Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
149 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASINGLY WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL MAKE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH BY WEEKS
END RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1235 PM EDT MONDAY...

LOCAL WRF/HRRR AND NAM INITIATING CONVECTION BETWEEN NOW AND 18Z
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN AREAS EITHER SIDE. RADAR ALREADY
SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMING FROM GRANDFATHER MTN NC NORTH TO
NEAR CLAYTOR LAKE STATE PARK VA. FEEL THE COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERAL STORM
MOTION WEST TO EAST AT 15 TO 25 MPH. HEATING UP FASTER THAN
FORECAST...AND THINK WILL SEE THE TEMPS MAX OUT LOWER TO MID 90S
SOUTHEAST AND ROANOKE WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE MTNS.
RECORD HIGHS ACTUALLY MAY BE REACHED AT BLF/BCB/LWB IF
CLOUDS/STORMS DO NOT TAKE SHAPE SOON. THE PIEDMONT AND ROANOKE
RECORDS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...AND THINK THAT IS OUT OF
REACH TODAY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

WEAK WAVE ALOFT PASSES TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING SURFACE
RIDGING TO STRENGTHEN UNDER THE CORE OF THE 5H RIDGE BY MORNING.
EXPECT ANY EVENING CONVECTION TO FADE BY MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME
ISOLATED SHRA MAY LINGER NORTH AS THE IMPULSE PASSES. WILL AGAIN
BE QUITE WARM AND MUGGY WITH FOG AROUND ESPCLY WHERE ANY EARLIER
RAIN OCCURRED. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S WITH PERHAPS SOME SPOTS LIKE
BLF/ROA NOT DROPPING BELOW 70 PENDING EVENING RAINFALL ESPCLY IF
LIGHT MIXING PERSISTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL SLIDE EAST DURING THE PERIOD.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH CENTER WILL PUSH MOISTURE INTO
OUR AREA. CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FARTHEST FROM THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH AND IN THE BEST MOISTURE RETURN.

THE SWODY2 HAS PLACED THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. ALL THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE NORTHERN
STORM TRACK WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE DIURNAL CONVECTION INTO THURSDAY SHOULD DISSIPATE EACH EVENING
WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACTIVITY SURVIVING PAST MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND WARMER EACH DAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S. IN THE
PIEDMONT...SOME LOCATIONS MAY BE CLOSE TO 100. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK ACTIVE AS UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS WHILE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. STAYING CLOSE TO WHAT WE
FORECASTED YESTERDAY IN TERMS OF KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE...DUE TO TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES RACING ALONG THE SRN
EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. ALL IN ALL EVEN THOUGH WILL HAVE POPS NO
HIGHER THAN 50-55...STILL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT AT LEAST MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME.

WILL BE CONCERNED WITH MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AND TRAINING
ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING IF IT TRACKS OVER THE SAME SPOT. STILL TOO EARLY TO MENTION
IN THE HWO...BUT BEARS WATCHING. AS THE AIRMASS HEATS UP PRIOR TO
THIS...PLENTY OF FUEL TO ADD TO THE PROVERBIAL FIRE ONCE CONVECTION
TAKES PLACE...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT LEAST FRI-SAT TO SEE
SOME SVR STORM THREAT WITH DAMAGING WINDS. CURRENTLY SPC
HIGHLIGHTING LOW PREDICTABILITY GIVEN LACK OF SHEAR AND TIMING OF
THE WAVES.

MODELS DIFFER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH THE 00Z ECMWF FASTER
NOW WITH FROPA AND SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE EAST BY MONDAY. THIS
MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING INCONSISTENCY SO WILL LEAN TOWARD 00Z GFS/06Z
GFS AND WPC FORECAST. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE FRONT AND KEEP US IN A STICKY AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL BE STAYING
ABOVE NORMAL...ALTHOUGH BLOWOFF FROM CONVECTION UPSTREAM AND STORMS
OVERHEAD CAN HINDER THE HEAT. OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S...NEAR 70 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT MONDAY...

MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS FORECAST IN TERMS OF CONVECTION. ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA FORMING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ATTM...WILL
DRIFT EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THRU THIS AFTERNOON.
ATTM WE WILL HAVE VCTS AT BCB GIVEN THAT A FEW ECHOES ARE NOT FAR
FROM BCB ALTHOUGH THEY ARE NOT PRODUCING CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
YET. THINK THE THREAT LEAVES BCB BY 19Z...AND STAYS SOUTH AND EAST
OF ROANOKE TO KEEP THUNDER OUT ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE VCSH THERE FOR A
COUPLE HOURS.

DANVILLE ACTUALLY LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE PER MESOANALYSIS/RADAR
TRENDS AND HIGH-RES MODELS TO SEE CONVECTION NEARBY BY 20Z...AND
HAVE VCTS IN FOR NOW. THE WESTERN CWA APPEARS TO STAY OUT OF THE
SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH COULD SEE SOME ARRIVING AFTER
00Z..BUT TOO FAR AWAY TO HAVE IN THE TAFS AS MODELS SHOWING
WEAKENING TREND BY THEN.

OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN CU
IN THE 4-6KFT RANGE.

THIS EVENING CU WILL DISSIPATE LEAVING BEHIND A LITTLE CIRRUS.

FOG SHOULD FORM IN THE VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS OVERNIGHT WHICH
SHOULD AFFECT ALL BUT BLF/ROA. THINK LWB SHOULD DROP TO LIFR WITH
BCB AND POTENTIALLY LYH/DAN DROPPING BELOW 3SM.

ANY FOG CLEARS AFTER 13Z TUESDAY...LEAVING PRACTICALLY A REPEAT OF
TODAY...WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH AN EVER-INCREASING THREAT FOR DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MVFR BR TO LOCALLY LIFR
FG WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS FOLLOWING
EVENING CONVECTION.

BEST DAILY FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID TO LATE
MORNING AFTER FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF/LIFT...AND BEFORE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION REDEVELOPS.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO OFFER THE BEST CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES AND THEN STALLS OVER/NEAR THE AREA. THIS WILL PRESENT
AN INCREASING THREAT FOR ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
LOCATIONS      RECORDS

ROANOKE        96/1957
LYNCHBURG      96/1897
DANVILLE       98/1988
BLACKSBURG     88/1994
BLUEFIELD      87/1994
LEWISBURG      87/1994

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER AT MOUNT JEFFERSON IS NOT
BROADCASTING. THIS IS STATION WNG588 ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.525
MHZ. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED AND IT IS UNKNOWN WHEN IT WILL
BE FIXED...BUT EARLY ESTIMATES INDICATED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH/WERT/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/WERT/WP
CLIMATE...WP
EQUIPMENT...WP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
724 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

NCZ001>003-018>020-VAZ015>017-032-171130-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-
PATRICK-
724 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ004>006-VAZ007-009>014-018>020-022>024-033>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-171130-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-
MONTGOMERY-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-
BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
724 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
128 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

VAZ013-014-016-017-161815-
FLOYD VA-CARROLL VA-MONTGOMERY VA-PULASKI VA-
128 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  WESTERN FLOYD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...
  NORTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...
  SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...
  SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 215 PM EDT

* AT 125 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS A
  COUPLE OF SHOWERS FROM NEAR DUBLIN TO NEAR PATTERSON...MOVING TO
  THE EAST AT 15 MPH.

* WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS.

* THESE SHOWERS WILL INTENSIFY INTO THUNDERSTORMS SOON.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CLAYTOR LAKE AREA...
  PILOT...
  INDIAN VALLEY...
  WILLIS...
  CHILDRESS...
  AND COPPER VALLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF ON OR NEAR CLAYTOR...YOU SHOULD GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE
INSIDE. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSTORMS
SOON. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3685 8078 3688 8077 3688 8075 3690 8075
      3712 8063 3715 8018 3714 8018 3674 8047
TIME...MOT...LOC 1723Z 275DEG 11KT 3706 8066 3690 8078

WP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
217 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

NCZ003-020-161915-
SURRY NC-YADKIN NC-
217 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN SURRY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
  NORTH CENTRAL YADKIN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 315 PM EDT

* AT 216 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR STATE ROAD...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 15
  MPH.

* PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
  STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND
  ON ROADWAYS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  FAIRVIEW...
  LEVEL CROSS...
  BURCH...
  ROCKFORD...
  AND CRUTCHFIELD.

LAT...LON 3628 8087 3636 8085 3638 8056 3621 8060
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 278DEG 11KT 3632 8081

PH