Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Charleston, WV

626 
WWUS51 KRLX 210627
SVSRLX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
127 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

KYC127-WVC099-210645-
/O.CON.KRLX.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-140221T0645Z/
LAWRENCE KY-WAYNE WV-
127 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 AM EST
FOR EASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN KENTUCKY...AND WAYNE COUNTY IN WEST
VIRGINIA...

AT 124 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR 
CLIFFORD...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF LOUISA...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
LOCKWOOD...DUNLOW...CENTERVILLE...GENOA...CEREDO...WILSONDALE...
WAYNE...EAST LYNN LAKE...EAST LYNN...LAVALETTE...KIAHSVILLE AND BEECH
FORK STATE PARK

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...I-64 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
3 AND 5 IN WEST VIRGINIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM EST FRIDAY
MORNING FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST OHIO AND CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...800-401-9535...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

YOU MAY ALSO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER BY POSTING YOUR REPORT TO THE
CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR
BY USING THE TWITTER HASHTAG...NWSRLX.

&&

LAT...LON 3826 8257 3840 8256 3840 8249 3831 8235
      3831 8228 3827 8231 3824 8230 3822 8226
      3814 8228 3805 8219 3792 8233 3790 8248
      3795 8252 3795 8256 3788 8265 3792 8274
TIME...MOT...LOC 0627Z 250DEG 44KT 3801 8252

$$

08

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
918 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO PREDAWN.
WINDY AND COLDER FRIDAY. WEAK SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINTER REMAINS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR 02Z FRIDAY...FRONT W OF SDF AND NEARING CKV IN KY...AND NEARING
MKL IN TN.  WITH 500 MB TROF TAKING ON A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT
OVERNIGHT...WILL TRY TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AN HOUR OR SO.
HAVE FRONT NEAR CRW AROUND 09Z-10Z.

AS A RESULT...WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS HIGHER
LONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

DESPITE THE FAST FLOW...STILL CONCERNED ABOUT WATER...EVEN WHERE THE
SNOW IS LONG GONE...IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.  OF COURSE...THE
DEEPEST SNOW PACK STILL OVER THE HEADWATERS OF THE CHEAT...THE
TYGART VALLEY...INCLUDING ITS MIDDLE FORK...AND THE BUCKHANNON.

WILL HAVE EXTRA STAFFING OVERNIGHT NOT ONLY TO MONITOR
CONVECTION...BUT RAINFALL...AND IF ANY SHOWERS SET UP ALONG THAT
FAST FLOW.  SO ALL OUR ATTENTION IS NOT ON THE GUSTY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR WIND. COULD NOT RULE OUT EITHER
SHORT FUSE FLOOD WATCHES OR FLOOD WARNINGS.

STRONGEST PRESSURES RISES ON THE ORDER OF 8 TO 10 MB/3 HOURS IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT. SO WILL HOLD ONTO STRONG GUSTY WINDS
IN THE MORNING.  SLOWLY DIMINISH GUSTS SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE MID
AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH...WITH A VERY BROAD UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
OVER MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. 12Z MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...HOWEVER A GOOD BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE
NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP...WITH THE GFS POINTING TO
VERY LITTLE PRECIP AND ECMWF IN THE MIDDLE. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW. TEMPS DROPPING THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO MAY INITIALLY START
OUT AS LIGHT RAIN...THEN CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW AS THE NIGHT GOES
ON...ESPECIALLY NORTH. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING LATE
SUNDAY...GFS/ECMWF IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH PRECIP APPROACHING FROM
WEST...WHILE NAM IS AN OUTLIER WITH A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. FOR NOW
SIDED WITH THE GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK SYSTEM WILL PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH A SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SO WILL INCREASE
POPS SOME. EVEN COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SO LEFT
SOME UPSLOPE SNOW INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT STILL LOTS OF DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DID HAVE WINDS LAYING DOWN BRIEFLY THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME LOCAL LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR BEFORE SURFACE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN.

NO MAJOR TIME CHANGES ON THE FRONTAL CONVECTION.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...HELD ONTO SOME STRONGER GUSTS IN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES OF ABOUT 8 MB/3 HOURS.  THIS
WOULD AFFECT EARLY MORNING FLIGHTS AROUND 10-14Z. ALSO TRIED TO DROP
CEILINGS FOR A FEW HOURS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...BEFORE LIFTING.
POST FRONTAL CLOUDS SCATTER OUT IN THE SOUTH...BUT MAY HOLD WITH A
BROKEN CEILINGS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AFTER
18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION LINE AND FRONT MAY VARY
BY AN HOUR OR TWO. THIS COULD HAVE LARGE IMPACTS ON THE TAF GIVEN
THE SHORT DURATION OF THE CONVECTION.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       FRI 02/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EST 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...KTB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1215 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

WVZ010-018-019-220515-
PLEASANTS-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-
1215 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 20 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

ALSO...WITH THE RECENT SNOW MELT...SWOLLEN SMALL STREAMS...AND
WET SOILS...RAINFALL OVERNIGHT COULD PRODUCE FLOODING. IF THAT
THREAT INCREASES...A FLOOD WATCH WOULD BE POSTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

ALSO...WITH THE RECENT SNOW MELT...SWOLLEN SMALL STREAMS...AND
WET SOILS...RAINFALL OVERNIGHT COULD PRODUCE FLOODING FRIDAY. IF
THAT THREAT INCREASES...A FLOOD WATCH WOULD BE POSTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WVZ011-020-027>032-037>040-046-047-220515-
TYLER-DODDRIDGE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-NICHOLAS-
WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
1215 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

ALSO...WITH THE RECENT SNOW MELT...SWOLLEN SMALL STREAMS...AND
WET SOILS...RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLOODING OVERNIGHT. IF THAT
THREAT INCREASES...A FLOOD WATCH WOULD BE POSTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

ALSO...WITH THE RECENT SNOW MELT...SWOLLEN SMALL STREAMS...AND
WET SOILS...RAINFALL OVERNIGHT COULD PRODUCE FLOODING FRIDAY. IF
THAT THREAT INCREASES...A FLOOD WATCH WOULD BE POSTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>009-013>017-024>026-
220515-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-
JACKSON WV-WOOD-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-
1215 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 20 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

ALSO...WITH THE RECENT SNOW MELT...SWOLLEN SMALL STREAMS...AND
WET SOILS...RAINFALL OVERNIGHT COULD PRODUCE FLOODING. IF THAT
THREAT INCREASES...A FLOOD WATCH WOULD BE POSTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

ALSO...WITH THE RECENT SNOW MELT...SWOLLEN SMALL STREAMS...AND
WET SOILS...RAINFALL OVERNIGHT COULD PRODUCE FLOODING FRIDAY. IF
THAT THREAT INCREASES...A FLOOD WATCH WOULD BE POSTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

VAZ003-004-WVZ033>036-220515-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
1215 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

ALSO...WITH THE RECENT SNOW MELT...SWOLLEN SMALL STREAMS...AND
WET SOILS...RAINFALL OVERNIGHT COULD PRODUCE FLOODING. IF THAT
THREAT INCREASES...A FLOOD WATCH WOULD BE POSTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

ALSO...WITH THE RECENT SNOW MELT...SWOLLEN SMALL STREAMS...AND
WET SOILS...RAINFALL OVERNIGHT COULD PRODUCE FLOODING FRIDAY. IF
THAT THREAT INCREASES...A FLOOD WATCH WOULD BE POSTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

TRM