Mesoscale Discussion 1981

Issued

Dec 23, 2014, 3:45 AM CST (09:45 UTC)

Expired

Dec 23, 2014, 5:45 AM CST

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

20%

Counties Baldwin County, AL, Bay County, FL, Escambia County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Okaloosa County, FL, Santa Rosa County, FL, Walton County, FL

The Eglin Afb radar (KEVX), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

220 
ACUS11 KWNS 230946
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230945 
FLZ000-ALZ000-231145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1981
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AND
VICINITY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 230945Z - 231145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE NRN GULF...SPREADING NWD INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WITH TIME.  IN PARTICULAR...THE WRN
FL PANHANDLE VICINITY WILL BE AFFECTED BY A FEW STRONGER/NEWD-MOVING
CELLS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS -- POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A
VERY LOW-END SEVERE/BRIEF TORNADO RISK.

DISCUSSION...LATEST WV IMAGERY REVEALS STEADILY INCREASING ASCENT
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT SERN U.S. OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD
ACROSS TX ATTM -- INTO THE BASE OF THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS.  WITH THIS FEATURE CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK WRN-GULF
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN BOUNDARY-LAYER SLYS
WITHIN A DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR...A RETURN OF HIGHER THETA-E GULF
AIR /UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS/ IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION.  

WITH A PERSISTENT WEDGE FRONT ACROSS AL SEPARATING COOL INLAND AIR
FROM THE WARM/MOIST GULF AIR...EXPECT ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF THE
HIGHER THETA-E GULF AIR TO YIELD AN INCREASE IN ELEVATED CONVECTION
-- AND AS A RESULT A REINFORCEMENT OF THE COOL/STABLE INLAND
BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE SHORT TERM.  HOWEVER...S AND W OF THE WEDGE
FRONT...LESS ELEVATED -- AND EVENTUALLY NEARLY SURFACE-BASED STORMS
WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THOUGH
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT 500 TO 1000 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE
CAPE...WHICH -- AIDED BY FAVORABLY INCREASING/VEERING FLOW WITH
HEIGHT -- WILL PERMIT A FEW STRONGER/ROTATING CELLS TO EVOLVE FROM
TIME TO TIME.

INDEED...A FEW STORMS OVER THE NRN GULF S OF MOB/PNS/VPS HAVE SHOWN
OCCASIONAL/WEAK CIRCULATIONS PER AREA WSR-88D LOOPS...AND EXPECT
THESE STORMS TO BEGIN SPREADING INLAND OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. 
WHILE OVERALL SEVERE RISK SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN THE SHORT TERM --
THUS KEEPING PROBABILITY OF WW ISSUANCE CORRESPONDINGLY LOW...A
LOW-END SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE /INCLUDING POTENTIAL
FOR A BRIEF TORNADO -- PARTICULARLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS FROM ROUGHLY
PNS TO PAM WHERE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL
MESOCYCLONE POTENTIAL/.

..GOSS/EDWARDS.. 12/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   30258815 30868793 30928714 30848654 30598564 29848495
            29438488 29368533 29488649 29858788 30258815

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2014Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2014Every mesoscale discussion in 2014

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.