Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
247 AM CDT Fri May 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

Scattered convection continues to move east/southeast across this
area this morning, ahead of an approaching cold front.  This front
isn't terribly well defined this morning, owning to widespread
modification from thunderstorm outflow.  That front should continue
to settle southeast this morning, likely accelerating a bit later
today as an approaching shortwave (currently over western Kansas)
gives it a bit of a kick.

Scattered showers/thunderstorms will continue in some fashion
through the morning hours today, with some uptick in strength and/or
renewed development east of U.S. 65 later this afternoon.  With the
approaching shortwave, deep layer shear should be sufficient for
organized storms.  Assuming that remnant convection and cloud cover
this morning doesn't preclude at least modest destabilization across
this area this afternoon, several strong to severe thunderstorms
will be possible later this afternoon into this evening.  Steep
lapse rates and good shear in the hail growth zone suggests the
potential for several larger hail reports (perhaps as large as golf
balls) with supercell structures.  Short term model guidance also
suggests the development of low level theta-e differentials between
20K and 30K, which would be favorable for strong downburst wind
gusts.  Any tornado threat this afternoon should be closely tied to
interactions between outflow boundaries and other small scale
features, so while not particularly widespread, it will be something
to watch.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

The frontal boundary, again modified by numerous outflow boundaries,
is then expected to settle into southern Missouri or perhaps
northern Arkansas by early Saturday morning, before quickly mixing
back north as a warm front during the day Saturday.  Behind that
warm front, a very unstable airmass will build into the area
Saturday afternoon, along with appreciable large scale shear.  Weak
height rises and overall nebulous forcing make Saturday's severe
weather threat highly conditional, but given the airmass that will
be in place, severe weather is a good bet SHOULD something be able
to develop.

Any convection that fires Saturday afternoon and early evening
should then translate east across central and eventually eastern
Missouri with the overall mean flow heading into late Saturday
night.  Interestingly, some model guidance is then hinting at MCS
development late Saturday night and early Sunday along the northern
edge of a strong EML, which will build into the area Sunday.  Much
like Saturday afternoon/evening, there will be conditional nocturnal
severe weather threat for late Saturday night and early Sunday,
assuming something does actually develop.

With the aforementioned EML advecting in Sunday, much of Mother's
Day should be dry once any early morning convection moves out.
Sunday does look to be quite warm and muggy, with widespread upper
60s dewpoints across the region.

A cold front will start to sharpen up across the Central Plains
Sunday night and Monday, as a deep western trough begins to eject
east across the Rockies.  Differences in timing remain among the
guidance suite, but this front should move across the region (fairly
slowly) Monday into Tuesday.  Depending on exact timing and
associated destabilization ahead of the front, one or more rounds of
severe weather will be possible Monday and Tuesday.  Timing and
threats will need to be fine tuned over the coming days.

In the wake of that cold front, northwest flow aloft and much cooler
air at the surface will be in place across the region for a few
days.  Highs look to be 5 to 10 degrees below normal for the middle
and latter portions of next week.|

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorm will be possible for the
regions terminals through 10z as a cold front moves very slowly to
the east across Kansas. Ceilings will become MVFR across the area
during the overnight hours with slowly improving flight conditions
during the day on Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Hatch

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
452 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-101000-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
452 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
  THE OUTLOOK AREA. A FEW OF THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL
  TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

  LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
  DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
  THE BEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
  MISSOURI AND THE EASTERN OZARKS...WHERE HAIL TO SIZE OF GOLF
  BALLS AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

  THERE IS THEN A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
  SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN
  MANAGE TO DEVELOP ALONG A RETREATING WARM FRONT. IF STORMS DO
  DEVELOP...THEY WOULD LIKELY BE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
  HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ALONG
  WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES.

  ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FROM
  LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE EXACT TIMING AND
  THREAT AREAS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR
  TUESDAY...WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND END
  THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
  AND THE EASTERN OZARKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

BOXELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
248 AM CDT FRI MAY 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0143 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 E WHEATON             36.77N 93.98W
05/08/2014                   BARRY              MO   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            ROOF BLOWN OFF A TRAILER WITH TREES DOWN.

