Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
944 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 944 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Radar trends over the past hour have been somewhat enlightening as
a small cluster of storms has developed around Vernon county. This
area is near a low level theta-e boundary, weak isentropic upglide
around the 310K level and just enough elevated instability to get a
kick. Additional cells have been trying to develop upstream,
though they have been slow to intensify at this point. So far we
have seen cells that move east weakening rather quick, a sign that
this activity is developing right along an instability gradient.
As a result, we will continue to watch extreme southeastern Kansas
and far western Missouri for continued development for the rest of
tonight. In addition, we will be watching for any development over
Kansas. Short term convection allowing models continue to insist
on a complex developing in central Kansas, sliding to the
southeast with time. Thus far this has not developed, but the
potential remains.

In addition, we continue to get sporadic reports of locally dense
fog. Not too surprising given the heavy rains from earlier today.
Though to this point this fog remains rather localized/spotty.
Will continue to monitor fog development in case an advisory is
required.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Well its been a little more active than previously thought. Models
did not handle today's situation very well and confidence in
tonight's forecast is low.

A frontal boundary is currently stalled from roughly near
Lamar to Roaring River State Park. West of that boundary
temperatures are in the middle 80s and over the eastern Missouri
Ozarks...temperatures were in the 60s. Convection continues to
regenerate near that boundary and has shown signs of moving slowly
westward.

The short term models are in a bit of a disagreement on the next
12 hours. But the over all trend was to move the axis of
convection slowly westward this evening. Temperatures will be
again tricky tonight through tomorrow. One note to add is there is
another very subtle mid level wave on the Water Vapor imagery over
western Nebraska that is riding southeastward it the mid level flow.

The big question mark is how this will interact with the boundary
in the area overnight and if there will be a similar repeat of
overnight convection developing late tonight through early
tomorrow morning. Will maintain highest chances for additional
convection over portions of southeast Kansas and far southwestern
Missouri for the rest of the evening and tonight.

Even though we have seen some heavy rainfall in the Springfield
area from earlier convection...no headlines for any flash flood
watches because the new development tonight should be southwest of
where the heavy rainfall fell today. There will still be a chance
for an isolated strong storm or two through tonight with marginal
severe hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph with the strongest
convection.

Will have the chance of rain diminishing through out the day on
Thursday as upper level ridging begins to move in and cut off rain
chances. Temperatures will be warmest out west tomorrow...low 80s
and coolest out east...low 70s

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Warm and dry weather with high pressure in the upper levels on
Friday and for most of the day on Saturday. A front will move in
late afternoon and overnight Saturday to bring additional showers
and thunderstorms. Look at the upper level flow and the leftover
moisture from the tropical system out in the southwest U.S...looks
like that will mainly stay southwest of our area and most of the
energy with the trough will stay up in the Great Lakes Region over
the weekend. Will continue to maintain the chance for rain this
weekend but not expecting anything heavy at this time.

The front clears through on Sunday with gradual clearing and
drying. A Canadian airmass moves in for early next week with
seasonable Fall like weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Very complicated forecast for tonight. There is a conditional risk
for fog at all sites, especially SGF/BBG where heavy rain fell
today. There are also signals for another complex of storms to
clip the area late tonight. If these storms do materialize, fog
will be a lesser risk. If we can stay clear, fog will be a much
greater risk. Much will depend on the evolution of mesoscale (and
finer) details in the next few hours. Will utilize amendments to
change course if/when needed. If fog is the winner tonight and
storms do not materialize, LIFR conditions are possible, gradually
improving during the daylight hours of Thursday morning. VFR is
expected Thursday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
743 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-190045-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
743 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED FOG RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE TIME BEING.
  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
  EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI OVERNIGHT
  TONIGHT. SMALL HAIL AND LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE
  POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS.

  RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL ON
  WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
  LATE TONIGHT.

  AREAS OF FOG WILL LIMIT VISIBILITY TO ONE MILE OR LESS...
  ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING IN SOME AREAS
  EARLY THURSDAY BUT WILL WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER
  THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
525 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

KSZ101-MOZ088-093-172315-
CHEROKEE KS-JASPER MO-NEWTON MO-
525 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE...
SOUTHWESTERN JASPER AND WESTERN NEWTON COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 524 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SOUTHWESTERN JOPLIN...OR 4 MILES EAST OF
GALENA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE AIRPORT DRIVE...CLIFF VILLAGE...DENNIS
ACRES...DUQUESNE...GALENA...IRON GATES...JOPLIN...LEAWOOD...NEOSHO...
OAKLAND PARK...RACINE...REDINGS MILL...SAGINAW...SENECA...SHOAL CREEK
DRIVE...SHOAL CREEK ESTATES...SILVER CREEK AND WEBB CITY.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 11 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3689 9463 3699 9463 3700 9467 3714 9472
      3718 9451 3687 9420 3678 9460
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 324DEG 23KT 3705 9455

GRIFFIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
825 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MOZ066-077-180215-
BARTON MO-VERNON MO-
825 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN BARTON AND SOUTHERN
VERNON COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

AT 822 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MOUNDVILLE...OR 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
NEVADA...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BRONAUGH...DEERFIELD...HANNON...MILO...
MOUNDVILLE...NEVADA...OSKALOOSA...SHELDON AND VERDELLA.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN BARTON AND SOUTHERN VERNON COUNTIES...INCLUDING
SHELDON AND VERDELLA...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE
ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3781 9420 3759 9408 3759 9461 3787 9459
      3791 9429
TIME...MOT...LOC 0125Z 342DEG 13KT 3777 9443

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
839 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0827 PM     HAIL             NEVADA                  37.84N 94.35W
09/17/2014  E0.75 INCH       VERNON             MO   911 CALL CENTER

&&

WISE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
912 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MOZ066-077-180245-
BARTON MO-VERNON MO-
912 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BARTON AND SOUTH
CENTRAL VERNON COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

AT 911 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BRONAUGH...OR 5 MILES NORTH OF VERDELLA...
MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BRONAUGH...HANNON...LIBERAL AND VERDELLA.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY INCLUDE PRAIRIE
STATE PARK.

LAT...LON 3752 9430 3753 9460 3772 9455 3773 9433
TIME...MOT...LOC 0213Z 356DEG 15KT 3766 9445

GAGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1030 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MOZ077-180400-
BARTON MO-
1030 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BARTON COUNTY UNTIL 1100 PM
CDT...

AT 1029 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR VERDELLA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.
PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE HANNON...IANTHA...LAMAR HEIGHTS...LAMAR...
LIBERAL...OAKTON AND VERDELLA.

HEAVY RAINS MAY QUICKLY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS CREEKS...
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS AUTOMOBILES CAN QUICKLY STALL.

LAT...LON 3765 9444 3765 9442 3750 9421 3740 9442
      3760 9456
TIME...MOT...LOC 0330Z 322DEG 6KT 3759 9446

GAGAN