Alert archive / West Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014
Mesoscale Discussion 813
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 4, 2014, 12:11 PM EDT for 19 counties in Kentucky; 4 counties in Ohio; 25 counties in West Virginia. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 4, 2014, 12:11 PM EDT (16:11 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 4, 2014, 2:15 PM EDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
All 48 counties
Bath County, KY, Boyd County, KY, Carter County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Fleming County, KY, Floyd County, KY, Greenup County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Lawrence County, KY, Lewis County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, Martin County, KY, Mason County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Montgomery County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Pike County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Gallia County, OH, Jackson County, OH, Lawrence County, OH, Scioto County, OH, Boone County, WV, Braxton County, WV, Cabell County, WV, Calhoun County, WV, Clay County, WV, Fayette County, WV, Gilmer County, WV, Greenbrier County, WV, Jackson County, WV, Kanawha County, WV, Lewis County, WV, Lincoln County, WV, Logan County, WV, Mason County, WV, McDowell County, WV, Mingo County, WV, Nicholas County, WV, Putnam County, WV, Raleigh County, WV, Roane County, WV, Summers County, WV, Upshur County, WV, Wayne County, WV, Webster County, WV, Wyoming County, WV
The radar
The Charleston,WV radar (KRLX), 29 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 4.2 hours before the alert went out and 190 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -114 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1323 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 41 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 77 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 100 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.2
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
212
ACUS11 KWNS 041611
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041611
WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-041815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0813
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CDT WED JUN 04 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN KY AND ADJACENT SRN OHIO INTO WEST
VIRGINIA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 041611Z - 041815Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...WHILE NOT YET CERTAIN...DUE TO A SOMEWHAT MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MAY EVENTUALLY INCREASE AND ORGANIZE SUFFICIENTLY TO
REQUIRE A WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY...HAS BEEN DEVELOPING EASTWARD...ROUGHLY ALONG A
LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
ADJACENT SOUTHERN OHIO. THIS HAS BEEN AIDED BY MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED
WITH 30-40 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...TO THE SOUTH OF A REMNANT
CONVECTIVELY GENERATED CYCLONIC VORTEX MIGRATING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR ARE GENERALLY WEAK AHEAD OF THIS
ACTIVITY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...BUT INSOLATION AND
MOISTENING BENEATH MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ADVECTING
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. AS INHIBITION GRADUALLY WEAKENS FOR
BOUNDARY-LAYER BASED PARCELS CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000
J/KG...FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION IS
PROBABLE ACROSS NORTHEAST KENTUCKY INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA.
GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG COLD POOL COULD EVENTUALLY FORM TO SUPPORT AN
INCREASING RISK FOR STRONG SURFACE GUSTS WITH ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS
ACROSS CHARLESTON AND ADJACENT AREAS OF WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE
18-20Z TIME FRAME. WHILE PEAK GUSTS SEEM LIKELY TO REMAIN MOSTLY
BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA...THEY COULD NEVERTHELESS STILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO DOWN TREES/BRANCHES AND POWER LINES. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...PARTICULARLY WITH EARLY ACTIVITY
NEAR THE FRONT...BUT THIS THREAT...IN GENERAL...SEEMS FAIRLY LOW.
..KERR/CARBIN.. 06/04/2014
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...
LAT...LON 39038257 38988133 39048061 39068029 38727986 37778038
37368143 37518298 38038391 38408409 38738373 39038257SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 4, 1:20 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Ballard, Barren, Bourbon, Boyle, Breckinridge and 45 more | 115 min |
| Jun 4, 2:51 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Adair, Anderson, Bath, Bell, Boone, Bourbon and 73 more | 10 hr |
| Jun 4, 3:21 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Allen, Ballard, Barren, Breckinridge, Bullitt, Butler and 35 more | 6 hr |
| Jun 4, 6:34 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bath, Bourbon, Boyd, Breathitt, Carter, Clark and 36 more | 116 min |
| Jun 4, 7:57 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Ballard, Barren, Butler, Caldwell, Calloway and 22 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2014Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2014Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2014Every mesoscale discussion in 2014
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.