Alert archive / Virginia / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2014
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 157
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at May 15, 2014, 11:56 AM EDT for 4 states. It was in force for 8 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 15, 2014, 11:56 AM EDT (15:56 UTC)
- Expired
- May 15, 2014, 8:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 8 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 0.5 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 113 counties
Frederick County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Washington County, MD, Alamance County, NC, Beaufort County, NC, Bertie County, NC, Bladen County, NC, Brunswick County, NC, Carteret County, NC, Caswell County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Columbus County, NC, Craven County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Duplin County, NC, Durham County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Granville County, NC, Greene County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hertford County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Jones County, NC, Lee County, NC, Lenoir County, NC, Martin County, NC, Moore County, NC, Nash County, NC, New Hanover County, NC, Northampton County, NC, Onslow County, NC, Orange County, NC, Pamlico County, NC, Pender County, NC, Person County, NC, Pitt County, NC, Robeson County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC, Albemarle County, VA, Amelia County, VA, Amherst County, VA, Appomattox County, VA, Augusta County, VA, Brunswick County, VA, Buckingham County, VA, Campbell County, VA, Caroline County, VA, Charlotte County, VA, Chesterfield County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Charlottesville, VA, City of Colonial Heights, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Emporia, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Harrisonburg, VA, City of Lynchburg, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, City of Petersburg, VA, City of Richmond, VA, City of Staunton, VA, City of Waynesboro, VA, City of Winchester, VA, Clarke County, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Cumberland County, VA, Dinwiddie County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Fluvanna County, VA, Frederick County, VA, Goochland County, VA, Greene County, VA, Greensville County, VA, Halifax County, VA, Hanover County, VA, Henrico County, VA, Loudoun County, VA, Louisa County, VA, Lunenburg County, VA, Madison County, VA, Mecklenburg County, VA, Nelson County, VA, Nottoway County, VA, Orange County, VA, Page County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA, Powhatan County, VA, Prince Edward County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Rockingham County, VA, Shenandoah County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Warren County, VA, Berkeley County, WV, Hampshire County, WV, Hardy County, WV, Jefferson County, WV, Morgan County, WV
The radar
The Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 139 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 20%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 2%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 40%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 10%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 10%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 5%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 70%
Warnings issued inside it
14 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 1:28 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Durham, Granville, Wake | 47 min |
| May 15, 3:19 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | RAH | Wake | 3 hr |
| May 15, 3:34 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Culpeper, Madison, Orange, Page, Rappahannock, Spotsylvania | 41 min |
| May 15, 4:04 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Clarke, Culpeper, Fauquier, Frederick, Loudoun, Prince William and 3 more | 41 min |
| May 15, 4:50 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Fairfax, Prince William, City of Fairfax, City of Manassas Park | 40 min |
| May 15, 5:00 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Howard, Montgomery | 45 min |
| May 15, 5:54 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Chatham, Durham, Granville, Orange | 66 min |
| May 15, 6:06 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | RAH | Durham | 24 min |
| May 15, 6:35 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | RAH | Orange | 3 hr |
| May 15, 6:49 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Granville, Person | 56 min |
| May 15, 6:54 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | RAH | Granville, Person | 36 min |
| May 15, 7:25 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Charlotte, Halifax | 65 min |
| May 15, 7:46 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | ILM | Brunswick, Columbus | 29 min |
| May 15, 7:51 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | RNK | Halifax | 3 hr |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 3.9 hours before the alert went out and 105 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 410 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 458 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 54 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 311 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 332 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.7
- Supercell composite
- 3.4
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 3:22 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegany, Frederick, Montgomery, Washington | 53 min |
| May 15, 5:33 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Caroline, Carroll, Cecil and 6 more | 117 min |
| May 15, 6:24 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Frederick, Montgomery, Washington | 96 min |
| May 15, 12:14 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Buncombe, Haywood, Henderson, Jackson, Macon, Madison and 4 more | 91 min |
| May 15, 8:29 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alamance, Anson, Bladen, Brunswick, Cabarrus, Caswell and 33 more | 2 hr |
| May 15, 6:55 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaufort, Berkeley, Calhoun, Charleston, Chesterfield, Clarendon and 13 more | 2 hr |
| May 14, 9:33 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brooke, Hancock, Marshall, Ohio | 87 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Virginia, 2014Severe Thunderstorm Watches in North Carolina, 2014Severe Thunderstorm Watches in West Virginia, 2014Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2014
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.