River Flood Warning 8, NWS Seattle, WA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
910 AM PST MON FEB 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY. THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SUNBREAKS THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND BLUSTERY WEATHER
TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SWITCH OVER TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AND THE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS WELCOME
CLEARING JUST OFFSHORE. AT 9AM THERE WERE STILL SOME AREAS OF RAIN
OVER SW WA BUT THOSE WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A LITTLE
CLEARING BY NOON. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE CASCADES ENDS AT NOON. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL START DEVELOPING WELL OFFSHORE TODAY AND SPEED INTO
WESTERN WA TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS SHOW A 981 MB LOW TRACKING TO
HAIDA GWAII TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE TRAILING FRONTAL SYSTEM GIVING
WESTERN WA AND WESTERN OREGON ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND BLUSTERY
WEATHER THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ONSHORE FLOW ARE LIKELY
FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
MAYBE SOME CLEARING PERIODS AGAIN FOR THE LOWLANDS...THEN YET
ANOTHER SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD BE THE LAST ONE IN THIS SERIES...WILL
REACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...A PRETTY ZONAL LOOKING PATTERN WITH WNW FLOW ALOFT
EARLY THURSDAY BECOMES MORE NW FRIDAY AND WRN WA SHOULD DRY OUT.
THERE IS A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING BY TO THE NORTH WHICH COULD BRUSH
WRN WA...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MIGHT TURN OUT TO BE A BIT CLOUDIER
WITH A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP IN THE CASCADES. THE RIDGE IS SLOWER AND
WEAKER NOW BUT STILL BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THE GFS
SHOWS IT STRENGTHENING OVER THE REGION MONDAY SO THE TREND TO A DRY
WEATHER FORECAST STILL LOOKS PRETTY GOOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE RAIN WAS HEAVIEST OVER SW WA OVERNIGHT WITH 2 TO 3
INCHES AND FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE FOR GRAYS HARBOR COUNTY...LEWIS
COUNTY...MASON COUNTY...AND THURSTON COUNTY. AS OF 9AM THERE WERE
TWO FLOOD WARNINGS IN EFFECT...THE SKOKOMISH RIVER NEAR POTLATCH WAS
STILL RISING BUT A BIT SLOWER THAN THE FORECAST SO THAT MAY MISS
REACHING FLOOD STAGE TODAY. THE DESCHUTES RIVER NEAR RAINIER ROSE
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING AND MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED. WHILE
THIS IS NOT A TYPICAL FLOOD PATTERN FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON ANOTHER
FRONT ON TUESDAY WILL KEEP EYES ON THE CHEHALIS...NEWAUKUM AND
SKOOKUMCHUCK...AND OF COURSE THE SKOKOMISH RIVER. RIVERS SHOULD
BEGIN RECEDING AROUND THURSDAY AS A DRIER PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. THERE IS MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE IN THE WAKE
OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT PASSED LAST NIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST
AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE. THERE IS STILL SOME RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTH BUT
MOSTLY THE WEATHER IS SCATTERED SHOWERS.

CEILINGS ARE MOSTLY MVFR WITH MULTIPLE CLOUD DECKS. A FEW VFR AND
IFR CEILINGS EXIST. A GENERAL IMPROVING TREND FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WILL LIFT CEILINGS TODAY. A CUMULUS FIELD IS LIKELY TO
FORM IN THE CLEARING AREAS. AFTER SUNSET THE CUMULUS WILL EVAPORATE
AND THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN SOME AREAS.
PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE.

KSEA...MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. METRO
AREA IS LIKELY TO STAY CLOUDY INTO THE EVENING AT LEAST SO DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CLEARING. IFR FOG SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS 12G22KT EASING TO 8-12KT TONIGHT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT HOWEVER BRIEFLY
OVER MOST AREAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER PUGET SOUND AND THE COAST AT TIMES AND THE ADVISORIES WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT OVER THOSE WATERS.

NEXT FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A 980 MB LOW MOVING INTO HAIDA GWAII WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
TO BE  WEAKER THEN THE PREVIOUS TWO FRONTS WITH JUST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS FORECAST FOR ALL OF THE WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

SWELL WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS THE SERIES OF STORMS CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BEGINNING FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND WINDS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING CASCADES THIS MORNING.
     WINTER STORM WATCH CASCADES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
     FLOOD WARNING SKOKOMISH AND DESCHUTES RIVER.
     FLOOD WATCH MASON...THURSTON...LEWIS...GRAYS HARBOR COUNTIES.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST...WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT...
     AND PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1029 AM PST MON FEB 17 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1028 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 ESE NORTH BEND        47.47N 121.74W
02/17/2014  M2.19 INCH       KING               WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

JSMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1043 AM PST MON FEB 17 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1042 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 WSW PUYALLUP          47.17N 122.38W
02/17/2014  M2.93 INCH       PIERCE             WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OVER LAST 21 HOURS.

&&

JSMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1047 AM PST MON FEB 17 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNE LITTLEROCK        46.93N 123.00W
02/17/2014  M2.45 INCH       THURSTON           WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

JSMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1051 AM PST MON FEB 17 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 ENE VAIL              46.86N 122.58W
02/17/2014  M2.17 INCH       THURSTON           WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JSMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1053 AM PST MON FEB 17 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 ENE VAIL              46.86N 122.58W
02/17/2014  M2.17 INCH       THURSTON           WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

JSMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1102 AM PST MON FEB 17 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1054 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 WSW BELFAIR           47.43N 122.89W
02/17/2014  M2.34 INCH       MASON              WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

JSMITH