Alert archive / North Carolina / Special Weather Statements in 2014

Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

August 12, 20144 counties in North Carolina

NWS Raleigh, NC issued this special weather statement at Aug 12, 2014, 9:13 PM EDT for 4 counties in North Carolina. It was in force for 62 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 12, 2014, 9:13 PM EDT (01:13 UTC)
Expired: Aug 12, 2014, 10:15 PM EDT
In force: 62 min
Issued by: NWS Raleigh, NC

Counties Edgecombe County, NC, Nash County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC

The radar

The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 81 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 00:00Z, 1.2 hours before the alert went out and 129 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1726 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -20 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 803 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 19 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 50 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 49 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Aug 12, 8:30 PM EDT, 43 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 12, 8:30 PM EDT, 43 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
830 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE
TONIGHT...EXITING THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 248 PM TUESDAY...

WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION... WITH LOWER 80S
TEMP/LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS NEAR THE VA BORDER AND MID 80S/70S
DEWPOINTS NEAR THE SC BORDER. LOW CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING HAVE
BROKEN AND LIFTED... ALLOWING INCREASE IN SURFACE HEATING AND
CONSEQUENT INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG
ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP MOSTLY IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. EXPECT
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES...  AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL. HIRES MODEL RUNS
FOLLOW THIS TREND WELL... DEVELOPING SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE
WEST... BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AND DIMINISHING/MOVING
EASTWARD BY 06Z. BEST SHEAR AND LIFT REMAINS TO THE NORTH WITH THE
JET...  AND THE PREDOMINATE THUNDERSTORM MODE WILL BE SINGLE
CELL/PULSE TYPE... WITH MARGINAL SHEAR OF 20-25 KTS POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING A FEW MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/MULTICELLS WHICH MAY
GENERATE A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE AREA... HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT... ENTERING INTO THE TRIAD
AROUND 03Z... AND NEAR THE NC COAST BY 12Z. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY... WITH DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO ENTER THE
AREA BY DAYBREAK... AND LEADING TO A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. LOWS
IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...

A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.

A L/W TROUGH ANCHORED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE LEAD S/W AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT PROJECTED TO
EXIT OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND
PROFILE OFF MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A DEEP WLY FLOW WITH A NW FLOW IN
THE LOWEST 5000FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS SET-UP SHOULD RESULT IN A
DISSIPATION/DIMINISHING OF TEH CLOUD COVERAGE WEST-TO-EAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY LATE MORNING/MID DAY.
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL WIND WILL NEGATE/OFFSET INITIAL
CAA. WITH TEMPS STARTING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S NW-MID 70S SE...A 15-
18 DEGREE DIURNAL TEMP TREND RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S NW
TO AROUND 90 FAR SOUTH-SE. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT BY AFTERNOON...AND IN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN
AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY MIXES THROUGH THE COLUMN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED OVER THE MS VALLEY EXTENDING EAST INTO NC.
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IN TANDEM WITH THE BASE OF TEH L/W TROUGH OVER
OUR REGION WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
GFS HINTS AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER
GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE 850-
700MB...ESSENTIALLY CAPPING THE ATMOSPHERE. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A
DRY FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES THROUGH THE PERIOD AVERAGE 10-15M BELOW
NORMAL. THIS SUGGEST MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPS NEAR 60-LOWER 60S. THE NORMAL COLDER LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE
MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY MORNING (UNLESS VEIL OF HIGH
CLOUDS OCCURS...POSSIBLY CAUSED BY OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT/MOUNTAIN
WAVE...THOUGH MID LEVEL WINDS APPEAR A TAD TOO WEAK AT THIS TIME).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD SATURDAY THEN SLOWLY
WEAKEN AS L/W TROUGH WEAKENS AND LIFTS NWD. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY LATE SATURDAY AND MORE SO SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO MIXTURE OF SUN/CLOUDS BUT
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND WILL BE ISOLATED...AND CONFINED
TO NEAR THE SEABREEZE...AND EXITING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN NC.  THREAT APPEARS HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SE
COUNTIES IN VICINITY OF THE SEABREEZE. THREAT STILL APPEARS TOO LOW
TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AT THIS TIME.

ENOUGH MOISTURE/DESTABILIZATION SHOULD EXISTS BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN TEH AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING HOURS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST A S/W IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM TRAVERSING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF LIFTING
THIS BALL OF ENERGY E-NE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WHILE THE GFS (WHICH IS FASTER BY 18 HOURS)...MAINTAINS A DECENT
SHEAR AXIS INTO NC MONDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY NIGHT. IF THIS WERE TO
VERIFY...THIS WOULD WARRANT A MUCH HIGH POP.

