Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
314 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

The main concern this afternoon and evening is the potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms, some producing large hail, damaging
winds, and isolated tornadoes. A cold front was located along a line
from near Fort Stockton, to Big Spring, then into Haskell and
Throckmorton counties. A very unstable environment is evident ahead
of the front, across much of the Concho Valley, Heartland, and
Northwest Hill Country. In addition, steep lapse rates and 0-6 KM
Bulk Shear values of 30 to 40 knots are currently being experienced
across these areas. As the front slowly moves south, showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop late this afternoon, with the
best chance south and east of a Brownwood, to San Angelo, to Ozona
line. Given the aforementioned factors, any storms that do develop
will have the potential to become strong to severe, with large hail,
damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes being the main hazards.
Showers and thunderstorms should slowly shift south and east this
evening, with the majority of convection moving south of the area
during the early morning hours Friday.

On Friday, the remnant cold front will be located across the
Northwest Hill Country/Heartland. This may be the focus for isolated
showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the morning hours, and this
is reflected in the grids. Models indicate an upper level shortwave
trough moving into West Texas tomorrow afternoon, resulting in
showers and thunderstorms. The NAM continues to be the most
aggressive in moving this convection into at least the western third
of the area during the late afternoon hours, and I have expanded
PoPs into much of the western Concho Valley, western Big Country,
and Crockett county. Again, a few of these storms could be strong to
severe. Highs on Friday will be cooler, generally in the upper 80s
to lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)

West Central Texas will be on the northern periphery of the
subtropical ridge this weekend into the middle of next week.
Through the weekend, the upper ridge will be centered over Mexico
but is expected to build northeast across the southeastern states
late this weekend into early next week, as an upper level trough
develops across the western CONUS. The airmass across West Central
Texas will remain moist and unstable through the period, with
periodic weak disturbances moving across the area through early next
week. POPs were increased to 30 percent across western portions of
the Concho Valley and Crockett county Friday evening. Some of the
storms may be severe with large hail and damaging winds the main
threat. Thunderstorms may also develop west of the area again
Saturday afternoon with some of this activity making into far
western/southwestern counties by evening. Not a clear enough signal
in the models to warrant mentionable POP's Saturday through early
next week but did include isolated thunder west of a Sterling city
to Ozona line for Saturday evening. If storms develop, they will
again have the potential to become severe given the unstable airmass
in place.

The medium range models continue to be at odds with each other by
the middle of next week, with the ECMWF maintaining a western US
trough and eastern ridge, while the GFS builds the ridge across
the Rockies with troughing across the east. The ECMWF solution
would favor diurnally driven convection along the dryline to our
west, while the GFS would result in hot and dry conditions as the
ridge builds. For now, will maintain a dry forecast Sunday through
Thursday. Temperatures will remain warm through the period, with
afternoon highs in the lower to middle 90s and lows in the lower
70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 69  87  71  95  71 /  20  10  10  10  10
San Angelo 	 70  91  72  96  71 /  30  10  20  10  10
Junction 	 72  92  72  95  71 /  40  20  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

Daniels/JW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
249 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-132000-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
249 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
BROWNWOOD...TO SAN ANGELO...TO OZONA LINE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A SWEETWATER...TO SAN ANGELO...TO
SONORA LINE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DANGEROUS CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
557 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     HAIL             2 NE ABILENE            32.47N  99.71W
06/12/2014  E2.75 INCH       TAYLOR             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            BASEBALL SIZE HAIL NEAR ABILENE CHRISTIAN UNIVERSITY
            CAMPUS

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1400255

MJ