Special Weather Statement, NWS Reno, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
228 PM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. RAINFALL SHOULD
OCCUR IN MORE AREAS COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS CALIFORNIA. DRIER AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
WAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH A
DEFORMATION ZONE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80.  UNDER THE DEFORMATION
ZONE...CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS. TO THE SOUTH...HIGHER INSTABILITY DUE TO SURFACE
HEATING HAS PRODUCE A CLUSTER OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN CONCERN IS ALPINE AND NORTHERN MONO COUNTIES
WHERE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND MOIST SOILS MAY LEAD TO A FEW
MUD/ROCK SLIDES THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TODAY AND IT APPEARS THE
CLOUDS WITH DEFORMATION ZONE ARE ERODING. MAIN STORM THREATS ARE
GUSTY WINDS, HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

FOR TONIGHT, MONDAY AND TUESDAY, MAIN CONCERN SHIFTS TO THE JET
SEGMENT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DAY AND NIGHT UNTIL DRIER
AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER TODAY'S 12Z RUNS
DON'T HAVE AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS THE LAST TWO DAYS. IN ADDITION
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IN ANY WAVES TRACKING ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE JET AXIS. LATEST MODELS ONLY SHOW A WAVE PASSING
ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD
PLACE THE BEST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NORTH OF I-80. THOUGH
HEATING AND LINGERING MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO A SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF I-80. WITH THE JET MOVING NORTH
STORM MOTIONS WILL INCREASE TO UP TO 20 MPH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS RAINFALL REACHING THE GROUND AND A HIGHER
CHANCE FOR NEW FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING STRIKES. GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL ARE THE MAIN STORM THREATS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.  BRONG

.LONG TERM...

ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. DID
ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM STARTING SUNDAY FOR THE SIERRA
IN MONO COUNTY. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST CONTINUES AS DESCRIBED IN
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ELIMINATE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM MID
WEEK INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BECOMES ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS WILL DISRUPT THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FLUX AS IT DEFORMS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN RESULTING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND FASTER AFTERNOON WINDS. CURRENTLY WATCHING
THE POTENTIAL OF A JET STREAK FORMING OVER THE SIERRA. HOLDING OFF
ON RAISING WIND SPEEDS FURTHER FOR NOW, BUT WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE
WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF. HIGHS WILL APPROACH TRIPLE DIGITS FOR
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON BUILD-UPS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIND THE BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE OCCURRING ON
SUNDAY, HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA
AND LONG VALLEY CALDERA RIM. MAY NEED TO ADD SOME FOR SATURDAY IF
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO TREND WARMER.  BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS ON TAP FOR TODAY. COVERAGE
COULD ACTUALLY BE HIGHER THAN SATURDAY AND STORM MOTIONS BEGIN TO
INCREASE. MONDAY ALSO LOOKS LIKE A SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DAY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...WITH LESSER COVERAGE SOUTH OF 50. FOR
BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY THE PRIMARY THREATS TO AVIATION WILL BE
TURBULENCE AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF TSTMS ALONG
WITH GUSTY SFC WINDS TO NEAR 45 KTS. LARGE HAIL IN AND NEAR TSTM
CORES IS ALSO A THREAT ALONG WITH LIGHTNING. WILL NEED TO INCLUDE
VCTS FOR MOST TERMINALS TODAY AND APPROACH AND DEPARTURE ROUTES WILL
LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THERE IS LESS CHANCE OF TSTMS TUESDAY...AND MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50. BY WEDNESDAY THE CHANCE FOR TSTMS IS CLOSE TO ZERO...BUT THERE
SHOULD BE STRONGER SFC WINDS BY THEN AND THAT COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
CROSS WINDS EAST OF THE SIERRA IN THE AFTERNOON. 20/BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

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