0145 PM     TORNADO          4 W BUTTERFIELD         36.75N 93.98W
05/08/2014                   BARRY              MO   NWS STORM SURVEY

            A NWS STORM SURVEY INDICATED THAT AN EF0 TORNADO TOUCHED
            DOWN 4 MILES WEST OF BUTTERFIELD ON THE AFTERNOON OF MAY
            8. THIS TORNADO PRODUCED CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE ALONG A
            2.25 MILE LONG AND 50 YARD WIDE PATH. IT TOUCHED DOWN
            AROUND 145 PM AND LIFTED AT AROUND 150 PM FROM 4 MILES
            WEST OF BUTTERFIELD AND MOVED TO THE NORTHEAST TO 4.1
            MILES NORTHWEST OF BUTTERFIELD. NUMEROUS TREES WERE
            UPROOTED AND SNAPPED. WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 85 MPH.

0410 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 E CRANE               36.91N 93.50W
05/08/2014                   STONE              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A COUPLE OF TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED.

0509 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NW AVA                37.00N 92.71W
05/08/2014                   DOUGLAS            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND ROAD SIGNS BENT DOWN. VERY OLD
            POORLY CONSTRCTED BARN DESTROYED. POWER LINES DOWN. MINOR
            STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO ONE HOUSE. LOCATION ON K HIGHWAY
            APPOX ONE MILE NORTH OF WEST HIGHWAY 14. POSSIBLE TORNADO
            WITH RADAR INDICATED ROATION AND DEBRIS SIGNATURE.

&&

GAGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
459 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

KSZ101-091045-
CHEROKEE KS-
459 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTY UNTIL
545 AM CDT...

AT 456 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES WEST OF MELROSE...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF CHETOPA...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BAXTER SPRINGS...GALENA...LOWELL...
MELROSE...NEUTRAL...RIVERTON AND TREECE.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTY...INCLUDING TREECE...BAXTER
SPRINGS AND GALENA...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE
ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3715 9462 3701 9461 3700 9462 3699 9501
      3700 9507 3700 9508 3709 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 1000Z 255DEG 44KT 3695 9517

GAGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
539 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

MOZ088-093-091130-
JASPER MO-NEWTON MO-
539 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NEWTON AND SOUTHERN
JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 630 AM CDT...

AT 535 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF IRON
GATES TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF IRON GATES TO 10 MILES WEST OF
RACINE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE AIRPORT DRIVE...CARTERVILLE...CARTHAGE...
DIAMOND...DUENWEG...DUQUESNE...GRANBY...IRON GATES...JOPLIN...
LEAWOOD...SAGINAW...SARCOXIE...SHOAL CREEK DRIVE...SILVER CREEK AND
WEBB CITY.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 31 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN NEWTON AND SOUTHERN JASPER COUNTIES...INCLUDING
IRON GATES...SHOAL CREEK DRIVE...JOPLIN...AIRPORT DRIVE...LEAWOOD...
WEBB CITY...SILVER CREEK...DUQUESNE...SAGINAW...CARTERVILLE...
DUENWEG...CARTHAGE...DIAMOND...GRANBY AND SARCOXIE...SHOULD MONITOR
THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3715 9462 3725 9405 3691 9406 3686 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 1039Z 249DEG 45KT 3711 9461 3703 9460
          3691 9464

GAGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
613 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

MOZ094-091200-
LAWRENCE MO-
613 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAWRENCE COUNTY UNTIL 700 AM
CDT...

AT 608 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES WEST OF RED
OAK TO 13 MILES WEST OF STOTTS CITY TO 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF STOTTS
CITY...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  RED OAK BY 620 AM CDT.
  STOTTS CITY BY 625 AM CDT.
  FREISTATT BY 630 AM CDT.
  MOUNT VERNON...MILLER AND HOBERG BY 635 AM CDT.
  VERONA BY 640 AM CDT.
  CHESAPEAKE AND AURORA BY 645 AM CDT.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 33 AND 58 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN LAWRENCE COUNTY...INCLUDING MILLER...MOUNT VERNON...VERONA
AND AURORA...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3696 9406 3726 9405 3728 9361 3716 9361
      3695 9366
TIME...MOT...LOC 1113Z 260DEG 41KT 3722 9414 3709 9411
          3696 9417

GAGAN