Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1211 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

...Mesoscale Discussion and Update to Aviation Section...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1211 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2014

Convection beginning to show its cards in the past half hour with
a band of storms lining up from Manhattan, KS to Fort Scott, KS to
near Crane, MO. A very modest low level jet is producing just
enough isentropic upglide near the 310 K layer that is tapping
into elevated CAPE in the 500 to 1500 J/kg range to produce this
activity. Training of storms will be the main concern tonight,
with a risk for flash flooding in areas that encounter numerous
storm passages. Otherwise, there is a risk for hail, mainly in the
dime/nickel range, though occasionally reaching low end severe
limits. This activity is rather elevated, thus the wind risk is
low.

Fog has become more prevalent in areas along and southeast of the
plateau during the past hour. Have hoisted the dense fog advisory
in these areas with visibility frequently being reduced to one
quarter mile or less.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Well its been a little more active than previously thought. Models
did not handle today's situation very well and confidence in
tonight's forecast is low.

A frontal boundary is currently stalled from roughly near
Lamar to Roaring River State Park. West of that boundary
temperatures are in the middle 80s and over the eastern Missouri
Ozarks...temperatures were in the 60s. Convection continues to
regenerate near that boundary and has shown signs of moving slowly
westward.

The short term models are in a bit of a disagreement on the next
12 hours. But the over all trend was to move the axis of
convection slowly westward this evening. Temperatures will be
again tricky tonight through tomorrow. One note to add is there is
another very subtle mid level wave on the Water Vapor imagery over
western Nebraska that is riding southeastward it the mid level flow.

The big question mark is how this will interact with the boundary
in the area overnight and if there will be a similar repeat of
overnight convection developing late tonight through early
tomorrow morning. Will maintain highest chances for additional
convection over portions of southeast Kansas and far southwestern
Missouri for the rest of the evening and tonight.

Even though we have seen some heavy rainfall in the Springfield
area from earlier convection...no headlines for any flash flood
watches because the new development tonight should be southwest of
where the heavy rainfall fell today. There will still be a chance
for an isolated strong storm or two through tonight with marginal
severe hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph with the strongest
convection.

Will have the chance of rain diminishing through out the day on
Thursday as upper level ridging begins to move in and cut off rain
chances. Temperatures will be warmest out west tomorrow...low 80s
and coolest out east...low 70s

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Warm and dry weather with high pressure in the upper levels on
Friday and for most of the day on Saturday. A front will move in
late afternoon and overnight Saturday to bring additional showers
and thunderstorms. Look at the upper level flow and the leftover
moisture from the tropical system out in the southwest U.S...looks
like that will mainly stay southwest of our area and most of the
energy with the trough will stay up in the Great Lakes Region over
the weekend. Will continue to maintain the chance for rain this
weekend but not expecting anything heavy at this time.

The front clears through on Sunday with gradual clearing and
drying. A Canadian airmass moves in for early next week with
seasonable Fall like weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2014

Fog has developed in a more organized fashion along and south of
the plateau, with BBG at 1/4 for the past hour or so. To the
northwest, stratus has maintained itself, for the most part in the
MVFR to low end VFR range. Will continue to watch for fog
potential at SGF given moist surface conditions. Starting to see
tonight's band of storms set up. Generally in a northwest to south
east fashion from near Fort Scott, KS to just west of BBG. For
areas along and west of this band (including JLN) scattered to
numerous storms are expected with IFR restrictions beneath the
heavier downpours. Activity may briefly shunt eastward enough to
affect SGF/BBG, but this shouldn't be until around/after sunrise.
This activity will dissipate through the morning hours with flight
conditions improving to VFR during the afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT Thursday FOR MOZ082-083-091-
     092-095>098-102>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1233 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-190545-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1233 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT FOG RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A BAND EXTENDING FROM FORT SCOTT
  KANSAS SOUTHEASTWARD TO AROUND BRANSON MISSOURI. THIS ACTIVITY
  WILL AFFECT EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
  MISSOURI GENERALLY WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR.

  INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TRAIN OVER THE
  SAME AREAS REPEATEDLY. AS A RESULT...FLASH FLOODING IS
  POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND LOW WATER
  CROSSING. IN ADDITION...SMALL HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS
  EXPECTED...WITH A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZED
  HAIL. LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW
  STORMS...THOUGH THIS SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE
  RULE.

  AREAS OF FOG WILL LIMIT VISIBILITY TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS
  ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
  A LINE FROM SALEM MISSOURI TO CASSVILLE MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING IN SOME AREAS
  EARLY THURSDAY BUT WILL WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER
  THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
839 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0827 PM     HAIL             NEVADA                  37.84N 94.35W
09/17/2014  E0.75 INCH       VERNON             MO   911 CALL CENTER

&&

WISE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
912 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MOZ066-077-180245-
BARTON MO-VERNON MO-
912 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BARTON AND SOUTH
CENTRAL VERNON COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

AT 911 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BRONAUGH...OR 5 MILES NORTH OF VERDELLA...
MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BRONAUGH...HANNON...LIBERAL AND VERDELLA.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY INCLUDE PRAIRIE
STATE PARK.

LAT...LON 3752 9430 3753 9460 3772 9455 3773 9433
TIME...MOT...LOC 0213Z 356DEG 15KT 3766 9445

GAGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1030 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MOZ077-180400-
BARTON MO-
1030 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BARTON COUNTY UNTIL 1100 PM
CDT...

AT 1029 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR VERDELLA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.
PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE HANNON...IANTHA...LAMAR HEIGHTS...LAMAR...
LIBERAL...OAKTON AND VERDELLA.

HEAVY RAINS MAY QUICKLY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS CREEKS...
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS AUTOMOBILES CAN QUICKLY STALL.

LAT...LON 3765 9444 3765 9442 3750 9421 3740 9442
      3760 9456
TIME...MOT...LOC 0330Z 322DEG 6KT 3759 9446

GAGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1208 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MOZ077-088-180545-
BARTON MO-JASPER MO-
1208 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL JASPER AND SOUTH
CENTRAL BARTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM CDT...

AT 1205 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF NASHVILLE...OR 11 MILES EAST
OF FRONTENAC...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE IANTHA...JASPER...NASHVILLE AND OAKTON.

HEAVY RAINS MAY QUICKLY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS CREEKS...
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS AUTOMOBILES CAN QUICKLY STALL.

LAT...LON 3733 9422 3725 9449 3745 9457 3752 9439
TIME...MOT...LOC 0509Z 324DEG 7KT 3743 9448

GAGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1215 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

KSZ073-180545-
BOURBON KS-
1215 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BOURBON COUNTY UNTIL 1245 AM
CDT...

AT 1213 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MARMATON...OR 7 MILES WEST OF FORT
SCOTT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BRONSON...DEVON...FORT SCOTT...FULTON...
GARLAND...HAMMOND...HARDING...MAPLETON...MARMATON...PETERSBURG...
REDFIELD...UNIONTOWN AND XENIA.

HEAVY RAINS MAY QUICKLY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS CREEKS...
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS AUTOMOBILES CAN QUICKLY STALL.

LAT...LON 3803 9462 3767 9462 3780 9508 3804 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 0515Z 298DEG 13KT 3785 9483

HATCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
107 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

KSZ097-101-MOZ077-088-180630-
CHEROKEE KS-CRAWFORD KS-BARTON MO-JASPER MO-
107 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE...
NORTHWESTERN JASPER...SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD AND SOUTHWESTERN BARTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM CDT...

AT 104 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NASHVILLE...OR 10 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURG...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ALBA...ASBURY...CARL JUNCTION...
NASHVILLE...NECK CITY...OPOLIS...ORONOGO...PURCELL AND WACO.

HEAVY RAINS MAY QUICKLY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS CREEKS...
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS AUTOMOBILES CAN QUICKLY STALL.

LAT...LON 3745 9468 3745 9456 3731 9433 3720 9439
      3716 9456 3728 9471 3736 9472
TIME...MOT...LOC 0607Z 315DEG 11KT 3732 9454

HATCH