASSOCIATED MAGNITUDE
OF THE WIND THREAT.

DISCUSSION...A COLD POOL EMANATING OUT OF THE SRN END OF A
QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER CNTRL IND AND NWRN OH IS MERGING
WITH MORE DISCRETE TSTM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING TO THE S...ACROSS
S-CNTRL IND AND W-CNTRL OH...AND MORE RECENTLY ACROSS NWRN PA.
LATEST STORM REPORTS ARE CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVATIONAL AND RADAR
TRENDS INDICATING STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS...AS WELL AS
SMALL HAIL...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFT PULSES. TRENDS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE BOTH THE COLD POOL AND ACCOMPANYING CONVECTION
ARE NOT PARTICULARLY WELL-ORGANIZED...BUT DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG PER RAP OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS/. WITH 20-30 KT OF AMBIENT WLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW...THREAT FOR
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS SHOULD PERSIST...WITH WW
ISSUANCE PREDICATED ON INCREASING ORGANIZATIONAL TRENDS WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION.

..ROGERS/EDWARDS.. 06/18/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   41177880 40187973 39368181 38968447 39068610 39418615
            40208518 40958352 41338249 41617974 41177880

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 17, 11:13 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCLake, Porter6 hr
Jun 18, 11:32 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, DeKalb, Elkhart, Kosciusko, LaGrange, LaPorte and 6 more118 min
Jun 18, 1:55 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Allen, DeKalb, Elkhart, Fulton, Huntington and 12 more6 hr
Jun 18, 3:56 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlackford, Boone, Brown, Carroll, Clay, Clinton and 23 more94 min
Jun 18, 4:32 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlackford, Delaware, Jay, Randolph, Union, Wayne88 min
Jun 18, 4:43 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Allen, DeKalb, Grant, Huntington, Miami and 3 more2 hr
Jun 18, 7:00 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCDearborn, Fayette, Franklin, Ohio, Ripley, Switzerland and 2 more5 hr
Jun 18, 4:55 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAshland, Ashtabula, Crawford, Cuyahoga, Erie, Geauga and 19 more4 hr
Jun 17, 9:08 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBradford, Cameron, McKean, Potter, Tioga, Warren97 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2014Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2014Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2014Every mesoscale discussion in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.