Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Charleston, WV

266 
WWUS51 KRLX 072131
SVSRLX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
531 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014

KYC019-043-089-127-072145-
/O.CON.KRLX.SV.W.0093.000000T0000Z-141007T2145Z/
LAWRENCE KY-BOYD KY-CARTER KY-GREENUP KY-
531 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN GREENUP...EASTERN CARTER...BOYD AND NORTHERN
LAWRENCE COUNTIES IN KENTUCKY...

AT 530 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM COALTON TO HITCHINS TO GRAYSON LAKE STATE
PARK...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES EAST OF GRAYSON TO
GRAYSON TO GRAYSON LAKE STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RUSH...
WILLARD...PRINCESS...SUMMIT...GARNER...WEBBVILLE...CANNONSBURG...
WESTWOOD...MAVITY...ASHLAND...BUCHANAN...FALLSBURG...DURBIN...
BURNAUGH AND YATESVILLE LAKE STATE PARK

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...I-64 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
167 AND 191 IN KENTUCKY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST OHIO AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...800-401-9535...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

YOU MAY ALSO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER BY POSTING YOUR REPORT TO THE
CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR
BY USING THE TWITTER HASHTAG...NWSRLX.

&&

LAT...LON 3840 8301 3849 8294 3848 8262 3826 8257
      3824 8261 3819 8260 3817 8264 3814 8264
      3807 8257 3812 8291 3817 8292 3817 8298
      3819 8302 3823 8306
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 281DEG 48KT 3836 8280 3828 8286
          3820 8295

$$

14

316 
WWUS51 KRLX 072147
SVSRLX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
547 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014

KYC019-043-089-127-072156-
/O.EXP.KRLX.SV.W.0093.000000T0000Z-141007T2145Z/
LAWRENCE KY-BOYD KY-CARTER KY-GREENUP KY-
547 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN GREENUP...EASTERN
CARTER...BOYD AND NORTHERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES IN KENTUCKY HAS
EXPIRED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR 
PROPERTY.  STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST OHIO AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...800-401-9535...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

YOU MAY ALSO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER BY POSTING YOUR REPORT TO THE
CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR
BY USING THE TWITTER HASHTAG...NWSRLX.

LAT...LON 3840 8301 3849 8294 3848 8262 3826 8257
      3824 8261 3819 8260 3817 8264 3814 8264
      3807 8257 3812 8291 3817 8292 3817 8298
      3819 8302 3823 8306
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 281DEG 48KT 3836 8282 3828 8288
          3820 8297

$$

12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
142 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG DISTURBANCE WHIPS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH WEAK COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY IN FAST ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING.  VAD WINDS NEAR 1730Z AROUND 35 KNOTS AT
850 MBS AT RLX AND ILN.  850 MB JET MAX OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS WHIPS
THROUGH AHEAD OF STRONG MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE MID LEVEL AT 500
MB VORT MAXIMUM SWINGS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z ACROSS NRN WV.

STRONG HELOCITY IN THE 400 TO 500 RANGE IN THE FIRST 2 TO 3
KIOMETERS. IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH SOUTH WINDS VEERING. SO CELLS WILL
LIKELY SHOW LOW LEVEL ROTATION. YET BOUYANCY IS LIMITED.

KEEPING POPS IN THE 60 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING.

HAVE SURFACE FRONT PASSING 03Z TO 06Z...WITH CLEARING IN ITS WAKE.
DID HOLD ONTO SOME LOWER CLOUDS.  STILL THINKING WINDS SUFFICIENT TO
PREVENT MUCH FOG AT DAWN...JUST A BIT IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS IN SRN
WV S OF CRW.

STILL PLEASANT DAY PICTURED ON WEDNESDAY.  NO MAJOR CHANGES IN
TEMPEATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ACTIVE WEATHER HOWEVER WILL
RETURN LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE
REGION. THIS...ALONG WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT...WILL TRIGGER ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH ANY STORMS.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN MODELS CONCERNING PLACEMENT OF
FRONT/TRACK OF WAVES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CONTINUED TO LEAN MORE
TOWARDS THE ECMWF/HPC SOLUN...KEEPING HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS.  PERIOD WILL START WITH
FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH.  THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG MID LEVEL 500 MB DISTURBANCE WHIPS THROUGH 00Z TO 03Z
WEDNESDAY/THIS EVENING.  850 MB FLOW JET MAX OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE.  VERRING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME
CONVECTIVE CELLS TO BE ROTATING.

STILL EXPECTED WIDESPREAD FAST MOVING CONVECTION TO PEAK DURING THE
21Z TO 01Z...THEN WANE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY 06Z.

WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 2 TO 3 THSD FT AND VSBY AOB 3 MILES IN ANY
CONVECTION.   SOME CEILINGS 1 TO 2 THSD FT LINGERING OVER MOUNTAINS
IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE EXPECT DRIER AIR TO QUICKLY CHARGE OUR WAY WITH MAINLY
SCATTERED CLOUDS 12Z TO 18Z.  EXPECT LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD PREDAWN FOG.  SOME OF THE DEEPER
VALLEYS IN SOUTHERN WV MAY HAVE SOME LOCAL VALLEY FOG NEAR DAWN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: AREAL COVERAGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS ALONG AND IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT AFTER 00Z COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JSH/KTB/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...KTB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
205 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>010-013>019-024>027-
081815-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-
JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-
RITCHIE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-
205 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014

...TORNADO WATCH 523 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

VAZ003-004-WVZ011-020-028>040-046-047-081815-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-TYLER-DODDRIDGE-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-
TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-
BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
205 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.