Severe Thunderstorm Warning 180, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
333 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BIG STORY OF THIS FCST CYCLE CONTINUES TO BE THE PENDING SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED TO UNFOLD THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO DIG EWD INTO N TX...AND RIGOROUS CONVECTION IS ALREADY
ONGOING ACROSS N TX/CENTRAL OK. THIS WILL QUICKLY PIVOT EWD THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO OUR NWRN AREAS...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
518 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF E TX/SE OK THROUGH 02Z...WITH
MORE WATCHES LIKELY TO COME DOWNSTREAM. SETUP FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE...AS TODAY'S SCT CONVECTION
HAS DONE LITTLE TO AFFECT THE OVERALL AMPLE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
REGION. CONSIDERING THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE
SHORTWAVE...THE STRONG SURFACE FORCING WITH THE FRONT...SUFFICIENT
/ALTHOUGH MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL/ SHEAR...AND AMPLE INSTABILITY...
WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. GREATEST
THREATS CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. AS ALWAYS...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO. LATEST
MODEL RUNS SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THE
FRONT/SQUALL LINE...AND THE RAPID EWD PROGRESSION SHOULD KEEP ANY
FLOODING THREAT AT BAY.

CONVECTION WILL CLEAR THE REGION FOR THE MOST PART BY FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH SKIES QUICKLY CLEARING AND COOLER TEMPS OVERTAKING
THE REGION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD ON THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE WARMING UP TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL
BY MIDWEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING TUESDAY MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN...BUT
NOT MUCH OF A COOL-DOWN. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  63  79  49  76  50 /  90  10   0   0   0
MLU  68  81  47  74  48 /  70  20   0   0   0
DEQ  56  75  39  71  44 /  90  10   0   0   0
TXK  59  76  44  72  50 /  90  10   0   0   0
ELD  63  79  43  72  45 /  90  10   0   0   0
TYR  59  80  49  77  53 /  90  10   0   0   0
GGG  61  80  47  77  48 /  90  10   0   0   0
LFK  66  83  52  79  52 /  90  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1110 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-031615-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1110 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY
AS THE HEAT AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO BUILD AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT. BY LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE COLD FRONT
WILL RACE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AREA WIDE. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG
TO SEVERE...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW ISOLATED
TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONT BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

12

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
557 PM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLARKSVILLE             33.61N  95.06W
10/02/2014                   RED RIVER          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN - ALL OVER COUNTY

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1400533

25

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