Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
314 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

The main concern this afternoon and evening is the potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms, some producing large hail, damaging
winds, and isolated tornadoes. A cold front was located along a line
from near Fort Stockton, to Big Spring, then into Haskell and
Throckmorton counties. A very unstable environment is evident ahead
of the front, across much of the Concho Valley, Heartland, and
Northwest Hill Country. In addition, steep lapse rates and 0-6 KM
Bulk Shear values of 30 to 40 knots are currently being experienced
across these areas. As the front slowly moves south, showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop late this afternoon, with the
best chance south and east of a Brownwood, to San Angelo, to Ozona
line. Given the aforementioned factors, any storms that do develop
will have the potential to become strong to severe, with large hail,
damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes being the main hazards.
Showers and thunderstorms should slowly shift south and east this
evening, with the majority of convection moving south of the area
during the early morning hours Friday.

On Friday, the remnant cold front will be located across the
Northwest Hill Country/Heartland. This may be the focus for isolated
showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the morning hours, and this
is reflected in the grids. Models indicate an upper level shortwave
trough moving into West Texas tomorrow afternoon, resulting in
showers and thunderstorms. The NAM continues to be the most
aggressive in moving this convection into at least the western third
of the area during the late afternoon hours, and I have expanded
PoPs into much of the western Concho Valley, western Big Country,
and Crockett county. Again, a few of these storms could be strong to
severe. Highs on Friday will be cooler, generally in the upper 80s
to lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)

West Central Texas will be on the northern periphery of the
subtropical ridge this weekend into the middle of next week.
Through the weekend, the upper ridge will be centered over Mexico
but is expected to build northeast across the southeastern states
late this weekend into early next week, as an upper level trough
develops across the western CONUS. The airmass across West Central
Texas will remain moist and unstable through the period, with
periodic weak disturbances moving across the area through early next
week. POPs were increased to 30 percent across western portions of
the Concho Valley and Crockett county Friday evening. Some of the
storms may be severe with large hail and damaging winds the main
threat. Thunderstorms may also develop west of the area again
Saturday afternoon with some of this activity making into far
western/southwestern counties by evening. Not a clear enough signal
in the models to warrant mentionable POP's Saturday through early
next week but did include isolated thunder west of a Sterling city
to Ozona line for Saturday evening. If storms develop, they will
again have the potential to become severe given the unstable airmass
in place.

The medium range models continue to be at odds with each other by
the middle of next week, with the ECMWF maintaining a western US
trough and eastern ridge, while the GFS builds the ridge across
the Rockies with troughing across the east. The ECMWF solution
would favor diurnally driven convection along the dryline to our
west, while the GFS would result in hot and dry conditions as the
ridge builds. For now, will maintain a dry forecast Sunday through
Thursday. Temperatures will remain warm through the period, with
afternoon highs in the lower to middle 90s and lows in the lower
70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 69  87  71  95  71 /  20  10  10  10  10
San Angelo 	 70  91  72  96  71 /  30  10  20  10  10
Junction 	 72  92  72  95  71 /  40  20  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

Daniels/JW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
249 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-132000-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
249 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
BROWNWOOD...TO SAN ANGELO...TO OZONA LINE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A SWEETWATER...TO SAN ANGELO...TO
SONORA LINE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DANGEROUS CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
133 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E WALL                31.37N 100.29W
06/11/2014  M64 MPH          TOM GREEN          TX   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1400247

DOLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
213 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     TORNADO          4 NE SAN ANGELO         31.48N 100.39W
06/11/2014                   TOM GREEN          TX   NWS STORM SURVEY

            EF0 TORNADO DAMAGE SURVEYED IN THE PAULANN AREA OF
            NORTH SAN ANGELO. MINOR DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED TO
            FENCES...ROOF COVERINGS...TREES...AND ROAD SIGNS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1400248

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
215 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0824 PM     TORNADO          4 ESE SAN ANGELO        31.42N 100.39W
06/11/2014                   TOM GREEN          TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            A TORNADO WAS OBSERVED NORTH OF FM 388 AND JUST WEST OF
            LOOP 306. THE TORNADO MOVED EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOOP
            306 BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE NWS SURVEY HAS RATED THIS
            TORNADO AS EF0.

