Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
442 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ROUNDS OF STORMS/SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT. LOWER CHANCES/DRIER SATURDAY.
MOISTURE DEPTH RETURNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH INCREASED CONVECTION
COVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LEFT OVER BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE AND MOVE WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL SWING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AS WELL
KEEPING CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BE FOR
FINALLY EXITING LATER SATURDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN
PRODUCING A QUICK 0.50 TO AN INCH IN AN HOUR AND IF ANY OF THESE
STORMS BECOME REPETITIVE OVER THE SAME AREA WE COULD SEE SOME
FLOODING PROBLEMS. THEREFORE KEEPING FFA GOING.

TRICKY FORECAST FORE THE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. FIGURING WHERE THE
RAIN FELL AND WHERE THE CLOUDS THIN...WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FOG TO FORM.

SYSTEM EXITS SATURDAY WITH DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE CWA.
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS WELL. TEMPS WILL BE
TRICKY WITH CLOUDS DECREASING. GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MUCH QUIETER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD VERSUS PREVIOUS DAYS. ANY
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT THE OUTSET 00Z SUN WILL BE QUICKLY DISSIPATING
BY 03Z SUN...IF NOT SOONER. EXPECT A DRY BUT FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MINS IN THE LOW/MID
60S FOR THE LOWLANDS. SUNDAY MORNING ONE RIPPLE IN THE FLOW ALOFT
PASSES BY THE SOUTHWEST ZONES BTWN 12Z-15Z ROUGHLY. LIMITED MOISTURE
ACCOMPANYING IT HOWEVER SO KEPT THE SOUTHWEST ZONES DRY EARLY SUN.
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE HOWEVER TO BROADBRUSH THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY SUN AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED INHERITED LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES AS
ANOTHER WEAKER RIPPLE BRINGS A FAIR AMOUNT OF LARGE SCALE LIFT OVER
THAT AREA. SOME SFC CONVERGENCE IS NOTED FURTHER WEST OVER
WEST/CENTRAL OHIO...AND WITH CONVECTIVE MOTION TO THE E/NE ITS
POSSIBLE ONE OF THOSE COULD MAKE IT INTO OUR SE OHIO ZONES.
INHERITED MAX TEMPS LOW/MID 80S LOWLANDS STILL APPEAR ON TRACK.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT
OVER THE NW ZONES WITH ANOTHER PROGGED VORT MAX IN THAT AREA.
MONDAY...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR WEST. RUN TO RUN COMPS SHOW
THIS TO BE MORE AMPLIFIED/ROBUST VERSUS PREV RUNS. EXPECTING MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AREA AND DID ELECT TO WARM MAX
TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES. WITH 925MB TEMPS PROGGED ~24C-25C...EXPECT
GENERAL UPPER 80S FOR THE LOWLANDS. SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN
STORE AGAIN...THOUGH MOST FOLKS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. OPERATIONAL
EXTENDED MODEL OUTPUT COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING A S/W
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE TUE EVE - WED MORNING TIME
FRAME...WITH DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND DETAIL. HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO GO AHEAD AND RAISE POPS TO LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT
ROUGHLY FOR THE LOCATIONS WHERE THE LATEST GFS/EC ARE IN OVERLAPPING
AGREEMENT. TIMING THIS FAR OUT IN ADVANCE NOTWITHSTANDING...BELIEVE
THAT SOMETIME BTWN TUE EVE AND WED MORNING MOST AREAS STAND A
REASONABLY GOOD SHOT AT SEEING SOME PRECIP OVER THE COURSE OF THAT
TIME FRAME. BEYOND THAT PERIOD LARGER DIFFS BEGIN TO ARISE AND HAVE
CONTINUED LOW TO MID CHANCE POPS WITH A MAINLY DIURNAL TREND AS MEAN
LONGWAVE TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THRU 18Z SATURDAY...
TRICKY FORECAST FOR TAFS WITH CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE REGION.
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE NORM IN AND NEAR THE STORMS.
WIND GUSTS 30-40MPH POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL. THESE STORMS WILL
BE AROUND THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE
DECREASING IN COVERAGE BY 06Z. MVFR/IFR/LIFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN
FOG...MAINLY BETWEEN 08Z-12Z.  AFTER 13Z VSBYS IMPROVE TO VFR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION COULD VARY.
TIMING AND LOCATION OF FOG OR STRATUS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     026>032-036>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JS/50
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
453 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>010-013>019-026>029-
036-037-212100-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-
JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-
RITCHIE-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-
453 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

VAZ003-004-WVZ024-025-033>035-212100-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-MINGO-LOGAN-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-
453 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ALSO...ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE
NECESSARY IF THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT INCREASES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WVZ011-020-030>032-038>040-046-047-212100-
TYLER-DODDRIDGE-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-
POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
453 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

50

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
412 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

OHZ066-202045-
PERRY OH-
412 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SOUTHERN PERRY COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM
EDT...

AT 409 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST
OF SHAWNEE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL
CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS. EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY
IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...
MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR NEW STRAITSVILLE AROUND 425 PM.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER ON COUNTRY ROADS AND
FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

YOU MAY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY POSTING YOUR REPORT TO THE
CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR
BY USING THE TWITTER HASHTAG...NWSRLX.

LAT...LON 3956 8212 3955 8213 3955 8216 3955 8226
      3959 8227 3959 8238 3961 8239 3970 8238
      3972 8234

30

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
430 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

OHZ083-085>087-202100-
GALLIA OH-JACKSON OH-LAWRENCE OH-MEIGS OH-
430 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN VINTON...WESTERN
MEIGS...CENTRAL LAWRENCE...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON AND GALLIA COUNTIES
IN SOUTHEAST OHIO UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 428 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM 5
MILES NORTHEAST OF OAK HILL TO 9 MILES SOUTH OF OAK HILL TO 5 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE VESUVIUS...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS
AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS. EXPECT INTENSE
LIGHTNING FROM THESE STORMS. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER
UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A
THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR GAGE AROUND 440 PM...VINTON AROUND 445
PM...SALEM CENTER AROUND 450 PM AND GALLIPOLIS AROUND 500 PM.

YOU MAY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY POSTING YOUR REPORT TO THE
CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR
BY USING THE TWITTER HASHTAG...NWSRLX.

LAT...LON 3875 8260 3902 8256 3904 8244 3903 8233
      3906 8231 3909 8215 3881 8219 3879 8222
      3877 8222 3873 8219 3862 8219 3855 8264

30

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
501 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             3 NE SHAWNEE            39.64N  82.17W
06/20/2014  E1.00 INCH       PERRY              OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1401049

ARB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
519 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STOCKPORT               39.55N  81.80W
06/20/2014                   MORGAN             OH   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1401050

ARB

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