TEMPS SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 830 PM TUESDAY...

A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
NC ATTM...RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR THESE STORMS.
ELSEWHERE...VFR OR HIGH MVFR CIGS ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL NC.  LOOK FOR THIS TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATER OVERNIGHT. FLT CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AFT SUNRISE.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...SEC
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...NP/SEC

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 12, 4:34 AM EDT, 16 hours 39 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
434 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-130845-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
434 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL...SOME MINOR
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...MAINLY IN
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 12, 7:33 PM EDT, 1 hour 40 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
733 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

NCZ026-027-041>043-130030-
WAKE-FRANKLIN-NASH-WILSON-JOHNSTON-
733 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF EASTERN
WAKE...FRANKLIN...NASH...WESTERN WILSON AND JOHNSTON COUNTIES UNTIL
830 PM EDT...

AT 732 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BUNN TO
NEAR ANGIER...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RALEIGH...ROCKY MOUNT...SMITHFIELD...NASHVILLE...LOUISBURG...
WILSON...WAKE FOREST...GARNER...FUQUAY-VARINA AND CLAYTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
50 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL OR WEAKENED TREES AND
BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

&&

LAT...LON 3625 7813 3621 7811 3620 7800 3619 7797
      3618 7792 3617 7792 3614 7789 3615 7781
      3615 7775 3613 7772 3614 7771 3611 7771
      3559 7803 3560 7806 3542 7816 3538 7816
      3556 7878 3627 7830
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 293DEG 15KT 3603 7827 3554 7869

23

Local storm report, Aug 12, 7:48 PM EDT, 1 hour 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
748 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0716 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ENE RDU INTERNATIONAL 35.89N  78.71W
08/12/2014                   WAKE               NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FOUR TREES DOWN ON COUNTRY TRAIL RD

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1401626

NP

Local storm report, Aug 12, 8:34 PM EDT, 39 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
834 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0821 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SE RALEIGH            35.80N  78.62W
08/12/2014                   WAKE               NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            REPORTS OF CARS FLOODED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
            ATLANTIC AVE AND OLD LOUISBURG RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1401627

NP

Local storm report, Aug 12, 8:54 PM EDT, 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
854 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0847 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E RALEIGH             35.81N  78.62W
08/12/2014                   WAKE               NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            AT LEAST ONE CAR FLOODED AT THE INTERSECTION OF
            ATLANTIC AVE AND HODGES ST. FLOODING ONGOING. THIS
            INTERSECTION IS ADJACENT TO CRABTREE CREEK.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1401628

NP

Local storm report, Aug 12, 8:57 PM EDT, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
857 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0839 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 ESE RALEIGH           35.80N  78.62W
08/12/2014                   WAKE               NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            CEMETARY CREEK AND PIGEON HOUSE CREEK IS OUT OF ITS
            BANK NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF CAPITAL BLVD AND DENNIS
            AVENUE. WATER RESCUES IN PROCESS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1401629

CBL

Special weather statement, Aug 12, 9:13 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
913 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

NCZ027-028-042-043-078-130215-
NASH-WAYNE-WILSON-EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-
913 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NASH...NORTHEASTERN WAYNE...WILSON...EDGECOMBE AND EASTERN JOHNSTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM EDT...

AT 913 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR ROCKY
MOUNT TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF GOLDSBORO...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROCKY MOUNT...GOLDSBORO...TARBORO...NASHVILLE...WILSON...ELM CITY...
FREMONT...DORTCHES...BAILEY AND MICRO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH
CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

&&

LAT...LON 3582 7735 3583 7739 3581 7742 3580 7747
      3576 7752 3557 7782 3543 7783 3539 7780
      3533 7782 3535 7836 3607 7802 3606 7754
      3604 7753 3604 7747 3600 7743 3600 7741
      3590 7734
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 263DEG 32KT 3594 7773 3545 7803

The office that day

Everything else NWS Raleigh, NC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 12, 8:36 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	RAH	Johnston	3 hr
Aug 12, 9:05 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	RAH	Johnston	3 hr
Aug 12, 9:50 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	RAH	Wake	115 min
Aug 12, 9:53 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	RAH	Edgecombe, Wayne, Wilson	112 min
Aug 12, 10:43 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	RAH	Wake	6 hr
Aug 13, 3:57 AM EDT	River Flood Warning	RAH	Johnston	48 hr
Aug 13, 4:52 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	RAH	Wake	3 hr
Aug 13, 7:02 AM EDT	River Flood Warning	RAH	Johnston	23 hr

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in North Carolina, 2014 Every special weather statement in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.