Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
641 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 640 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

Cold front has taken over the dryline over western areas and will
continue to accelerate southeastward this evening. Another mid level
enhancement on the water vapor suggest that an up tick in convection
will be possible over the far southwestern portions of Missouri over
the next couple of hours. MUCAPE is around 1000 J/KG southwest of
Springfield and shear is still very impressive.  The overall
thinking is that storms will line up along the cold front and
advance southeastward this evening. Strong winds and nearly severe
hail will be the main threat later this evening.  Storms should
clear through the area by midnight tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

The cold front will push eastward across the Ozarks this evening
as a vigorous shortwave trough tracks northeast across the
Midwest. Expect thunderstorms to evolve into linear segments along
the front but cannot rule out discrete supercells along and just
ahead of the line through early evening. The potential for severe
storms will persist through much of the evening but the risk will
gradually diminish after sunset. Damaging wind gusts will
remain the primary hazard risk given the strong environmental
winds just off of the surface while large will also be possible.
The limited risk for a tornado will diminish with sunset.

The front will push to our south overnight but stall as another
shortwave trough approaches Friday. This will bring showers
northward back into southern Missouri by Friday afternoon. This
activity will be most numerous near the Arkansas border where a
few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out. Otherwise a mostly
cloudy sky and cooler temperatures can be expected Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

A quasi-zonal pattern will set up this weekend into next week
across the CONUS. This will bring shortwaves and accompanying
fronts eastward across the region every couple of days while
maintaining seasonably mild temperatures.

A return southerly flow by Sunday will send temperatures well into
the 60s to near 70 degrees. The warming temperatures and
increasing southerly Sunday will result in elevated fire weather
conditions.

The next front will arrive Monday and may be accompanied by
scattered showers. A better chance of convection will develop
during mid week as the next shortwave arrives and taps into a
better moisture supply.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

Very active weather expected over the next 3 to 6 hours as
thunderstorms move through the region ahead of an advancing cold
front. Activity is in developing stages near the SGF aerodrome and
well to the west of BBG. Expect a period of MVFR, and possibly
IFR, with any thunderstorms, as well as gusty winds. The cold
front will pass through JLN within the next hour and this will
bring an end to the thunderstorm risk there. Winds ahead of the
front will remain gusty this evening, but not nearly as gusty as
earlier today. Clearing is expected behind the cold front tonight,
however another storm system moving across the southern tier of
the U.S. will bring an increase in clouds to the area Friday, with
showers possible by late in the afternoon at SGF and especially
BBG.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Griffin
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Gagan

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
755 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             4 E FLEMINGTON          37.80N 93.43W
03/27/2014  M1.00 INCH       POLK               MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
823 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 PM     HAIL             3 SW STOTTS CITY        37.07N 93.99W
03/27/2014  M0.88 INCH       LAWRENCE           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL REPORTED

&&

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
831 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 WNW ELDON             38.38N 92.67W
03/27/2014                   MORGAN             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SMALL TREES AND FENCING BLOWN DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION
            OF HIGHWAYS 52 AND AA.

&&

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
845 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     HAIL             6 N LEBANON             37.77N 92.66W
03/27/2014  E0.75 INCH       LACLEDE            MO   PUBLIC

&&

JCOLUCCI

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