Alert archive / Ohio / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014
Mesoscale Discussion 1069
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 18, 2014, 6:30 PM EDT for 4 states. It was in force for 60 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 18, 2014, 6:30 PM EDT (22:30 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 18, 2014, 7:30 PM EDT
- In force
- 60 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
All 83 counties
Bartholomew County, IN, Dearborn County, IN, Decatur County, IN, Fayette County, IN, Franklin County, IN, Henry County, IN, Randolph County, IN, Ripley County, IN, Rush County, IN, Shelby County, IN, Union County, IN, Wayne County, IN, Ashland County, OH, Athens County, OH, Auglaize County, OH, Belmont County, OH, Butler County, OH, Carroll County, OH, Champaign County, OH, Clark County, OH, Clermont County, OH, Clinton County, OH, Columbiana County, OH, Coshocton County, OH, Crawford County, OH, Darke County, OH, Delaware County, OH, Fairfield County, OH, Fayette County, OH, Franklin County, OH, Greene County, OH, Guernsey County, OH, Hamilton County, OH, Hardin County, OH, Harrison County, OH, Highland County, OH, Hocking County, OH, Holmes County, OH, Huron County, OH, Jefferson County, OH, Knox County, OH, Licking County, OH, Logan County, OH, Madison County, OH, Mahoning County, OH, Marion County, OH, Medina County, OH, Miami County, OH, Monroe County, OH, Montgomery County, OH, Morgan County, OH, Morrow County, OH, Muskingum County, OH, Noble County, OH, Perry County, OH, Pickaway County, OH, Portage County, OH, Preble County, OH, Richland County, OH, Ross County, OH, Shelby County, OH, Stark County, OH, Summit County, OH, Trumbull County, OH, Tuscarawas County, OH, Union County, OH, Warren County, OH, Wayne County, OH, Wyandot County, OH, Allegheny County, PA, Armstrong County, PA, Beaver County, PA, Butler County, PA, Clarion County, PA, Jefferson County, PA, Lawrence County, PA, Mercer County, PA, Venango County, PA, Washington County, PA, Brooke County, WV, Hancock County, WV, Marshall County, WV, Ohio County, WV
The radar
The Cleveland radar (KCLE), 132 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 10.5 hours before the alert went out and 152 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1489 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -36 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1071 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 18 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -23 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -52 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.7
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
292
ACUS11 KWNS 182231
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182230
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-182330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1069
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0530 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN PA...CNTRL/SRN OH...SERN IND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 182230Z - 182330Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THREAT FOR PRIMARILY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND S/EWD INTO THE LATE EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR
NEW WW ISSUANCE FROM SERN IND ENEWD INTO WRN PA WILL BE CONTINGENT
ON TRENDS FOR INCREASING COLD-POOL STRENGTH AND ASSOCIATED MAGNITUDE
OF THE WIND THREAT.
DISCUSSION...A COLD POOL EMANATING OUT OF THE SRN END OF A
QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER CNTRL IND AND NWRN OH IS MERGING
WITH MORE DISCRETE TSTM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING TO THE S...ACROSS
S-CNTRL IND AND W-CNTRL OH...AND MORE RECENTLY ACROSS NWRN PA.
LATEST STORM REPORTS ARE CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVATIONAL AND RADAR
TRENDS INDICATING STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS...AS WELL AS
SMALL HAIL...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFT PULSES. TRENDS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE BOTH THE COLD POOL AND ACCOMPANYING CONVECTION
ARE NOT PARTICULARLY WELL-ORGANIZED...BUT DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG PER RAP OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS/. WITH 20-30 KT OF AMBIENT WLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW...THREAT FOR
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS SHOULD PERSIST...WITH WW
ISSUANCE PREDICATED ON INCREASING ORGANIZATIONAL TRENDS WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION.
..ROGERS/EDWARDS.. 06/18/2014
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...
LAT...LON 41177880 40187973 39368181 38968447 39068610 39418615
40208518 40958352 41338249 41617974 41177880SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 17, 11:13 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Lake, Porter | 6 hr |
| Jun 18, 11:32 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, DeKalb, Elkhart, Kosciusko, LaGrange, LaPorte and 6 more | 118 min |
| Jun 18, 1:55 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adams, Allen, DeKalb, Elkhart, Fulton, Huntington and 12 more | 6 hr |
| Jun 18, 3:56 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Blackford, Boone, Brown, Carroll, Clay, Clinton and 23 more | 94 min |
| Jun 18, 4:32 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Blackford, Delaware, Jay, Randolph, Union, Wayne | 88 min |
| Jun 18, 4:43 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Allen, DeKalb, Grant, Huntington, Miami and 3 more | 2 hr |
| Jun 18, 7:00 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Dearborn, Fayette, Franklin, Ohio, Ripley, Switzerland and 2 more | 5 hr |
| Jun 18, 4:55 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Ashland, Ashtabula, Crawford, Cuyahoga, Erie, Geauga and 19 more | 4 hr |
| Jun 17, 9:08 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bradford, Cameron, McKean, Potter, Tioga, Warren | 97 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2014Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2014Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2014Every mesoscale discussion in 2014
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.