Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Riverton, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
213 PM MDT MON JUL 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

GENERAL ASCENT AHEAD OF OUR APPROACHING UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING SHEAR PROFILES ARE HELPING TO FIRE
STORMS OVER THE NW AND THE GENERAL PARAMETERS INCREASE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. ENOUGH PUNCH WITH THIS AREA OF FORCING TO MAKE IT TO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL WYOMING THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING. MAIN COMPLEX IS THE AREA TO WATCH.
STILL LOOKS LIKE GENTLE ASCENT 'ARM' WILL MOVE E ACROSS CENTRAL
WYOMING OVERNIGHT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER AS
NOTED YESTERDAY. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY WITH SE
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH UPPER LOW AND MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION DROPPING SE INTO CENTRAL WYOMING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH 50KT SPEED MAX. FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE AND CAPES THAT
SHOULD BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG (OR LOCALLY HIGHER) WILL LIKELY MAKE
FOR AN ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY WITH SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS QUITE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADIC STORM. WILL INCREASE POPS
TO ACCOMMODATE THIS THINKING AND HIT THE SEVERE WORDING IN THE MOST
FAVORED AREAS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

UPR LVLS WILL HAVE LARGE BROAD TROF ACROSS ERN CONUS...RIDGE WRN
COAST AND WY IN BETWEEN UNDER NW FLOW WITH RATHER STRONG UPR SW TROF
EMBEDDED AND MOVING TO THE SE THRU THE MAIN FLOW. THE SFC WILL HAVE
WELL DEVELOPED LOW WITH ALL ATTENDING FRONTS...WARM AND
COLD...ANCHORED ACROSS SRN WY WITH INCREASING RETURN FLOW FROM THE E
TO N OCCURRING AROUND THE E AND N SIDE OF THE LOW W/ DEEP SHEAR
QUITE STRONG UNDER THIS SAME LOCATION.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FCST...WITH
FOCUS FOR STRONGEST STORMS LYING FROM THE CNTRL FA TO THE E/NE
FA...WITH BEST OVERALL STORM DYNAMICS OCCURRING ACROSS ERN FREMONT
AND ALL OF NATRONA COUNTY. INCREASINGLY STABLE CONDITION TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THIS AREA...WITH WARM DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO
THE SOUTH AND OVR SWEETWATER COUNTY. TYPICAL STORM INDICATORS TUE
EVENING IN NATRONA COUNTY INCLUDE CAPE AOA 1200 J/KG...PWS AROUND AN
INCH +/-...MOIST LAPSE RATES 8-9 DEG C/KM...O-6 KM SHEAR FROM 40 TO
60 KTS AND PERHAPS EVEN HIGHER IN PLACES...0-3 KM HELICITY FROM
150-250 M^2/S^2. AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO PASS TO THE SE AND INTO
NRN CO THRU THE EVENING...FRONT WILL FOLLOW AND TEMPS WILL
DECREASE...AND ALONG WILL COOLING FROM STORMS AND PRECIP...LCLS WILL
LOWER FROM 6-7K FT TO AROUND 2-4K FT...WHICH MAY WELL COINCIDE WITH
BEST CHANCE FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. OTHERWISE...HEAVY RAIN W/POSSIBLE
FLASH FLOODING...LIMITED SEVERE HAIL (ONLY BECAUSE RATHER HIGH WBZ
HEIGHTS) ALONG WITH THE USUAL STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

WED AND BEYOND...OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT OF LONG RANGE MDLS...WITH A
SLIGHT BLIP OCCURRING ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...LINGERING SHOWERS AND TS
WED AS THE FA STILL FEELS THE EFFECTS OF THE UPR LVL SW TROF MOVING
S AND OUT OF THE CWA BY WED EVE. INCREASINGLY STABLE CONDITIONS AND
COOLER TEMPS WILL KEEP CONTROL OF STORMS WITH RATHER RUN OF THE MILL
SHOWERS AND STORMS. MODEST RIDGING THU WITH LOW END CHCS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINLY OVR THE W/NW FORECAST AREA W/ A
LITTLE HELP FROM A WEAK RIDGE TOPPING SW RIDING OVERHEAD.
FRI...DIFFERENCES IN DEVELOPING AND HANDLING OF ANOTHER POTENTIAL SW
TROF EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW...WITH THE EURO BRUSHING THE NRN ZONES WITH
A LITTLE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE THE GFS HAS MORE BROADLY
SCATTERED DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION. NEITHER LOOK TO BE TOO
SIGNIFICANT IN THE WAY OF EVOLUTION ATTM. LATER SAT AND SUN...MDLS
CONVERGE TOWARDS SIMILAR SOLUTIONS FOR THE MOST PART W/ FLAT
RIDGING...MODEST WARMING AND A TRANSITION TO SW FLOW AS SW UPR HIGH
AND SFC LOW COMBINE TO START BUILDING A TYPICAL MONSOON-LIKE SET-UP
WHICH MAY START TO AFFECT THE FA NEXT WEEK...INCREASING OVR THE NEXT
FEW WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST WYOMING
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z BEFORE DECREASING TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WYOMING WITH MORE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE KJAC TERMINAL WILL BE
MOST EFFECTED WITH POTENTIAL GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...ESPECIALLY FOR
KCOD...KRIW...KLND AND KWRL MAKING IT TO KCPR AFTER 11Z TUESDAY.
TUESDAY WILL BE AN ACTIVE DAY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL WYOMING WITH THE KCPR...KRIW AND KLND TAFS SEEING THE
STRONGEST AND MOST NUMEROUS STORMS BUT ALL OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
WYOMING WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS SOME QUITE STRONG. MORE ISOLATED
GUSTY STORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST WYOMING THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS WITH SOME QUITE STRONG. MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST WYOMING. THE SOUTHWEST WILL SEE MORE ISOLATED STORMS BUT
WITH STRONG WEST WIND OF 25 TO 40 MPH AND LOW RH'S IN THE TEENS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PARK
AND TETON COUNTIES UNTIL 03Z.

&&

SHORT TERM...SKRBAC
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...SKRBAC
FIRE WEATHER...SKRBAC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
300 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014

WYZ001>020-022>030-151200-
ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS-BIGHORN MOUNTAINS SOUTHEAST-
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS WEST-CASPER MOUNTAIN-CODY FOOTHILLS-
EAST SWEETWATER COUNTY-FLAMING GORGE-
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND RATTLESNAKE RANGE-JACKSON HOLE-LANDER FOOTHILLS-
NATRONA COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-NORTH BIG HORN BASIN-
NORTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-OWL CREEK AND BRIDGER MOUNTAINS-
ROCK SPRINGS AND GREEN RIVER-SALT RIVER AND WYOMING RANGES-
SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHEAST BIG HORN BASIN-
SOUTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-SOUTHWEST BIG HORN BASIN-STAR VALLEY-
TETON AND GROS VENTRE MOUNTAINS-UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN-
UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN FOOTHILLS-UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN-
WIND RIVER BASIN-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS EAST-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS WEST-
YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK-
300 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
IN WESTERN WYOMING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TUESDAY...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THURSDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ELEVATED TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
COULD DEVELOP. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE URGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PHENOMENA
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THANK YOU.

TEAM RIVERTON

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