Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
643 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

.AVIATION...
STRONG CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WIND GUSTS
OF AROUND 55-60 MPH WITH HAIL LARGER THAN A HALF INCH IN THE
STRONGER STORMS. CONVECTION WILL COME TO AN END OVERNIGHT...WITH
LOW CIGS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND SUNRISE...WITH GUSTY NNWLY WINDS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN TEXAS WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
CURVING INTO DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTH INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWEST
FROM THE NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND DOWN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OVER SOUTH TEXAS. OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES...THE SKIES CLEARED ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE MID 70/S TO THE LOWER 80/S WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION. THE WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FOR THE REST OF OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA. HAVE EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 37 SOUTH
TO INCLUDE OUR REMAINING COUNTIES OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
THAT WERE NOT IN THE PREVIOUS WATCH ISSUANCE'S. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NOW ONGOING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL NEAR GOLF BALL SIZE ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
HAVE BEEN MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST
AND MOVING OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WARM SECTIONS AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...HELPING THE THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING THE UPPER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND INTO SOUTH
TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST SPREADING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE
LOW EAST PROVIDING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE
HAIL IS GOING TO OCCUR FOR MANY AREAS AND PROTECTION FOR VEHICLES
AND OTHER ITEMS MAY NEED TO BE ATTEMPTED UNDER COVER INTO THE EVENING.
BY LATE TONIGHT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENDING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RIDGING
ALOFT AND ON THE SURFACE WILL MOVE INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION
PROVIDING FOR A DRY PERIOD INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK WHEN
ANOTHER PASSING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHIFTS EAST
AND MAY TRAIL ENOUGH ENERGY TO PROVIDE FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR
THE MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK AS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER CALIFORNIA
AND SENDS A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE RESULTING SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO PROVIDE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND A DRY PERIOD WILL RETURN AS RIDGING ALOFT AND ON
THE SURFACE RETURN TO THE AREA. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  73  45  75  49 /  60   0   0   0   0
MLU  55  71  43  73  48 /  70   0   0   0   0
DEQ  46  71  38  74  47 /  40   0   0   0   0
TXK  50  71  44  73  50 /  50   0   0   0   0
ELD  53  71  40  72  46 /  70   0   0   0   0
TYR  49  73  45  78  52 /  30   0   0   0   0
GGG  50  73  43  77  51 /  30   0   0   0   0
LFK  54  77  44  77  49 /  60   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1100 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-291100-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1100 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AND SPREAD ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION...AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...THAT WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.
A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WILL ADD TO THE INSTABILITY WITH LARGE
HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CAN SPIN UP. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND RACE RAPIDLY EAST OUT
OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND AMATEUR
RADIO OPERATORS...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION.

06

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
720 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW TYLER              32.31N  95.32W
03/28/2014                   SMITH              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE SNAPPED AND FENCE BLOWN OVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1400151

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
722 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             BOGATA                  33.47N  95.21W
03/28/2014  E1.00 INCH       RED RIVER          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1400152

MDV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
723 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0551 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSW TYLER             32.28N  95.33W
03/28/2014                   SMITH              TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1400153

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
726 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LONGVIEW                32.52N  94.76W
03/28/2014                   GREGG              TX   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN...POWER LINES DOWN COUNTY WIDE

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1400155

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
728 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             MARSHALL                32.54N  94.35W
03/28/2014  E1.25 INCH       HARRISON           TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1400156

MDV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
731 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0637 PM     HAIL             SHREVEPORT              32.47N  93.80W
03/28/2014  M1.75 INCH       CADDO              LA   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1400157

13