Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014
Mesoscale Discussion 1649
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 31, 2014, 5:17 PM CDT for 18 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 58 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 31, 2014, 5:17 PM CDT (22:17 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 31, 2014, 6:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 58 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 80%
Counties Barton County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Ellsworth County, KS, Ford County, KS, Gray County, KS, Harvey County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Kiowa County, KS, McPherson County, KS, Ness County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Pratt County, KS, Reno County, KS, Rice County, KS, Rush County, KS, Saline County, KS, Stafford County, KS
The radar
The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 72 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 66 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 238 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -355 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2269 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 26 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 118 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 403 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
683
ACUS11 KWNS 312218
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312217
KSZ000-312315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1649
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0517 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SWRN INTO CNTRL/S CNTRL KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 312217Z - 312315Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH COULD BECOME NECESSARY
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SEVERE WIND GUSTS LIKELY WILL BECOME
THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH ANY SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 00-03Z.
DISCUSSION...ATTEMPTS AT SUSTAINED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
NOW APPEAR UNDERWAY ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCING
COLD FRONT...FROM NEAR RUSSELL WEST SOUTHWESTWARD TO A WEAK SURFACE
LOW WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE DRYLINE EAST OF GARDEN CITY.
STRONG/DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND MIXING HAS YIELDED MODERATELY
LARGE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG...BUT THIS IS GENERALLY BENEATH
VERY WARM AND STRONGLY CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR ADVECTING
EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ON THE SOUTHERNMOST FRINGE OF A
SEASONABLY STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET NOW TURNING EAST OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES...IT DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE THAT FORCING COULD
WEAKEN CAPPING SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW INTENSIFYING STORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING. IF THIS OCCURS...SEVERE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE
INITIALLY. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR VERY FAVORABLE
FOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS...AND STRONG COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WHICH COULD
SUPPORT UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH. AIDED BY SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENING /40-50+ KT AT 850 MB/...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS SHOULD BECOME THE MORE PROMINENT THREAT DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.
..KERR/EDWARDS.. 08/31/2014
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC...
LAT...LON 38320058 38769932 38939718 37809724 37129947 37520057
38320058SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2:20 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cloud, Jewell, Marshall, Mitchell, Osborne, Phillips and 4 more | 85 min |
| Aug 31, 3:31 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Clay, Cloud, Jewell, Marshall, Mitchell, Osborne and 6 more | 5 hr |
| Aug 31, 3:46 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Finney, Gray, Haskell, Kearny, Meade, Seward | 119 min |
| Aug 31, 5:34 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Anderson, Barton, Brown, Chase, Clark, Coffey and 33 more | 9 hr |
| Aug 31, 6:07 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atchison, Brown, Clay, Doniphan, Jackson, Marshall and 3 more | 83 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2014Every mesoscale discussion in 2014
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.