Special Weather Statement, NWS Reno, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
238 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. RAINFALL SHOULD
OCCUR IN MORE AREAS COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS CALIFORNIA. DRIER AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS MINERAL AND MONO
COUNTIES AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CENTERED JUST WEST OF LAS
VEGAS. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTH, SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THIS MORNING MAINLY SOUTH OF A LOVELOCK-SUSANVILLE LINE WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THIS AREA WILL WEAKEN BY
MIDDAY, BUT WITH STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ARRIVING BY THIS AFTERNOON, THE AIR MASS SHOULD RELOAD WITH
CONVECTION REDEVELOPING EVEN THOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO INITIALLY
FORM SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE NEAR THE SIERRA BETWEEN SOUTH TAHOE AND BRIDGEPORT. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY NEARLY ALL OF THE REGION IS FAIR GAME FOR
SEEING SOME ACTIVITY. CELL MOTION WILL BE FASTER SO INDIVIDUAL
CELLS ARE LESS LIKELY TO DROP HEAVY RAIN IN A SINGLE LOCATION, BUT
IF MULTIPLE CELLS TRACK OVER THE SAME LOCATION OR PERSIST FOR A
LONGER DURATION, THEN LOCAL FLOODING MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE.

SREF CAPE VALUES ARE MODERATE (GENERALLY BETWEEN 300-700 J/KG) BUT
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY, SO THIS WOULD DECREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
INTENSE STORMS. OVERALL, THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE OF THE REGION
RECEIVING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL INCREASE, BUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING OR SIGNIFICANT HAIL IS ACTUALLY LOWER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.

FOR TONIGHT, THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS
TO AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH WHERE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE IS MORE LIKELY TO CONTINUE. ELSEWHERE, ACTIVITY
SHOULD WIND DOWN ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE
SINCE THE MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.

FOR MONDAY, THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL
JET DYNAMICS INCREASE AHEAD OF UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST, WHILE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE. THE 500 MB FLOW
BACKS A BIT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DELAYS
THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR TO THE SIERRA, SO THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR A FEW CELLS FORMING OVER TAHOE AND PARTS OF ALPINE/MONO
COUNTIES MAINLY BEFORE 00Z BEFORE GETTING PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTH
AND EAST. CAPE VALUES INCREASE A BIT AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
BECOME MUCH STRONGER COMPARED TO TODAY, SO THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE CELLS WITH A LONGER LIFE SPAN,
ESPECIALLY AS THEY PUSH EAST OF RENO AND INTO THE WEST CENTRAL NV
BASIN. FARTHER NORTH INTO NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV, BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE
FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET SETS UP OVERHEAD.

ON TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST EJECTS INLAND WITH A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND
WESTERN NV. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING ONE MORE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED AND FASTER MOVING STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. GIVEN THE CURRENT TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE, CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN MORE QUICKLY DURING THE
EVENING, AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS FINALLY RETURNS TO THE
REGION. MJD

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
VERY MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS CYCLE.
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN.

DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE PAC NW WED/THURS WITH INCREASED
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY. WINDS MAY BE BREEZY OR A
LITTLE STRONGER OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
WITH A DECREASE IN HUMIDITY THIS COULD LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LOW PULLS AWAY AND RIDGE BEGINS TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH HIGHS NEAR 100 IN THE
WRN NV VALLEYS AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS.
RIGHT NOW MODELS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT WITH RIDGE BECOMING ORIENTED MORE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST IT WOULD STAND TO REASON THAT MOISTURE WOULD BEGIN TO BE
DRAWN BACK NORTHWEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH BY SATURDAY.
IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAT A RETURN TO AFTERNOON TSTMS IS POSSIBLE
BY NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 20
&&

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS ON TAP FOR TODAY. COVERAGE
COULD ACTUALLY BE HIGHER THAN SATURDAY AND STORM MOTIONS BEGIN TO
INCREASE. MONDAY ALSO LOOKS LIKE A SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DAY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...WITH LESSER COVERAGE SOUTH OF 50. FOR
BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY THE PRIMARY THREATS TO AVIATION WILL BE
TURBULENCE AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF TSTMS ALONG
WITH GUSTY SFC WINDS TO NEAR 45 KTS. HAIL IN AND NEAR TSTM CORES
IS ALSO A THREAT ALONG WITH LIGHTNING. WILL NEED TO INCLUDE VCTS
FOR MOST TERMINALS TODAY. APPROACH AND DEPARTURE ROUTES WILL LIKELY
BE AFFECTED BY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS WELL.

THERE IS LESS CHANCE OF TSTMS TUESDAY...AND MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50. BY WEDNESDAY THE CHANCE FOR TSTMS IS CLOSE TO ZERO...BUT THERE
SHOULD BE STRONGER SFC WINDS BY THEN AND THAT COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
CROSS WINDS EAST OF THE SIERRA IN THE AFTERNOON. 20
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
916 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014

CAZ073-201715-
MONO-
916 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2014

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY...

AT 915 AM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN INYO COUNTY...MOVING NORTHWEST
AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING...MODERATE RAIN...SMALL PEA SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY
WINDS TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS. THE BISHOP AIRPORT HAS
REPORTED A WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED THROUGH 1015 AM PDT INCLUDE...BENTON...BENTON
  HOT SPRINGS...CHALFANT...CROWLEY LAKE...MAMMOTH LAKES AND MAMMOUTH
  MOUNTAIN.

HIKERS AND CAMPERS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IN A VEHICLE IF POSSIBLE.
TENTS AND TREES ARE UNSAFE SHELTERS DURING THUNDERSTORMS. STAY AWAY
FROM CREEKS AND STREAMS AS WATER LEVELS MAY RISE RAPIDLY NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3747 11879 3747 11886 3755 11894 3757 11902
      3768 11908 3794 11850 3747 11786 3745 11793
      3745 11877
TIME...MOT...LOC 1614Z 147DEG 22KT 3748 11825 3717 11895

BRONG