Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Charleston, WV

576 
WWUS51 KRLX 210537
SVSRLX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1237 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

KYC019-043-089-OHC087-WVC099-210600-
/O.CON.KRLX.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140221T0600Z/
BOYD KY-CARTER KY-GREENUP KY-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE WV-
1237 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EST
FOR GREENUP...CARTER AND BOYD COUNTIES IN KENTUCKY...AND WEST CENTRAL
LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND NORTHWESTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN
WEST VIRGINIA...

AT 1228 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GESLING...OR NEAR
CARTER CAVES STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BRUSHART...GRAYSON...HITCHINS...WARNOCK...WILLARD...LETITIA...LOAD...
HOPEWELL...DENTON...OLDTOWN...SOUTH SHORE...GREENBO LAKE...GRAYS
BRANCH...SUMMIT...LOCKWOOD...MAVITY...RUSH...PRINCESS...NAPLES...
DURBIN...COALTON...BURNAUGH...WURTLAND...WORTHINGTON...WESTWOOD...
RUSSELL...RACELAND...GREENUP...GARNER...FLATWOODS...CATLETTSBURG...
CANNONSBURG...BELLEFONTE...ASHLAND...IRONTON AND HANGING ROCK

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...I-64 BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 149 AND 191 IN KENTUCKY...AND NEAR MILE MARKER 1 IN WEST
VIRGINIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM EST FRIDAY
MORNING FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST OHIO AND CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...800-401-9535...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

YOU MAY ALSO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER BY POSTING YOUR REPORT TO THE
CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR
BY USING THE TWITTER HASHTAG...NWSRLX.

&&

LAT...LON 3834 8324 3842 8324 3872 8303 3876 8289
      3859 8284 3858 8282 3860 8275 3867 8276
      3832 8253 3816 8261 3816 8264 3819 8260
      3827 8263 3825 8279 3817 8292 3818 8306
      3826 8316 3819 8327 3821 8331 3832 8334
TIME...MOT...LOC 0534Z 258DEG 21KT 3842 8307

$$

15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
918 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO PREDAWN.
WINDY AND COLDER FRIDAY. WEAK SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINTER REMAINS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR 02Z FRIDAY...FRONT W OF SDF AND NEARING CKV IN KY...AND NEARING
MKL IN TN.  WITH 500 MB TROF TAKING ON A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT
OVERNIGHT...WILL TRY TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AN HOUR OR SO.
HAVE FRONT NEAR CRW AROUND 09Z-10Z.

AS A RESULT...WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS HIGHER
LONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

DESPITE THE FAST FLOW...STILL CONCERNED ABOUT WATER...EVEN WHERE THE
SNOW IS LONG GONE...IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.  OF COURSE...THE
DEEPEST SNOW PACK STILL OVER THE HEADWATERS OF THE CHEAT...THE
TYGART VALLEY...INCLUDING ITS MIDDLE FORK...AND THE BUCKHANNON.

WILL HAVE EXTRA STAFFING OVERNIGHT NOT ONLY TO MONITOR
CONVECTION...BUT RAINFALL...AND IF ANY SHOWERS SET UP ALONG THAT
FAST FLOW.  SO ALL OUR ATTENTION IS NOT ON THE GUSTY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR WIND. COULD NOT RULE OUT EITHER
SHORT FUSE FLOOD WATCHES OR FLOOD WARNINGS.

STRONGEST PRESSURES RISES ON THE ORDER OF 8 TO 10 MB/3 HOURS IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT. SO WILL HOLD ONTO STRONG GUSTY WINDS
IN THE MORNING.  SLOWLY DIMINISH GUSTS SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE MID
AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH...WITH A VERY BROAD UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
OVER MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. 12Z MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...HOWEVER A GOOD BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE
NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP...WITH THE GFS POINTING TO
VERY LITTLE PRECIP AND ECMWF IN THE MIDDLE. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW. TEMPS DROPPING THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO MAY INITIALLY START
OUT AS LIGHT RAIN...THEN CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW AS THE NIGHT GOES
ON...ESPECIALLY NORTH. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING LATE
SUNDAY...GFS/ECMWF IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH PRECIP APPROACHING FROM
WEST...WHILE NAM IS AN OUTLIER WITH A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. FOR NOW
SIDED WITH THE GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK SYSTEM WILL PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH A SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SO WILL INCREASE
POPS SOME. EVEN COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SO LEFT
SOME UPSLOPE SNOW INTO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT STILL LOTS OF DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DID HAVE WINDS LAYING DOWN BRIEFLY THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME LOCAL LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR BEFORE SURFACE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN.

NO MAJOR TIME CHANGES ON THE FRONTAL CONVECTION.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...HELD ONTO SOME STRONGER GUSTS IN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES OF ABOUT 8 MB/3 HOURS.  THIS
WOULD AFFECT EARLY MORNING FLIGHTS AROUND 10-14Z. ALSO TRIED TO DROP
CEILINGS FOR A FEW HOURS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...BEFORE LIFTING.
POST FRONTAL CLOUDS SCATTER OUT IN THE SOUTH...BUT MAY HOLD WITH A
BROKEN CEILINGS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AFTER
18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION LINE AND FRONT MAY VARY
BY AN HOUR OR TWO. THIS COULD HAVE LARGE IMPACTS ON THE TAF GIVEN
THE SHORT DURATION OF THE CONVECTION.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       FRI 02/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EST 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...KTB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
526 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

WVZ010-011-018>020-027>032-037>040-046-047-212230-
PLEASANTS-TYLER-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-
HARRISON-TAYLOR-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
526 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

ALSO...WITH THE RECENT SNOW MELT...SWOLLEN SMALL STREAMS...AND
WET SOILS...FLOODING COULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IF
THAT THREAT INCREASES...A FLOOD WATCH WOULD BE POSTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>009-
013>017-024>026-033>036-212230-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-MINGO-
LOGAN-BOONE-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
526 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

ALSO...WITH THE RECENT SNOW MELT AND WET SOILS...FLOODING COULD
OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IF THAT THREAT INCREASES...A
FLOOD WATCH WOULD BE POSTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.