Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
337 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NEXT SYSTEM SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
245 PM UPDATE...

FRESHENED UP GRIDS TO REFLECT TORNADO WATCH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
STILL VALID CONCERNING FORECAST THINKING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

VERY BUSY SHIFT HERE THIS MORNING. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING
HARD TO DISCERN ACROSS CWA BUT FEEL IT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
ACROSS S OH INTO C WV PER LATEST RUC LOW LEVEL THETA E AXIS.
BEGINNING TO SEE CONVECTION FIRE ALONG GRADIENT AND BECOMING SFC
BASED. THIS WILL SLIDE INTO PORTIONS OF SE OH/NE KY AND W WV OVER
THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH ISOLATED SVR THREAT ON COLD POOL PROPAGATION.

COMPLICATED FORECAST HEADING INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BLOWOFF FROM DECAYING MCS OVER W KY THIS MORNING WITH MORE IN THE
WAY OF SFC HEATING C AND E KY INTO WV TO AID IN INSTABILITY. FEEL
THE RAP/HRRR HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THINGS AND USED THESE AS A BASE
FOR THE FORECAST. THINKING A FEW ROUNDS DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHOW ALONG VORT LOBE...SLATED 21 TO 01Z TIME FRAME. SEE SPC TXT FOR
A MORE TECHNICAL DISCUSSION REGARDING SLIGHT RISK AND SVR THREAT
OVER E OH/E KY AND C WV AS WE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR
ASSESSMENT.

GIVEN HIGH PWATS AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING THIS EVE AND IN
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR NE KY/C AND S WV/SE OH UNTIL 09Z...ESSENTIALLY FOLLOWING OUTLINE
OF MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ISSUED EARLIER BY WPC.

HAVE FRONT SAGGING S THRU AREA OVERNIGHT AND SLOWING SOME ON
THURSDAY BUT SHOULD STILL BE SW OF AREA FOR TOMORROW WITH SOME FRESH
AIR TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE N.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE STORMS THIS PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CANADA NOSES SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA WITH DRIER AND
COOLER AIR. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA THERE APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPPER DYNAMICS TO SQUEEZE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS FAR SOUTH FRIDAY. CHOSE A MIDDLE OF ROAD SCENARIO AS
SOME MODELS KEEP RAIN SOUTH OF US...WHILE OTHER BRING RAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. LOOK FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WITH A WARMING TREND SATURDAY UNDER LOTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOLLOWED HPC THINKING ON A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN AS THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES ALOFT RETURN OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. THIS WILL ALLOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MEANDER NORTH AND SOUTH
THROUGH OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PERHAPS BY
TUESDAY...THE FRONT MAY DRIFT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ALLOW SOME COOLER
AND DRIER AIR AT LEAST ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT CONVECTION WITH GREATER COVERAGE IN THE 21 TO 00Z TIME FRAME
WITH SOME STORMS STRONG TO SVR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...PARTICULARLY
FOR THE S TAF SITES TO INCLUDE KHTS/KCRW/KBKW. HAVE SOME 1 TO 2 HR
IFR TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTION WITH SOME GUSTS FOR
KHTS/KCRW. HAVE SOME MVFR/IFR NORTHERN SITES FOR MAINLY DOWNPOURS
WITH THINKING MOST OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS ACROSS S TERMINALS.

SOME STRATUS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR VSBY FG
BUT FLOW SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FG. FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES
OVERNIGHT...TAKING INTO MORNING TO CLEAR SW VA. ANY LOW STRATUS WILL
QUICKLY SCT OUT IN THE MORNING WITH SCT TO BKN FLAT LOW END VFR CU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DEGREE OF IMPACTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS
COULD VARY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  IF A LARGE BOWING LINE DEVELOPS
LATER TODAY...THAT WOULD LIKELY SPEED UP THE TIMING...ESPECIALLY
DOWNSTREAM...AS WELL AS INCREASE THE WIND THREAT.  TIMING AND EXTENT
OF POST RAIN FOG AND STRATUS WILL VARY LATE TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>008-013>018-
     024>029.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMV/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
306 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ083-086-087-WVZ005>008-013>017-024>026-051915-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-JACKSON OH-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-MINGO-
LOGAN-BOONE-
306 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH 218 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ066-067-075-076-WVZ009>011-019-020-030>032-035>040-046-047-051915-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-RITCHIE-
DODDRIDGE-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-
UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
306 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO...CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ084-085-WVZ018-027>029-051915-
VINTON-MEIGS-CALHOUN-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-
306 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO AND CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ003-004-WVZ033-034-051915-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-
306 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

...TORNADO WATCH 218 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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