Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1225 PM CDT Fri May 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

Scattered convection continues to move east/southeast across this
area this morning, ahead of an approaching cold front.  This front
isn't terribly well defined this morning, owning to widespread
modification from thunderstorm outflow.  That front should continue
to settle southeast this morning, likely accelerating a bit later
today as an approaching shortwave (currently over western Kansas)
gives it a bit of a kick.

Scattered showers/thunderstorms will continue in some fashion
through the morning hours today, with some uptick in strength and/or
renewed development east of U.S. 65 later this afternoon.  With the
approaching shortwave, deep layer shear should be sufficient for
organized storms.  Assuming that remnant convection and cloud cover
this morning doesn't preclude at least modest destabilization across
this area this afternoon, several strong to severe thunderstorms
will be possible later this afternoon into this evening.  Steep
lapse rates and good shear in the hail growth zone suggests the
potential for several larger hail reports (perhaps as large as golf
balls) with supercell structures.  Short term model guidance also
suggests the development of low level theta-e differentials between
20K and 30K, which would be favorable for strong downburst wind
gusts.  Any tornado threat this afternoon should be closely tied to
interactions between outflow boundaries and other small scale
features, so while not particularly widespread, it will be something
to watch.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

The frontal boundary, again modified by numerous outflow boundaries,
is then expected to settle into southern Missouri or perhaps
northern Arkansas by early Saturday morning, before quickly mixing
back north as a warm front during the day Saturday.  Behind that
warm front, a very unstable airmass will build into the area
Saturday afternoon, along with appreciable large scale shear.  Weak
height rises and overall nebulous forcing make Saturday's severe
weather threat highly conditional, but given the airmass that will
be in place, severe weather is a good bet SHOULD something be able
to develop.

Any convection that fires Saturday afternoon and early evening
should then translate east across central and eventually eastern
Missouri with the overall mean flow heading into late Saturday
night.  Interestingly, some model guidance is then hinting at MCS
development late Saturday night and early Sunday along the northern
edge of a strong EML, which will build into the area Sunday.  Much
like Saturday afternoon/evening, there will be conditional nocturnal
severe weather threat for late Saturday night and early Sunday,
assuming something does actually develop.

With the aforementioned EML advecting in Sunday, much of Mother's
Day should be dry once any early morning convection moves out.
Sunday does look to be quite warm and muggy, with widespread upper
60s dewpoints across the region.

A cold front will start to sharpen up across the Central Plains
Sunday night and Monday, as a deep western trough begins to eject
east across the Rockies.  Differences in timing remain among the
guidance suite, but this front should move across the region (fairly
slowly) Monday into Tuesday.  Depending on exact timing and
associated destabilization ahead of the front, one or more rounds of
severe weather will be possible Monday and Tuesday.  Timing and
threats will need to be fine tuned over the coming days.

In the wake of that cold front, northwest flow aloft and much cooler
air at the surface will be in place across the region for a few
days.  Highs look to be 5 to 10 degrees below normal for the middle
and latter portions of next week.|

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

Main concern remains on convective potential at the taf
sites...especially KBBG. Frontal boundary at 17z located between
KSGF and KBBG. Band of MVR ceilings found just along and slightly
behind the front affecting both the KBBG and KSGF taf sites.
satellite trends and short term models indicate these clouds will
scatter out in the next several hours with VFR conditions
expected. cannot rule out convective development ahead of the front
affecting KBBG through about 20z after which the potential
wanes with the passage of the front.

Winds will come around to the southeast late tonight with speeds
increasing to above 12 knots after 15z. with some gusts to 22
knots at KJLN and KSGF between 15z-18z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Raberding

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1058 AM CDT FRI MAY 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HAIL             4 NNW BATTLEFIELD       37.17N 93.39W
05/09/2014  M0.75 INCH       GREENE             MO   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED NEAR BROOKLINE

&&

MGRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1153 AM CDT FRI MAY 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     HAIL             1 SSE SALEM             37.63N 91.53W
05/09/2014  M1.50 INCH       DENT               MO   PUBLIC

            PICTURE FROM SOCIAL MEDIA SHOWED PING PONG SIZED HAIL

&&

MGRIFFIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1213 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

MOZ097-091745-
HOWELL MO-
1213 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL HOWELL COUNTY UNTIL 1245
PM CDT...

AT 1206 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR POTTERSVILLE...OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WEST PLAINS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE PEACE VALLEY...POTTERSVILLE...WEST PLAINS
AND WHITE CHURCH.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL HOWELL COUNTY...INCLUDING WEST PLAINS...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER
THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3674 9211 3694 9167 3667 9168 3662 9211
TIME...MOT...LOC 1713Z 247DEG 43KT 3669 9196

GRIFFIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1223 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

MOZ082-097-098-091800-
HOWELL MO-SHANNON MO-TEXAS MO-
1223 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SHANNON...NORTHEASTERN
HOWELL AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM CDT...

AT 1218 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PINE CREST...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MOUNTAIN VIEW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ALLEY SPRING...ARROLL...EMINENCE...
MOUNTAIN VIEW...PINE CREST...ROUND SPRING...SUMMERSVILLE...TERESITA
AND WEST EMINENCE.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY INCLUDE CURRENT
RIVER STATE PARK.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL SHANNON...NORTHEASTERN HOWELL AND SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS COUNTIES...INCLUDING EMINENCE...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3737 9133 3712 9110 3693 9176 3706 9187
TIME...MOT...LOC 1723Z 240DEG 45KT 3709 9156

GRIFFIN

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