Mesoscale Discussion 652

Issued

May 22, 2014, 3:53 AM EDT (07:53 UTC)

Expired

May 22, 2014, 5:30 AM EDT

In force

97 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

20%

The Louisville radar (KLVX), 30 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

977 
ACUS11 KWNS 220753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220753 
KYZ000-INZ000-220930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0652
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 AM CDT THU MAY 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN INDIANA INTO CNTRL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 220753Z - 220930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WW 169 IS BEING EXTENDING LOCALLY IN TIME AND AREA ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.  THE ISSUANCE
OF A NEW WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN BY DAYBREAK.

DISCUSSION...STRONGEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ON THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF MID/UPPER RIDGING...FLATTENED BY LARGER-SCALE
UPPER TROUGHING NOW DIGGING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO
VALLEY REGION.  THIS IS WHERE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SIZABLE
CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF 40-50 KT NORTHWESTERLY 500 MB
FLOW...CURRENTLY FOCUSED NORTH OF EVANSVILLE IN INTO THE LOUISVILLE
KY AREA.  

THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY APPEARS ROOTED ABOVE A BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
MASS IMPACTED CONSIDERABLY BY EARLIER CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...AND THE
TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY ADVANCE INTO A
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR ENVIRONMENT...TOWARD THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  HOWEVER...THE RISK FOR SEVERE
HAIL...AND PERHAPS LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...MAY CONTINUE IN
STRONGER STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.  THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE BEEN
SUGGESTIVE THAT MID/UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY DAYBREAK...AND THIS
SEEMS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING OF LINGERING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.

..KERR/CARBIN.. 05/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   38618740 38698676 38298533 38158399 37948318 36998395
            36948526 38138728 38618740

Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2014Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2014Every mesoscale discussion in 2014

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.