Mesoscale Discussion 902

Issued

Jun 8, 2014, 2:43 PM CDT (19:43 UTC)

Expired

Jun 8, 2014, 5:15 PM CDT

In force

3 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

40%

The San Angelo radar (KSJT), 91 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Tornado Watch 264Jun 8, 5:10 PM CDT

441 
ACUS11 KWNS 081943
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081943 
TXZ000-NMZ000-082215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0902
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT SUN JUN 08 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN/CNTRL TX...FAR SERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 081943Z - 082215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
SVR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THIS MAY
WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A WW.

DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL SELYS CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF SWRN TX AND FAR SERN NM...WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S TO THE S OF ONGOING ELEVATED
CONVECTION COVERING THE TX S PLAINS/NRN PERMIAN BASIN. THE AIR MASS
S OF THIS CONVECTION IS EXPERIENCING MODEST DESTABILIZATION OWING TO
POCKETS OF INSOLATION SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. THE
GENERALLY FLAT NATURE OF THE CU FIELD PER VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS
BOUNDARY-LAYER STATIC STABILITY REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...RECENT SIGNS OF CLEARING/MIXING OF LOW CLOUDS HAS BEEN
NOTED FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN TO THE STOCKTON PLATEAU...WITH
INSOLATION-ENHANCED SFC HEATING SUPPORTING AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE. STRONGER BUOYANCY EXISTS AT THE ERN EDGE OF 8-9-C/KM
SFC-3-KM LAPSE RATES EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE TX TRANS-PECOS...WITH
INTENSE CONVECTION RECENTLY HAVING DEVELOPED INVOF THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS.

DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...CONTINUED SFC HEATING WILL BOLSTER
SOLENOIDS OVER THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ELEVATED
CONVECTION...WHILE ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP EWD FROM TERRAIN-DRIVEN
CIRCULATIONS. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 40-55 KT WILL FAVOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. STORMS COULD
EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS SPREADING EWD. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS
ENHANCING SRH WILL SUPPORT SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL AS WELL.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR
ASCENT...THE COVERAGE OF THE SVR RISK MAY BE SUPPRESSED...ALTHOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL/CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/08/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   29859944 29530206 30430374 31580416 32580293 32039982
            31399864 29859944

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2014Every mesoscale discussion in 2014

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.