River Flood Warning 10, NWS Seattle, WA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PST MON FEB 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND PARTIAL CLEARING PERIODS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT IN A BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. THE NEXT FRONT WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND BLUSTERY WEATHER TUESDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SPEED INTO WESTERN WA
TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS SHOW A 981 MB LOW TRACKING JUST NORTH OF
TO HAIDA GWAII TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE TRAILING FRONTAL SYSTEM
GIVING WESTERN WA AND WESTERN OREGON ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND
BLUSTERY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY IS UP
FOR TUESDAY ON THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH WHERE IT SHOULD BE
BLUSTERY BUT NOT AS WINDY AS THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. SHOWERS AND
ONSHORE FLOW ARE LIKELY FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH SNOW SHOWERS
STILL HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE CASCADES. LIKE TODAY THERE OUGHT TO BE
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING PERIODS IN THE LOWLANDS. THE LAST FRONTAL
SYSTEM IN THE SERIES WILL REACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. THE AIR IS COOLEST ALOFT LATER TUE NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AND THE SNOW LEVEL WILL PROBABLY DROP BELOW 1000 FEET BY
DAYBREAK WED BUT STRONG ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW ON THE
HILLS AWAY FROM THE WATER AND MAINLY ONLY NEAR THE CASCADES.

.LONG TERM...A ZONAL LOOKING PATTERN WITH WNW FLOW ALOFT EARLY
THURSDAY BECOMES MORE NW FRIDAY AND WRN WA SHOULD DRY OUT. THERE IS
A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING BY TO THE NORTH WHICH COULD BRUSH WRN
WA...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MIGHT TURN OUT TO BE A BIT CLOUDIER WITH A
LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP IN THE CASCADES. THE RIDGE IS SLOWER AND WEAKER
NOW BUT STILL BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THE GFS SHOWS IT
STRENGTHENING OVER THE REGION MONDAY SO THE TREND TO A DRY WEATHER
FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT OVER SOUTHWEST
WA...BUT THE RIVERS WILL RECEDE TONIGHT. THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE IN
TUESDAY...WITH THE RAIN POSSIBLY BECOMING HEAVY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK AS WET OVER SOUTHWEST WA AS THE PREVIOUS FRONT
BUT WITH THE RIVERS RUNNING HIGH...THE CHEHALIS...NEWAUKUM...
SKOOKUMCHUCK...DESCHUTES AND OF COURSE THE SKOKOMISH RIVERS WILL BE
WATCHES. RIVERS SHOULD BEGIN RECEDING THURSDAY AS A DRIER PATTERN
DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. THERE IS MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE IN THE WAKE
OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT PASSED LAST NIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST
AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE. SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
INCREASE TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT REACHES THE AREA. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RESUME TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CEILINGS ARE MOSTLY VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR IN SHOWERS. AFTER SUNSET THE
CUMULUS WILL EVAPORATE AND THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES IN MAINLY WESTERN AREAS. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE.
CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO MVFR 15Z-18Z AS RAIN DEVELOPS.

KSEA...METRO AREA IS LIKELY TO STAY CLOUDY INTO THE EVENING AT LEAST
SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CLEARING. IFR FOG SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS
POINT. SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-12KT THIS EVENING WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AFTER
06Z AND INCREASE TO 12G22KT AFTER 18Z. CHB

&&

.MARINE...WESTERLY WIND KICKED UP A BIT STRONGER THAN FORECAST IN
THE STRAIT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE. A
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A 980 MB LOW MOVING INTO HAIDA GWAII WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING GALES
TO THE COAST...ENTRANCES...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS. GALE WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN POSTED. OTHER WATERS WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND
POST FRONTAL THERE COULD BE GALE WESTERLIES IN THE STRAIT...THOUGH
FOR NOW HAVE 20-30 KT INDICATED.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS ONE COULD ALSO PRODUCE GALES.

SWELL WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS THE SERIES OF STORMS CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BEGINNING FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND WINDS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING CASCADES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OLYMPICS TUESDAY.
     FLOOD WATCH MASON...THURSTON...LEWIS...GRAYS HARBOR COUNTIES.

PZ...GALE WARNING COAST...ENTRANCES...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS TUESDAY.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST AND STRAIT THIS EVENING.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OTHER WATERS TUESDAY.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1029 AM PST MON FEB 17 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1028 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 ESE NORTH BEND        47.47N 121.74W
02/17/2014  M2.19 INCH       KING               WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

JSMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1043 AM PST MON FEB 17 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1042 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 WSW PUYALLUP          47.17N 122.38W
02/17/2014  M2.93 INCH       PIERCE             WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OVER LAST 21 HOURS.

&&

JSMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1047 AM PST MON FEB 17 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNE LITTLEROCK        46.93N 123.00W
02/17/2014  M2.45 INCH       THURSTON           WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

JSMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1051 AM PST MON FEB 17 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 ENE VAIL              46.86N 122.58W
02/17/2014  M2.17 INCH       THURSTON           WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JSMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1053 AM PST MON FEB 17 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 ENE VAIL              46.86N 122.58W
02/17/2014  M2.17 INCH       THURSTON           WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

JSMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1102 AM PST MON FEB 17 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1054 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 WSW BELFAIR           47.43N 122.89W
02/17/2014  M2.34 INCH       MASON              WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

JSMITH