Severe Thunderstorm Warning 223, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
211 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)

It was a hot and humid day over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. This led to strong instability within this
airmass, with mixed layer capes exceeding 2500 j/kg in most areas.

With a frontal system approaching from the northwest this
afternoon and evening, we think strong to severe storms will be
possible, despite the weak shear present.

The primary hazard with the stronger storms this evening will be
damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. The highest concentration
of storms should occur north of the Interstate 44 corridor, or
essentially along and north of the frontal boundary.

This frontal system will continue to push through southern
Missouri tonight, leaving behind residual showers and
thunderstorms. In fact, this activity could persist over southern
Missouri into the Saturday morning hours. We think by noon
Saturday, all locations will be dry across southern Missouri.

The front will also chill temperatures down to comfortable levels.
Highs on Saturday will only warm into the middle 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)

The upper level pattern through most of the Sunday through Friday
time frame will be low amplitude and highly zonal. The summertime
ridge becomes suppressed into southern Texas, allowing for
westerlies to return over southern Missouri.

This pattern shift will lead to additional thunderstorm chances
next work week beginning Tuesday.

Southerly winds commence Monday night bringing back a Gulf airmass
by Tuesday. Models suggest that a short wave trough will approach
and trigger a round of thunderstorms. Storm intensity could depend
on the timing of these storms developing.

This wave will also force a frontal boundary across the region,
and is forecasted to stall out either over southern Missouri or
northern Arkansas.

This feature will become a focus for additional thunderstorm
potential into Wednesday and Thursday. We could experience some
decent rainfall amounts during the Tuesday through Thursday
period.

Have a great weekend and enjoy the cooler weather this weekend !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2014

A cold front will push southeast through the area from late this
afternoon into this evening. Scattered thunderstorms are expected
during this time period with showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms then lingering into late tonight and Saturday
morning. MVFR and brief IFR can be expected beneath any storms.
Weather models then continue to paint a signal for lowering
ceilings for late tonight and Saturday morning. The highest
probability for low-end MVFR and potential IFR will be at
Springfield due to local terrain effects.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
349 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2014

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-062100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
349 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

DISCUSSION...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL FACILITATE A DAMAGING
WIND RISK WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI. SMALL HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 90S TO NEAR 100
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMEST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

A STORMY PATTERN WILL EVOLVE NEXT WEEK FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
  CENTRAL MISSOURI.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CRAMER/SCHAUMANN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
352 PM CDT FRI SEP 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0351 PM     TSTM WND GST     DIXON                   37.99N 92.09W
09/05/2014  M54 MPH          PULASKI            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            54 MPH WIND GUSTS REPORTED BY PERSONAL WEATHER STATION.

&&

MGRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
451 PM CDT FRI SEP 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0351 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NNW DEVIL'S ELBOW     37.90N 92.09W
09/05/2014                   PULASKI            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE OVER THE ROADWAY BLOCKING ONE LANE OF TRAFFIC ON
            HIGHWAY 28 AND HIGHWAY PP

&&

MGRIFFIN