Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
334 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE BEING SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD AS A UPPER TROUGH HEADS EAST
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER
TURNS TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER BY WEEKS END.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT MONDAY...

CONVECTION FIRING ALONG A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT WITH INSTABILITY
HIGHER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. DCAPES ARE PUSHING 1000-1500 J/KG SO
WET MICROBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL ARE POTENTIALS WITH SOME
OF THESE STORMS. WEAK FLOW WILL CAUSE HEAVY RAINERS AS WELL AND
WILL SEE LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL. SO...FOR NOW WILL BE HAVING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE CWA THRU EARLY
EVENING BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING AND ANY UPPER WEAK SUPPORT
SUBSIDES.

WILL SEE SOMETHING SIMILAR TOMORROW AS 5H HIGH SITUATES ITSELF
OVER THE TN VALLEY...WITH EMBEDDED WEAK WAVE MOVING SE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IN THE AFTERNOON. WEAK FLOW AGAIN WILL LEAD
TO HEAVY RAINERS...AND ISOLATED STRONG TO SVR STORMS.

OTHER THAN THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WARM MUGGY CONDITIONS AT NIGHT
WITH FOG FORMING IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE IT RAINED IN THE EARLY
EVENING.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY IN TERMS OF HIGH TEMPS...RUNNING
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S WEST...SOME UPPER 80S NEW RIVER VALLEY AND
MTN EMPIRE TO LOWER 90S EAST...AND ROANOKE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...

TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED EAST OF THE COASTS OF THE CAROLINAS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
AND AN 850 MB HIGH WILL BE VERTICALLY STACKED AND CENTERED OVER
TENNESSEE. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST THEN WEST ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE 850 MB HIGH.

WHILE NOT THE MOST DIRECT ROUTE...GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL BE
REACHING THE AREA VIA KENTUCKY AFTER A CLOCKWISE TRIP AROUND THE 850
MB HIGH WITH ITS ORIGINS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE BEST CAPPING
INVERSION WEST OF THE AREA WILL YIELD DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL
SEND A BACKDOOR FRONT TOWARD AREA AND ADD GREATER DYNAMICS TO THE
REGION FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS FEATURE WILL
ALSO ALLOW THE UPPER RIDGE TO SINK FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE GULF
COAST...SO THERE WILL BE EVEN LESS OF AN IMPACT OF ANY CAPPING
INVERSION.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK ACTIVE AS UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS WHILE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. STAYING CLOSE TO WHAT WE
FORECASTED YESTERDAY IN TERMS OF KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE...DUE TO TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES RACING ALONG THE SRN
EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. ALL IN ALL EVEN THOUGH WILL HAVE POPS NO
HIGHER THAN 50-55...STILL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT AT LEAST MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME.

WILL BE CONCERNED WITH MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AND TRAINING
ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING IF IT TRACKS OVER THE SAME SPOT. STILL TOO EARLY TO MENTION
IN THE HWO...BUT BEARS WATCHING. AS THE AIRMASS HEATS UP PRIOR TO
THIS...PLENTY OF FUEL TO ADD TO THE PROVERBIAL FIRE ONCE CONVECTION
TAKES PLACE...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT LEAST FRI-SAT TO SEE
SOME SVR STORM THREAT WITH DAMAGING WINDS. CURRENTLY SPC
HIGHLIGHTING LOW PREDICTABILITY GIVEN LACK OF SHEAR AND TIMING OF
THE WAVES.

MODELS DIFFER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH THE 00Z ECMWF FASTER
NOW WITH FROPA AND SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE EAST BY MONDAY. THIS
MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING INCONSISTENCY SO WILL LEAN TOWARD 00Z GFS/06Z
GFS AND WPC FORECAST. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE FRONT AND KEEP US IN A STICKY AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL BE STAYING
ABOVE NORMAL...ALTHOUGH BLOWOFF FROM CONVECTION UPSTREAM AND STORMS
OVERHEAD CAN HINDER THE HEAT. OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S...NEAR 70 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT MONDAY...

MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS FORECAST IN TERMS OF CONVECTION. ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA FORMING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ATTM...WILL
DRIFT EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THRU THIS AFTERNOON.
ATTM WE WILL HAVE VCTS AT BCB GIVEN THAT A FEW ECHOES ARE NOT FAR
FROM BCB ALTHOUGH THEY ARE NOT PRODUCING CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
YET. THINK THE THREAT LEAVES BCB BY 19Z...AND STAYS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ROANOKE TO KEEP THUNDER OUT ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE VCSH THERE FOR A
COUPLE HOURS.

DANVILLE ACTUALLY LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE PER MESOANALYSIS/RADAR
TRENDS AND HIGH-RES MODELS TO SEE CONVECTION NEARBY BY 20Z...AND
HAVE VCTS IN FOR NOW. THE WESTERN CWA APPEARS TO STAY OUT OF THE
SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH COULD SEE SOME ARRIVING AFTER
00Z..BUT TOO FAR AWAY TO HAVE IN THE TAFS AS MODELS SHOWING
WEAKENING TREND BY THEN.

OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN CU
IN THE 4-6KFT RANGE.

THIS EVENING CU WILL DISSIPATE LEAVING BEHIND A LITTLE CIRRUS.

FOG SHOULD FORM IN THE VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS OVERNIGHT WHICH
SHOULD AFFECT ALL BUT BLF/ROA. THINK LWB SHOULD DROP TO LIFR WITH
BCB AND POTENTIALLY LYH/DAN DROPPING BELOW 3SM.

ANY FOG CLEARS AFTER 13Z TUESDAY...LEAVING PRACTICALLY A REPEAT OF
TODAY...WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH AN EVER-INCREASING THREAT FOR DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MVFR BR TO LOCALLY LIFR
FG WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS FOLLOWING
EVENING CONVECTION.

BEST DAILY FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID TO LATE
MORNING AFTER FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF/LIFT...AND BEFORE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION REDEVELOPS.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO OFFER THE BEST CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES AND THEN STALLS OVER/NEAR THE AREA. THIS WILL PRESENT
AN INCREASING THREAT FOR ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
LOCATIONS      RECORDS

ROANOKE        96/1957
LYNCHBURG      96/1897
DANVILLE       98/1988
BLACKSBURG     88/1994
BLUEFIELD      87/1994
LEWISBURG      87/1994

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER AT MOUNT JEFFERSON IS NOT
BROADCASTING. THIS IS STATION WNG588 ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.525
MHZ. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED AND IT IS UNKNOWN WHEN IT WILL
BE FIXED...BUT EARLY ESTIMATES INDICATED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/WERT/WP
CLIMATE...WP
EQUIPMENT...WP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
343 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-171945-
SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
343 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF STORMS EACH DAY THIS WEEK...INCREASING
IN COVERAGE BY FRIDAY. EACH DAY...THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM...ALONG WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-WVZ042>045-171945-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-
MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-
BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
343 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF STORMS EACH DAY THIS WEEK...INCREASING
IN COVERAGE BY FRIDAY. EACH DAY...THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM...ALONG WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
531 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

VAZ044-058-162200-
HALIFAX VA-PITTSYLVANIA VA-
531 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  WEST CENTRAL HALIFAX COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  SOUTHEASTERN PITTSYLVANIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT

* AT 531 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR JAVA...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 20 MPH.

* PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
  STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  INGRAM...
  RIDGEWAY...
  KEELING...
  JAVA...
  AND ELMO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE WATER TO FLOW OVER THE ROADWAY. DO
NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE WHERE THE ROAD HAS BECOME FLOODED.

&&

LAT...LON 3667 7933 3688 7931 3689 7908 3665 7912
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 282DEG 16KT 3682 7928

PH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
533 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0456 PM     HAIL             YADKINVILLE             36.13N 80.66W
06/16/2014  E0.50 INCH       YADKIN             NC   PUBLIC

            TWO PERIODS OF PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL ALONG WITH 1.33
            INCHES OF RAIN IN 35 MINUES. REPORT VIA FACEBOOK.

&&

MBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
552 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

VAZ058-162230-
HALIFAX VA-
552 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN HALIFAX COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 630 PM EDT

* AT 552 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LEDA...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 10 MPH.

* PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
  STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  NATHALIE...
  LEDA...
  AND CODY.

LAT...LON 3681 7896 3681 7915 3683 7915 3702 7910
      3698 7893
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 283DEG 9KT 3691 7908

PH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
557 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             5 SW YADKINVILLE        36.07N 80.72W
06/16/2014  E1.25 INCH       YADKIN             NC   PUBLIC

            HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL ON BETHEL CHURCH ROAD. HAIL LASTED
            ABOUT 10 MINUTES.

&&

MBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
559 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SSE STUART            36.60N 80.27W
06/16/2014                   PATRICK            VA   PUBLIC

            WITT CREEK OVERFLOWED ITS BANKS AND FLOODED A PORTION OF
            ROUTE 8. THE CREEK RECEDED WITHIN ITS BANKS AT 430 PM.

&&

WHP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
621 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

VAZ058-059-162245-
HALIFAX VA-CHARLOTTE VA-
621 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN HALIFAX COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  SOUTHWESTERN CHARLOTTE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 645 PM EDT

* AT 621 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MT LAUREL...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 10
  MPH.

* DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
  STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  REDOAK...
  CLOVER...
  SAXE...
  DRAKES BRANCH...
  AND MT LAUREL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE WATER TO FLOW OVER THE ROADWAY. DO
NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE WHERE THE ROAD HAS BECOME FLOODED.

&&

LAT...LON 3683 7884 3698 7882 3701 7857 3675 7861
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 276DEG 7KT 3690 7879

PH