Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
345 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE
AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT. UPPER DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE BOUNDARY MEANDERS OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

CLUSTERS OF STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST
ALONG THE EARLIER OUTFLOW THAT MOVED SE OUT OF THE APPALACHIANS.
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY OF 3K J/KG CAPE WILL LIKELY KEEP STORMS
GOING WITH PERHAPS COVERAGE SHIFTING BACK INTO THE SW WHERE BETTER
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING...AND OUT EAST AS
VORT TAIL WITH MVC PASSING NRN VA INTERACTS WITH THE CURRENT LEE
TROF. THUS WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING IN THESE SPOTS PRIMARILY
WHERE THE WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 10 PM. ELSW...ESPCLY FROM THE NEW
RIVER/ROA VALLEYS AND POINTS NORTH...EXPECT ONLY RENEWED SCATTERED
COVERAGE WHERE HAVE BEEN WORKED OVER OR CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY
LOW LEVEL WEST WINDS.

WEAK SURFACE COOL FRONT TO THE NORTH WORKS SOUTH INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND THEN STALLS OVER THE SW BY MORNING. GUIDANCE SHOWING
A BREAK IN COVERAGE BY MIDNIGHT AS THE WAVE TO THE NE EXITS BUT
EXPECT SOME LINGERING COVERAGE SW THIRD GIVEN THE FRONT NEARBY.
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL NE FLOW ALSO LIKELY TO BRING IN MORE
STABILITY AND PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS TO EASTERN SECTIONS LATE WHERE
CUT POPS TO ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING 30ISH SW. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S PENDING EARLIER RAINFALL WITH SOME
FOG AROUND.

BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OUT FRIDAY MORNING BUT THEN STARTS TO
LIFT BACK NE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
WAVE TO THE NW. LATEST MODELS SHOWING A DECENT SWATH OF SHRA/TSRA
WESTERN HALF IN THE AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE SPREADING EAST DESPITE
LACK OF DEEP INSTABILITY ESPCLY OFF THE NAM. WILL GROUP HIGHER
LIKELY POPS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD WHILE KEEPING CHANCE COVERAGE
BLUE RIDGE EAST WHERE MAY BE IN A WEAK WEDGE SETUP UNTIL LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. WENT CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET MOS TEMPS
FOR HIGHS AS THINK MANY SPOTS WILL HAVE MORE CLOUD COVER TO INIT
THAN SEEN IN RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER STILL 80S MOST LOCATIONS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST FRIDAY
EVENING...MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST. THE
MOVEMENT OF THESE RIDGES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLOW MOVING MESOSCALE
COMPLEX TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE COMMON WEALTH OF
VIRGINIA. AT THIS TIME...BULK OF THE STRONG DYNAMICS TRACKS FROM
WEST-CENTRAL VIRGINIA (HIGHLAND COUNTY) AT 06Z SATURDAY CURVING
SOUTHEAST TO NORFOLK VA BY 18Z SATURDAY. THE TRACK OF THIS
DISTURBANCE REMAINS ALONG THE THETA-E BOUNDARY BUT DIFFERS BETWEEN
MODELS. IF THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKS ALONG SAID COURSE...POINTS NORTH
OF THE VA/NC BORDER WILL EXPERIENCE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AREAS SOUTH WILL SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
STRONGER STORMS NOT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AN OVERNIGHT CROSSING OF THIS STORM FAVORS THE AREA FOR
LESS OF A WIDESPREAD EVENT WITH LOSS OF HEATING...HOWEVER
INSTABILITIES AND DYNAMICS STILL EXISTS FOR A BUSY WEATHER PERIOD.
SPC DOES NOT HAVE THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...BUT THAT COULD CHANCE
IF MODEL TRACK CONTINUES FOLLOWING LATEST TRENDS. ONCE THIS
DISTURBANCE EXITS THE AREA...A SLIGHT COOLER AND DRY AIRMASS WILL
TEMPORARY BUILD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE DISTURBANCE AND ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MUGGY WITH READINGS IN THE M60S TO L70S. DEPENDING ON
THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...LIKELY TO
SEE HIGHS IN THE L/M 80S POSSIBLY L90S ACROSS NW NC.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

ONCE THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY DISTURBANCE TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA...NORTHERLY FLOW AND LESS INSTABILITIES SHOULD LEAD TO A MOSTLY
QUITE DAY SUNDAY. IF THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKS FARTHER NORTH
SATURDAY...AREAS NOT SEEING CONVECTION SATURDAY WILL LIKELY HAVE
PULSE CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION
POSSIBILITIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE FROM A LINE FROM BLUEFIELD WV
TO WEST JEFFERSON NC SOUTHWEST. THIS LINE MAY BE EXTENDED TO
DANVILLE VA DEPENDING ON THE OUTCOME SATURDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY MAY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS ONGOING INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY FOR PULSE STORM WITH THE PRIMARY
FOCUS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY COULD BE A MIX OF CONVECTION
FROM PULSE STORMS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON TRANSITIONING TO PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION IN THE EARLY EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ON
WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE BEST
AREAL COVERAGE OF THE STRONGER STORMS BEING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THE
COLD FRONT MAY WASHOUT OR STALL WITH THE DEW POINT FRONT HANGING
BACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. UNDER HEATING...SCATTERED CONVECTION
MAY FIRE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE VA/NC BORDER.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT THURSDAY...

CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPILL EAST
ALONG THE KLWB-KLYH CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDED
DEVELOPMENT ONGOING DOWN THE WESTERN SLOPES TO THE WEST OF KMKJ.
EXPECT THIS TO KEEP PERIODS OF MVFR AT KLWB OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO WITH PERHAPS BRIEF IFR IF A HEAVIER TSRA CROSSES DIRECTLY OVER
THE AIRPORT. SHOULD SEE MOST OF THIS COVERAGE SHIFT SE OF KLWB BY
20Z/4PM. THEN EXPECT STORMS TO FILL IN OUT EAST WITH ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY AROUND KBLF WITH SOME OF THIS
SPREADING EAST TO NEAR KBCB/KROA BEFORE WEAKENING GIVEN THE STRONG
WEST WINDS ATTM. TSRA MAY TEND TO JUMP THE BLUE RIDGE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OVER THE PIEDMONT ESPCLY AROUND
KDAN ONCE THE DOWNSLOPE WEAKENS A BIT LATER ON. THUS HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCLUDING A PREVAILING PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHRA/TSRA WHERE ALREADY ONGOING OR APPROACHING AND VCTS ELSW UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY.

A BACKDOOR FRONT DIPS SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE MASON-DIXON
LINE TONIGHT WHICH WILL INCREASE THE RANGE OF STORMS INTO MORE
SCATTERED AND MULTICELLULAR THIS EVENING ESPCLY SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS. MODELS ARE BRINGING MVFR TO IFR CLOUDS AND FOG
INTO THE FORECAST AREA NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DRIER AIR COMING IN AT MID AND HIGH LEVELS WHILE
THE NAM LOWERS MOST CIGS TO IFR/MVFR IN LOW LEVEL NE FLOW BY
MORNING. THINK THIS MAY BE OVERDONE GIVEN SLOWNESS OF THE BOUNDARY
BUT A PERIOD OF LOW CIGS POSSIBLE KLWB EAST TO ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE BY DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.

BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO GET PUSHED INTO THE FAR SW
SECTIONS FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE STARTS TO SHIFT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT INSTABILITY MAY BE MUCH LESS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH ADDED CONVECTION LIKELY FAR WEST AND NOT INCREASING UNTIL THE
EAST. OTRW THE MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY WILL BE WITH HOW FAST
CONDITIONS TURN VFR AS IF MORE FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT THEN
COULD BE LOCKED INTO AT LEAST MVFR OVER THE EAST UNTIL MIDDAY OR
SO.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FRONT AND DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHOULD PRODUCE BETTER COVERAGE
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK FLOW PATTERN HOLDING OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
KEEP THE STORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING
SAT/SUN BUT COVERAGE FOR NOW LOOKS A BIT LESS EACH DAY BEHIND THE
PASSING IMPULSE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO RETURN
NORTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS ON MONDAY.

AREAS OF IFR FOG REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON. THE
MOST OPTIMAL FLIGHT CONDITIONS EACH DAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
LATE MORNING AFTER FOG/LOW CLOUDS LIFT AND BURN OFF...AND BEFORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION REDEVELOPS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/JH/PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
350 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

NCZ004>006-VAZ032>034-043>047-058-059-202000-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-HENRY-
PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
350 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 334 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

NCZ001>003-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-035-WVZ042>045-202000-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-
GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-AMHERST-MERCER-
SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
350 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO
THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
403 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0211 PM     HAIL             5 ESE DOBSON            36.36N 80.65W
06/19/2014  E0.25 INCH       SURRY              NC   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL NEAR DOBSON. TIME FROM RADAR.

0257 PM     HAIL             4 SSE EAST BEND         36.17N 80.49W
06/19/2014  E1.00 INCH       YADKIN             NC   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON HENNINGS ROAD. TIME FROM RADAR.

&&

MBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
441 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ESE BLAIRS            36.67N 79.32W
06/19/2014                   PITTSYLVANIA       VA   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN ON KENTUCK ROAD. TIME FROM RADAR.

&&

MBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
452 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

VAZ012-015-016-192145-
GRAYSON VA-CARROLL VA-WYTHE VA-
452 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN GRAYSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...
  SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...
  SOUTH CENTRAL WYTHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 545 PM EDT

* AT 452 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR IVANHOE...MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 10
  MPH.

* DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
  STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GALAX CITY...
  FRIES...
  COLEMAN STORE...
  GALAX HILLSVILLE AIRPORT...
  AND WOODLAWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY...SO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TELEVISION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS...FROM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3682 8109 3689 8099 3674 8072 3660 8097
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 320DEG 10KT 3681 8100

16

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
454 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 PM     HAIL             WILKESBORO              36.14N 81.16W
06/19/2014  E0.50 INCH       WILKES             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT OF A LOT OF DIME SIZE HAIL

&&

MBS

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