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER SJT1400246

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
332 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 NW SAN ANGELO         31.54N 100.51W
06/11/2014  M74 MPH          TOM GREEN          TX   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1400249

DOLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
333 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     TSTM WND GST     16 NNW STERLING CITY    32.05N 101.09W
06/11/2014  E60 MPH          STERLING           TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

0658 PM     TSTM WND GST     SWEETWATER              32.47N 100.41W
06/11/2014  E60 MPH          NOLAN              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0705 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROTAN                   32.85N 100.47W
06/11/2014                   FISHER             TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            PART OF A METAL ROOF WAS PEELED OFF THE BAPTIST CHURCH.
            NUMEROUS TREES WERE UPROOTED AND POWER LINES WERE DOWN
            IN TOWN.

0705 PM     HAIL             ROTAN                   32.85N 100.47W
06/11/2014  E1.00 INCH       FISHER             TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

0735 PM     HAIL             1 SSE HAMLIN            32.87N 100.12W
06/11/2014  E1.00 INCH       JONES              TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

0735 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSE HAMLIN            32.87N 100.12W
06/11/2014  E60 MPH          JONES              TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

0757 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NW CARLSBAD           31.61N 100.64W
06/11/2014  E75 MPH          TOM GREEN          TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

0800 PM     HAIL             STAMFORD                32.94N  99.80W
06/11/2014  E1.75 INCH       JONES              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT
            40 TO 50 MPH.

0805 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GRAPE CREEK             31.58N 100.55W
06/11/2014                   TOM GREEN          TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            BUILDING COLLAPSED DUE TO DAMAGING WINDS.

0810 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N SAN ANGELO          31.49N 100.45W
06/11/2014                   TOM GREEN          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SIGNIFICANT ROOF DAMAGE REPORTD NEAR THE SAN ANGELO
            COLISEUM

0810 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SE GRAPE CREEK        31.54N 100.49W
06/11/2014                   TOM GREEN          TX   PUBLIC

            WIDESPREAD DAMAGE AT WELL YARD.

0810 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W SAN ANGELO          31.45N 100.52W
06/11/2014                   TOM GREEN          TX   PUBLIC

            MINOR ROOF DAMAGE REPORTED IN THE HIGHLAND RANGE
            ADDITION.

0815 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 NW SAN ANGELO         31.54N 100.51W
06/11/2014  M74 MPH          TOM GREEN          TX   MESONET

0820 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SAN ANGELO              31.45N 100.45W
06/11/2014                   TOM GREEN          TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            WIDESPREAD DAMAGE TO UTILITY POLES... TREES...AND ROOFS
            ACROSS THE CITY.

0820 PM     HAIL             LUEDERS                 32.80N  99.62W
06/11/2014  E1.75 INCH       JONES              TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0820 PM     TORNADO          4 NE SAN ANGELO         31.48N 100.39W
06/11/2014                   TOM GREEN          TX   NWS STORM SURVEY

            EF0 TORNADO DAMAGE SURVEYED IN THE PAULANN AREA OF
            NORTH SAN ANGELO. MINOR DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED TO
            FENCES...ROOF COVERINGS...TREES...AND ROAD SIGNS.

0824 PM     TORNADO          4 ESE SAN ANGELO        31.42N 100.39W
06/11/2014                   TOM GREEN          TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            A TORNADO WAS OBSERVED NORTH OF FM 388 AND JUST WEST OF
            LOOP 306. THE TORNADO MOVED EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOOP
            306 BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE NWS SURVEY HAS RATED THIS
            TORNADO AS EF0.

0826 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 E SAN ANGELO          31.44N 100.39W
06/11/2014  M73 MPH          TOM GREEN          TX   PUBLIC

            HOME WEATHER STATION MEASURED 73 MPH NEAR GOODFELLOW
            AFB.

0830 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NW WALL               31.41N 100.37W
06/11/2014                   TOM GREEN          TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            METAL ROOF PEELED BACK ON A HOME NEAR BLUMENTRITT ROAD
            AND LOOP 306.

0845 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E WALL                31.37N 100.29W
06/11/2014  M64 MPH          TOM GREEN          TX   MESONET

0900 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 ENE WALL              31.39N 100.26W
06/11/2014  E75 MPH          TOM GREEN          TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

0900 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ENE WALL              31.39N 100.26W
06/11/2014                   TOM GREEN          TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            METAL ROOF PEELED BACK. INSULATION IN THE FIELDS.
            NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1400244 SJT1400239 SJT1400240 SJT1400241 SJT1400229
SJT1400230 SJT1400228 SJT1400231 SJT1400232 SJT1400233 SJT1400234
SJT1400235 SJT1400249 SJT1400236 SJT1400245 SJT1400248 SJT1400246
SJT1400237 SJT1400238 SJT1400247 SJT1400242 SJT1400243

DOLL

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